Since Texas does not allow ADW's, the easiest way for me to follow the action is with Twinspires on my phone while my program is up on my PC.

Hilarious!
:razz: :rofl: — Dave Schwartz

Man, if that's funny, just wait until you hear my comedy routine!

That's the pronunciation of the two words. For instance, it is NOT log-it.

For anyone wondering as I was, LOH-jit, prä-bət.

Yep, I am getting pretzel brain already, but hopefully I can wade through it.

My BRIS Multicaps file showed that race as All-weather (tapeta).

If you have an example, I will check it out.

My data has a separate indicator for "all weather"... BRIS. I don't follow GP much, so I am not certain that the data is accurate.

The foreign horse in R8 went out 2nd early and was taken up.

Thanks, Tony.

#1 stayed closer than usual and closed the deal in R8.

Musical America didn't even have the lead at any call and faded to 4th.

I like experiments. So, in the 8th at TDN, I set up a 50% flat with the dutching based on my odds line. I liked 1A, 2, 5, 9. The 2 was a 4/5 favorite that I felt might be vulnerable.

So, the dutched wager amounts were 4 on 1A, 8 on 2, 4 on 5 and 5 on 9.

The final odds were 24/1 on the 1, 4/5 on the 2, 7/1 on the 5 and 4/1 on the 9. Any but the 2 would return a profit.

They finished 1A-9-2-5 with the 1A paying $51.20 for a return of $102.40 on the $21 selection.

My point here is that this is the way that a dutch looks when it turns out really well.

A better paying but more risky option would have been a dime super, which paid $185.96.

Okay, so the 4 is scratched in R8. That will relieve some pressure on QF75.

There is the matter of Pletcher's #5 having debuted on turf followed by two all-weather trips and now returning to turf off his three foreign races. A bit of an unknown factor.

In R8, the ML fave looks to be likely closest early to QF75, but I don't think can go on late. I see that as a positive for QF75, but he will still have to hold off the late rush from 6, 7, 3, 9, 8.

Here's my time decayed BRIS pace on those two for 2F, 4F, 6F and LT
R4:
Musical America 205 218 204 114
R8
Q F Seventy Five 190 191 201 177

So, I'd say Musical America is very likely to fade.
Q F Seventy Five has a much better chance of closing the deal. Of course, on the turf it is tougher for the speed to hold. But my pace line is the 4th line and if you don't mind it being slightly over a year old, it suggests that this one looks good in this field. My form factors all look good on this one and the BRIS Prime Power is third highest in the field. I would include him on a horizontal.

Does it violate any rules or laws?

My odds line is currently using the BRIS pace from 4F and LT from my selected pace line. The decayed pace of the last 4 races might be a good element to the odds line... I certainly use it in my handicapping.

Race 4 at CD, a classic chaos race. Formal Order got up at 9/1 off a 5/1 ML and 9/1 PL.

If you just watched R3 at BEL, it was easy to predict that heavily bet Tekila would fold like an ogi, based on the decayed LP figure.