I find that if a BALO is present, it tends to be a more chaotic race vs. a less chaotic race. Larger fields, more chaotic conditions, tepid favorites in general, etc. In some ways, it is also useful as a race selection filter.

My data is now updated through 7/28/24. Here is the breakdown of finishing position of all BALO's. Remember some races have multiple BALO's:

1st - 665 (25%)
2nd - 517 (19.5%)
3rd- 414 (15.5%)
4th - 331 (12.5%)
x (5th or worse) - 728 (27.5%)
Total - 2,655 horses

As I said in another reply, these horses command a 28% expected win rate according to my proprietary projected odds metric.

I can't answer this exact question as I did not track Dave's AI Odds, but I do have my own proprietary projected odds that do a good job projecting closing odds (accounting for takeout and other horses within a given race).

My data is now updated through 7/28/24. BALO's win at exactly 25% rate. My projected odds converted to probabilities comes to 28.5% for the BALO's. Across so many races, this is a very good indication of identifying horses who will no live up their closing prices.

Yes, please give me a few days to summarize.

Maybe I worded it poorly, but it should be the same as Dave's. Any chink in the armor is a BALO. Any magnitude that is not a 1 is a BALO.

I didn't post it, but the more BALO's in the race....the more the opportunity. Double BALO's do seem like the sweet spot since there are not many races with 3+ BALO's. But instead of one over-bet horse at around 2.9-1, you have two. That's a pool you want to be in.

the output meaning the outcome of the race and the associated factors of the winners?

Dave,

It sounds like your 3,600 systems using TDA overlap races within your "1 segment of data." Is that correct? In simpler terms, you trained 3,600 clusters of overlapping race samples based on a rule-based approach that I assume groups similar races. Am I in the ballpark?