Well we did substitute trainer win percentage for average class of the last 3 races but you have a good point. Roughly, how did they run?

I've been at this long enought to realize that a 100% mechanical method is probably not going to do it for most people (ask me how I know), but it could be a good starting place.

I'm open to adding something to the UOL program as long as it's not a multi-hour type deal so if anyone has any suggestions, let me know.

And I'm not really sure that a ML 30 / UOL 22 is a legitmate overlay.

Here is Toms Ultimate Odds Line V2.3. All odds are now shown not just the top 5, I updated the instructions to match the new output and also have included Toms Ultimate Odds Line pdf "how to".

As always, let me know if (when) you find any bugs or if you have questions.

Jim, I may have misinterpreted Tom's instructions so if you think it's worth it, I can change the program so All the horses get an odds line. It's an easy fix so don't worry about creating work.

I checked. While it says GPX, it is really OPX, but I did change the name and here it is.

And erratic is spelled erratic.

Dirt Routes

Dirt Sprints

Sorry guys, things are even more eratic than usually around here. Here is OPX 12.3.2021 to 12.31.2021.

If you notice such things, there is a new column Q1_LRS1_57. This is sort of a spot play where that looks for the horse with the number 1 Q Speed horse (top ranked regardless of number) that also has the best (top ranked) last race speed number. I'll post up sprints and routes next.

I’ve not looked at this yet but the software will only rank the top 5 horses, all others will be 100-1. And that is based on the horses cumulative rank in the 5 categories all as per Tom’s methodology ( ml odds is not a criteria) And then on top of all that, it is not a mathematical odds line.

I’ll have a look and see if something else is going on.

Great! And thanks!

Glad someone is using this.

Here is the latest version of TUOL (TOMS ULTIMATE ODDS LINE). I corrected the heading to be consistant with the version (V2.2 now), cleaned up the interface just a little bit (you may not even notice), updated the instructions and now Tom's PDF is included in the zipped file.

I think this one got Jim's comments incorporated.

I need to check a few things with the coding. 1). If the Score falls in between two Odds, which Odds are you defaulting to? For example, Scores 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28 etc. For example, if the Score is 16, is the Odds 6-1 or 7-1? Score 28, 3-1 or 7-2? Seems in Tom's examples he went both ways. I would recommend the lower, 16 = 6-1, and 28 = 7-2.
2). How are you Scoring multiple ties? For example, 102, 87, 81, 81, 81. [10 - 6 - ? - ? - ?]. For example, 20, 19, 16, 16, 15. [10 - 6 - ? - ? - ?]. Thanks, Jim.

It looks like I am using 16 = 7-1, 28 = 3-1 so I'm on the higher side.
I can get this changed to the lower side but please note that this in not high priority right now. I'll let you know when I get to it.

And....
102, 87, 81, 81, 81. [10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 4].
20, 19, 16, 16, 15. [10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 1].

Just to clear a thing or two/three...

For example:

If the speed ratings go

85
79
82
85
60
44
39
32
The rankings are line this

85 - 1
79 - 4
82 - 3
85 - 1
60 - 5
44 - 6
39 - 7
32 - 8

There is not "2" since #1 is tied. Numerical values would then be

85 -> 10
79 -> 2
82 -> 4
85 -> 10
60 -> 1
44 -> 0
39 -> 0
32 -> 0

No "6" rating due to there being no "2" ranking. I hope that's the issue.

And I fixed the LPLR and UOL thing. V2.0

That’s why I said “when you find a bug”. Let me look at what’s going on. Thanks.

Let's try version 1.9

Added ML and used trainer win percentage instead of average class last 3 races.

As always, let me know if and when you find a bug.

Jim, that's a good idea. It may be a day or two before I get back into this one but it looks like:

Adding the ML column
Using trainer win percentage instead of ACL3.

Modeling is far outside the scope of what I intended this project to be so nix this idea.

And, like trainer win percentage, morning line could also be substituted.

Trainer win percentage would be an easy substitution. We just need to maybe get a consensus.

I'm pretty sure I've seen most of those in the "Practical Handicapping" workshop. When Dave says "High level", he means "complicated formula, but not outside the scope of a spreadsheet handicapper".

And Ultimate is spelled Ultimate, not ulitmate. Spelllng was never my strung soot.