I would define it as:
Horses who have only foreign races showing. Like all starts in UK, Ireland, Japan, etc then shipping into todays race. And still if he has 1 NA race and then goes back to his/her homeland I would still consider that horse foreign.

Handicapping Wise
1) Straight maiden races with 0 starts for all starters (obviously, lol)
2) Some maiden horses have started, but 2+ horses are FTS
3) Races where starters have 0 Beyers/BRIS figures but have starts
4) multiple foreign horses in races (excludes Breeders Cup)
5) smaller fields= no honest value (in a way for me)

Betting Wise
1) Races where the favourite will drown the value down of the race (1/9 shot= no value race etc.)
2) Where my top pick has a lower % chance of winning
3) Where my exotic horses have a lower % chance of winning/hitting the ticket

Top 3 morning line odds
:5: Tapit Trice 5-1
:14: Angel of Empire 8-1
:15: Forte 3-1

Fair Odds (mine)
:5: Tapit Trice 6-1
:14: Angel of Empire 8-1
:15: Forte 2-1

I will post an update on the entire fields odds as well as have an analysis of my Top 4 picks this weekend
Those 3 above will probably change the odds but I still like Forte at 2-1 even at 3-1 is ok

Thanks Conley!! — Tony Kofalt

No problem Tony :)

For anyone interested in chart handicapping, on YouTube there is a video called Handicapping Horses Chart Handicapping by Derbyologist Horse Racing. It is 10:26 long. I think it is worth the view. — RanchWest

https://youtu.be/qRD1OOXbwdY

Thanks Ranch! Link is above of the video he was talking about

I remember one day at the track I told a guy I was going to bet two horses to win. He laughed and told me you can't make money betting two horses to win. I laughed and told him that last race I bet three horses and hit a $51 horse.

It isn't where you start... it is where you end up. — RanchWest

There are certain situations like what I was saying above where you can bet 2-3 horses and the situation above seems like a valid reasoning of when you can bet that or not

When you Dutch 2 (or more) horses, the goal is to make the same return no matter which horse wins.

In my experience, because of late odds changes - which shift the ultimate winner's odds down - the end result is too much on the loser and too little on the winner. — Dave Schwartz

I get it now my apologies for not fully understanding now thank you

Now to answer your question I think I am betting the horses in the correct proportions but rarely do I bet 2 or 3 horses to win

Do you find that you are consistently betting the horses in the correct proportions or are you betting less on the winners than you should? — Dave Schwartz

Sorry I’m being dumb on this but can you explain this more so I can fully understand thanks.

What odds do you use to Dutch? — Dave Schwartz

I usually like to wait for overlays on the horses I like then plug in the info into this calculator
Use morning line in the calculator though not live odds
https://web.archive.org/web/20191031132347/http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/dutching_calculator.asp

Hope that makes sense I couldn't find the link but found it now

Here is my betting strategy

WPS
Really like a horse with a high% of hitting: Win Bet
Like a horse but need back up in case it does not win: Win/Place/Show
10-1+ Longshot: Win/Place
Like 2 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
Like 3 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets

For the Dutch Win Bets I try first to narrow it down to 1 horse but if it is too close to call then I would head on over to Full Card Reports dutching calculator and enter in the info to get the suggested wagering amounts

I do play Exactas and Superfectas too nothing else like Trifectas or Daily Doubles or Pick 3/4/5/6's unless I feel fully confident in those

I use the results charts for a couple of different handicapping reasons

1) To make speed and pace figures using final times of the race and/or points of call
2) To check for biases during the card of racing to see if any horses were advantaged or disadvantaged
3) To note any run ups or any temp rails that were up in certain races and track conditions
4) To check the comments/footnotes to see how the chart caller saw the race vs my point of view
5) To see if any next out winners were shown

All this creates 3 things for me
1) Figures for Speed and Pace
2) Track bias notes
3) Track profiles

If you can sit down and do this each day your favourite track(s) are on I guarantee you that this can help improve the way you look at handicapping the races and also help avoid the bad biases and angles

Thanks Tony for the great topic starter! Happy Friday!

Thanks ranch! Hope you enjoyed my friend!

Thanks William Tony and Dave!

Hopefully you enjoyed and will try to get on a few more times this year (pending approval :) )

Happy birthday Dave thanks for the help you have given me and others about your expertise in the world of horse racing! Cannot wait to share more ideas together in the near future

Happy Holidays to all on the forum

Here’s to a very successful, winning and GREEN 2023!

Same here when I can get it on my iPad I also use FoxIt (Thanks Tom)

But I'm still a hard copy guy though with needing it printed in either my own printing or right from the DRF newspaper

Profit is a Profit no matter how small! Now I'm sounding like Dr. Seuss lol

Nice pickings Ranch

That’s pretty sweet actually how ThoroBrain did such a thing

Thanks Tony

Yes always I have thought to get AI to make me rich lol

But in all seriousness, I think that AI will most definitely help anyone in this game and there are probably a lot of ways that AI can be used to handicap and find the winners

AI can also be used to make new handicapping products for the public which I would find fascinating for the possibilities that this can have whether that be past performances or selections etc

See what the future of AI has in store for us!

A friend sent me 10 years of NBA data in exactly what I wanted. — Dave Schwartz

Does that friend also want to share it with a guy who may consider building a better model for NBA? :lol: