Yes, but what are you going to do with it that I haven't already shared?

I'm not sure what you're asking for. Didn't I just share the results with you? Or am i confused?

Their win rate is 22%. I collected all of this manually, so I sacrificed depth for breadth. As described, I only looked at if they failed to have a magnitude of 1 in the AI BH, Pace E, Pace EP, Pace LP, or Pace SR.

Hey guys,

6 months later and long overdue, I wanted to give an update on my BALO analysis. Over time I was able to test "chink in the armor" BALO's from 11/1/23 to 9/22/24. I was able to track 10,560 BALO's during that period. At some point, I gave up on small tracks (diminishing returns) and focused only on the following tracks: AQU, CD, CNL, DMR, ELP, FG, GG, GP, HAW, IND, KD, KEE, LRC, LRL, MED, MTH, OP, PIM, PRX, SA, SAR, TAM, TP, WO.

Of the 10,560 BALO's, they return $0.776 per $1 dollar wager. These BALO's go off at odds of 3-1 on average.

As a reminder, the definition of a BALO is magnitude 1 horse according to the AI Line, but not a magnitude 1 horse in either the AI BH, Pace E, Pace EP, Pace LP, or Pace SR.

Personally, I use some of my own proprietary data to filter these BALO's to where they return about $0.74 per $1 dollar wagered. I'm sure there's other ways w/in DET for you to find the best BALO's to fade.

My question to the group is what other BALO methods are being used by others? I might have the data accessible to test further BALO theories.

Dennis

Is there a video describing how to segment the low odds to find the below results? What are you using within DET or HSH to find the 22% of races that has a fave losing -16%?

6. A Short Summary
A) 27% of races have TWO logical favs that will lose 22% EACH. (The 2-L races)
B) 22% of races have ONE fav who will lose 16%.
C) 49% of races have ONE fav who will lose less than 3%.
D) 2% of races have NO "known" fav to measure.

Thanks,

Dennis

I find that if a BALO is present, it tends to be a more chaotic race vs. a less chaotic race. Larger fields, more chaotic conditions, tepid favorites in general, etc. In some ways, it is also useful as a race selection filter.

My data is now updated through 7/28/24. Here is the breakdown of finishing position of all BALO's. Remember some races have multiple BALO's:

1st - 665 (25%)
2nd - 517 (19.5%)
3rd- 414 (15.5%)
4th - 331 (12.5%)
x (5th or worse) - 728 (27.5%)
Total - 2,655 horses

As I said in another reply, these horses command a 28% expected win rate according to my proprietary projected odds metric.

I can't answer this exact question as I did not track Dave's AI Odds, but I do have my own proprietary projected odds that do a good job projecting closing odds (accounting for takeout and other horses within a given race).

My data is now updated through 7/28/24. BALO's win at exactly 25% rate. My projected odds converted to probabilities comes to 28.5% for the BALO's. Across so many races, this is a very good indication of identifying horses who will no live up their closing prices.

Yes, please give me a few days to summarize.

Maybe I worded it poorly, but it should be the same as Dave's. Any chink in the armor is a BALO. Any magnitude that is not a 1 is a BALO.

I didn't post it, but the more BALO's in the race....the more the opportunity. Double BALO's do seem like the sweet spot since there are not many races with 3+ BALO's. But instead of one over-bet horse at around 2.9-1, you have two. That's a pool you want to be in.

the output meaning the outcome of the race and the associated factors of the winners?

Dave,

It sounds like your 3,600 systems using TDA overlap races within your "1 segment of data." Is that correct? In simpler terms, you trained 3,600 clusters of overlapping race samples based on a rule-based approach that I assume groups similar races. Am I in the ballpark?