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  • A different speed rating
    Is that 8/1 on the tote board?
  • Early is overbet?
    This horse was also the #1 BRIS Prime Power horse!
  • Percentages & Probabilities 2022 Seminar
    Biniak & RanchWest - Make sure that you really understand what's on the videos. It contains a completely different way of looking at IV Tables. — Dave Schwartz

    Yes, I am almost half way through. I have a lot going on right now, so I am only able to watch a bit at a time.
  • Percentages & Probabilities 2022 Seminar
    I am just now diving into this. Anyone find any gems? I had forgotten about MRCT. Looks like it might be useful.
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    $3 Turf P3 paid $551.10.

    I should have had that 3rd leg, but take could've, would've and should've in one hand and $1 in the other and you can buy yourself a doughnut.
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    9) 11 5 8 7 — RanchWest

    Finish 3 12 11 8 5

    Missed the P3, mine ran 3rd, 4th, 5th..
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    In the Beaumont, my picks are

    2 1 7 4
    — RanchWest

    Finished 7 2 5 1, even money winner.
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    In the Beaumont, my picks are

    2 1 7 4
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    7) 7 1 8 2 — RanchWest

    Finshed 2 7 4 6

    A lot of people probably singled the 7, so it is looking like the P3 will have a nice pay. On to leg 3.
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    If I may, I'll add a pick for R6

    9 5 2 12
    — RanchWest
    finish 11-6-1-12

    I should have recognized that this one would fall apart. On that basis, the 1, 6 and 12 figure for me, but I don't think I could have gotten the 11. 11 did have a hot jockey/trainer combo. The 1 came from last.
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    If I may, I'll add a pick for R6

    9 5 2 12
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    R5) 6 1 3 7
    I missed the favorite in second.
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    I'll toss in some picks:

    5) 3 7 6 10
    7) 7 1 8 2
    9) 11 5 8 7
  • Has the Kentucky Derby winner already run his last prep?
    In case I was not clear, I am not in any way trying to be critical of Conley. He put in a lot of work on those stats and I think they are well worth careful consideration. And, as Tony said, certainly a great read.
  • Has the Kentucky Derby winner already run his last prep?
    Hopefully there are a few gems among what Conley put together.

    For no valid reason, it does bring to mind the sort of thing a local radio guy would say. When this team comes off a win and plays on Monday in an east coast city against a team that has lost two in a row and has not won a Monday game in 4 years... you get the idea. lol
  • Has the Kentucky Derby winner already run his last prep?
    Thanks, Conley. Very interesting.
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    I think it was also significant that #4 waited 40 days to come back and in that time had one 3f work 4 days prior to today.

    The pace was also a factor, but I think the speed/form cycle pattern is still significant.
  • Chaos
    Tom brought up today's 8th at TAM as the favorite being a good bet against. So, I looked at the race and the chaos pattern is opposite of what has previously been discussed in this thread. The %M's of this race suggest that the field likes to expend their energy early, very early. My chaos number is 1.57, very low. The early horses tired and once again the horses that had recently shown an ability to close came in. The 2 and 7 were the closers. The 2 paid $41.20 to win and the 2-7 exacta paid $96.30.

    But pace doesn't work. <wink><wink>
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    Good call on 8TAM, Tom. #2 paid $41.20 as the fave finished 4th.
  • Selecting Pacelines: How Do You Do It?
    I'll try the 1, 5/1 at 10 MTP.
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