The gotcha races are the paceless races. Instinct says the horse that can go to the front should win. In actuality, the horse that goes to the front and is not comfortable on the front end backs up. A deep closer comes up at monster odds. It doesn't happen a lot, but one of those could skyrocket your P5.

Well, Quick Grid didn't exist until early this year, but I have a lot of confidence in the Alternate Running Style and the Pressure figure, which is an indicator of the likely early speed. The screen shot is actually from the next version of Quick Grid using the BRIS file from the first Saturday of 2022.

Note that Quick Grid had 6 E horses in 2022, whereas BRIS had only 1. The two early leaders were N/A horses that had run at Meydan. So, there were the foreign speed horses in addition to the E horses.

x

I don't do much handicapping of the Derby until after the post draw and data release. I'll try to put in my 2 cents later. I'm intrigued by your comment about one E7 after last year's rabbit meltdown.

Yes, the trainer is intentionally trying to skip a condition.

Interesting. I would think the horse still needs to have indicators that it is ready to step outside the maiden ranks.

This is why people who play BMW's (big money winners) can get burned. The horse wins the money at a lower class and then steps up and often is not competitive.

I think it would not necessarily have to be a maiden winner. Some horses step outside the maiden ranks before breaking their maiden.

Of course there could be a lot of things.

One that comes to mind is horses leaving the maiden ranks and running against winners for the first time... they need numbers that suggest they can be competitive at the new level.

Another is venue changes. There are some tracks where it is unlikely for horses from certain other tracks to win.

If you study trainer changes and patterns a lot, you might find ripe situations.

If you study the condition book, you may recognize that a horse is tuning up for an upcoming race.

Anybody have some other suggestions?

Dave, I agree, especially on the low end.

My line is based on the "best" horse. I find it interesting that it will be a ballpark figure for the eventual odds, but it has nothing to do with a wagering decision. "Best" horses can have many flaws and lose a lot.

I might be slightly influenced if I have a horse at 8/1 and it is 35/1 on the board, but not a lot.

Thanks, Tom.

While the program doesn't have some of the sophisticated tools that a program like HSH has, I think it does have fast ways of digging out important nuggets. And, I am working on more of those. It's got a lot of little things, like a grid with the silks and color of the horse to make it easier to watch a race.

Thanks, Jack. I am doing much better now. Still not perfect, but much better.

I had a constricted esophagus for years and lost from 179 to 120 pounds. Then I had undetected heart problems. Had quadruple bypass surgery last September.

I wish it could be different, but users will have to do their own program performance research. In the meantime, I make no wild claims. I just put some good factors out there to try .

i do want to point out that I do not in any way promote Quick Grid as being a selection program.

Quick Grid is a tool to assist in making selection decisions.

Jack, no, my health has been such that I have not been up to maintaining results or databases for quite some time. I have had portions of this program going for over 25 years, so I do have some insight as to which factors are best.

All I can tell you is my opinion on which are best.

The odds line favorite wins a lot, but usually at low prices. On chalky days, it will usually have about 50%..
The BPPELO has a high share of winners among those ranked in the top 5.
S-Factor has been very impressive, but a little chalky. It does get some horses in the 3/1 - 5/1 range and a very few higher.

The others catch a lot of winners, but the three listed above impress me the most.

If you track all of the different Scott form factors, you can find some valuable information, both positive and negative. Especially negative. Many years ago I tracked 133 different combinations. Some were pretty dreadful. For instance, N0-sg was 3 of 83, 3.6% with an avg mutuel of $7.47.

These are all from the Odds, Speed and Form sections. I'd say the best prices come from Pace and Class.

And they’re not just a little off. Often it is E to S or vice-versa. Very misleading. And I know that a lot of people really depend on the running styles.

Thanks, Dave. The program has a lot of unique or rare features. For instance, the past performances...

One of the Deep Dives is the Past Performances, a treasure trove of easy-to-read information. Its layout is similar to regular printed PPs, but with far more data and a few little bonuses. Next to "good" races is the word "GOOD".. no analyzing required. In the company line, there's no font manipulation, it actually says "NOW" for next out winners and "TDY" for horses in today's race. Next to comments, there is an asterisk (*) if the comment has word(s) that suggest a troubled trip. Lines that were run outside North America actually have the word "foreign" written out. And, not only are there the times of the leader, but also the times of the horse with each fraction plus the splits for every running line! And, previous trainers have a rating that is consistent with how the current trainer is rated on the Main Grid. And, the official finish position is clearly shown. Just a few of the features!

Another unique offering is the Alternate Running Style. The published running styles are often wrong.

I tried to do what Dave does... I THOUGHT about what should go into a program.

The program is called Quick Grid. It is scrolling grid data with a Main Grid and currently 10 Deep Dive grids. Plus some bonuses. It works from BRIS single files, DRF or Multicaps.

I don't want to intrude on Dave's bandwidth here, but if anyone wants to know more, please email me at QuickGridSoftwareatgmaildotcom.

I've also started a Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100090537234418

I remain friends with Dave and recognize both the quality of his products and his contribution to handicapping.

For anyone interested in chart handicapping, on YouTube there is a video called Handicapping Horses Chart Handicapping by Derbyologist Horse Racing. It is 10:26 long. I think it is worth the view.