I was thinking along the lines of how did you arrive at the original First Step settings (30% object weight and object #55) and how did determine that Parx needed a different object and then determine what object to select?

Thanks again.

Dave R,

Thanks for sharing. Could you possibly share some insights as to how you determined the initial Final Step setting and (e.g. in the case of Parx) how you determined which settings to change,

Thank you in advance.

Also keep in mind that about two-thirds of winners are bet down (admittedly from the morning line, not the AI line).

Hope this helps.

I see it mainly as a way of identifying that "somebody (whale or not) might know something and therefore I have to consider the horse.

Not sure about the 50% bet down (although I'll research it now that you've mentioned it). Agree that the +10 is solid.

Agree with everything that ponyplayer said above. Another tactic is concentrating (at lease initially) on horses that are bet way down from their AI line. For these horses then try including additional factors such as rank and margin and grade (I've found that horses in the "A" range tend to do well). As you get better with experience you will come up with other ideas, broadening and improving your approach.

Hope this helps.

Thanks, guys. The strategy as outlined by ponyplayer accurately captures the spirit and essence of the strategy. A couple of quick fine points:

1. Although a BALO is highly preferred, it is not absolutely necessary. Depending on the other factors (tote, rank and margin, and grade) I will consider eliminating a 1 1 horse with a grade of F or D-.

2. I will also (again, depending on the factors cited above) sometimes consider betting an A- horse that is betting.

After a while you will get a feel for these and other fine points.

Hope this helps and feel free to ask any questions.

I'll be there and looking forward to it.

Hi Jim M:

Quick Question: I was looking at the del02 race and given the large field size there were quite a few above natural odds. How did you decide which ones to bet (or did you bet them all, which would still result in a profit)?

Thanks in advance.

Hi Guys:

In today's meeting where Dave emphasized (via the Monty Hall problem) using a non-AI contender selection process, I recalled that I have spent several years away from handicapping and therefore really did not have a "core process". (Although I find that what we did today using the whales option intriguing).
Does anybody have any ideas for me finding a "core process".

Thank you in advance.

Hi guys, Neal Freedman from Philadelphia, but born and raised in Baltimore not far from Pimlico. My day job is as an actuary, so I always had a fascination with numbers and probabilities. Been playing the horses on and off for several decades. Looking to add to my upcoming retirement and look forward to meeting and working with meeting and working with all of you.

Hi Dave.