I'm a firm believer in form cycles. In fact when I project a figure for a horse I almost always project improvement or regression from the last effort. Past races, some fairly old, are the basis for my projections. I often give more credit for a race from 4-6 months than I might the last 2-3 races. That's why I'm having trouble agreeing to time decay when it comes to speed and pace ratings.

Great discussion guys. I’m at the track watching horses work right now but I have a follow up point or 2 I will add later. But loved this exchange

Interesting discussion. Dave it feels like you believe there is some value in considering time decay. Do you feel that time decay plays a role in all metrics or just specific ones. For example, you mentioned time decay as it relates to measuring class. Would you feel the same if you were considering a final time speed figure?

Thanks Tom- can't wait to dig into this

Steven- I read the book some 25 years ago. I enjoyed reading everything Mark Cramer wrote. Like the old Cramer-Olmstead reports!!!
But I'm sorry to say I cant recall the contents of the book clearly. I can say that I enjoyed all his stuff. I will look through my library to see if I still have a copy laying around

Ken- win betting is a solid way to play. It’s most important to do what feels comfortable to you. If you’re not comfortable with your methodology it affects your decisions.

Hi Ken- I'm sorry it took a few days to reply.
I found both publications very interesting reads with somewhat conflicting approaches. To me the most important item was the session play explanation found on both documents. The concept of session play made perfect sense to me and 'felt' like a good fit for my psyche. I attempted to implement this approach as described by Dave in each document. Through trial and error I made some modifications that raised my confidence. For example, the percent of bankroll that I dedicate to each session is 5%. So my bankroll is broken into 20 sessions. This change greatly reduces the chance of 'tapping out'. i will admit that I probably went overboard with this change but it made feel comfortable and less likely to feel pressure when making selections and constructing tickets.
Of the two publications I was most intrigued with the progression concept in the Opponent Method. While I do not use the Opponent Method per se I do use a progressive style betting strategy that evolved from it. In short, I increase the number of units I wager after a number of losing plays.
I hope this helped you Ken. Please let me know if this did not answer your question

Little question that late odds changes can be very frustrating to us that wager. It's a very delicate issue for the industry as it pits 'perception' against valuable handle.
For us that wager, I've found that the most effective way to predict the finals odds is to utilize the 'will pays'. Take a moment each race and look at the will pays for P4's, P3's and DD's. If a horse is heavily bet in those pools expect that to be the case in the win pool, regardless of the odds a few minutes to post. While not a perfect solution I've found the results will give you very good idea of the 'off odds' in an upcoming race.

Love that story- thanks Steven

I've struggled with this one. I can see why owners flock to the most successful trainers. I totally understand that. Owners are making significant investments in the business and want their best shot at a good return.
But I do worry that this trend will tend to make the game less competitive. Fewer horses being bred, many being trained by the same big names feels like a recipe to shorter less competitive fields.

I saw that Conley and really appreciate your effort!! I was unaware of some of those options

Playing multi race horizontals I often come across races with one or more FTS. In order to help me navigate some of those races, I find this information helpful. 1) how did the horse work? Well within themselves? Tired or strong at the end of the work. Who did the horse work with!! This can be valuable with some of the bigger barns as they tend to pair horses of similar ability. If Chad Brown sees fit to work a FTS with one of his stake horses the FTS is probably talented.
I believe they serve a purpose as long as the clocker does his job well.

Dave- Are you calculating the Quirin speed points according to the rules set forth in Winning at the races? I'm only asking as I've seen some folks make subtle modifications to the rules. Thanks