Thanks, Tony.

#1 stayed closer than usual and closed the deal in R8.

Musical America didn't even have the lead at any call and faded to 4th.

I like experiments. So, in the 8th at TDN, I set up a 50% flat with the dutching based on my odds line. I liked 1A, 2, 5, 9. The 2 was a 4/5 favorite that I felt might be vulnerable.

So, the dutched wager amounts were 4 on 1A, 8 on 2, 4 on 5 and 5 on 9.

The final odds were 24/1 on the 1, 4/5 on the 2, 7/1 on the 5 and 4/1 on the 9. Any but the 2 would return a profit.

They finished 1A-9-2-5 with the 1A paying $51.20 for a return of $102.40 on the $21 selection.

My point here is that this is the way that a dutch looks when it turns out really well.

A better paying but more risky option would have been a dime super, which paid $185.96.

Okay, so the 4 is scratched in R8. That will relieve some pressure on QF75.

There is the matter of Pletcher's #5 having debuted on turf followed by two all-weather trips and now returning to turf off his three foreign races. A bit of an unknown factor.

In R8, the ML fave looks to be likely closest early to QF75, but I don't think can go on late. I see that as a positive for QF75, but he will still have to hold off the late rush from 6, 7, 3, 9, 8.

Here's my time decayed BRIS pace on those two for 2F, 4F, 6F and LT
R4:
Musical America 205 218 204 114
R8
Q F Seventy Five 190 191 201 177

So, I'd say Musical America is very likely to fade.
Q F Seventy Five has a much better chance of closing the deal. Of course, on the turf it is tougher for the speed to hold. But my pace line is the 4th line and if you don't mind it being slightly over a year old, it suggests that this one looks good in this field. My form factors all look good on this one and the BRIS Prime Power is third highest in the field. I would include him on a horizontal.

Does it violate any rules or laws?

My odds line is currently using the BRIS pace from 4F and LT from my selected pace line. The decayed pace of the last 4 races might be a good element to the odds line... I certainly use it in my handicapping.

Race 4 at CD, a classic chaos race. Formal Order got up at 9/1 off a 5/1 ML and 9/1 PL.

If you just watched R3 at BEL, it was easy to predict that heavily bet Tekila would fold like an ogi, based on the decayed LP figure.

I got the time decayed idea from how the RDSS — Lawrence

Yes, Ted told me how to do the CSR, so I applied the logic to my BRIS file. I also did it with the 2f, 4f, 6f and LT pace figures. I see Dave has the time decay EP and LP... I would think those are very useful numbers. While a high LP number is not mandatory, a poor LP figure is a very suspect horse from what I have seen.

Sounds like a very interesting project! I like that idea of a time decayed race class level.

I do a time degradation on the last 4 4f pace ratings. That's good for race shape, but I don't know how that fits into chaos.

For me, Chaos is when early speed falls apart. Horses known to be closers often win and sometimes at a big price. Most really fast final times are run fast throughout, so when early speed falls apart, a history of high speed ratings is not always required to win. I believe the entire process is predictable.

Hey Rick- Just for clarification, did you mean less than 15 speed points in the race? Thanks in advance for the clarification. — Tony Kofalt

Divide the highest QSP by the total QSP for all horses. If it is less than 15%, the premise is that chaos is possible.

It's not the whole pace picture.

I do a composite rating on the last 4 races degraded using Fibonacci for the BRIS pace ratings -- 2f, 4f, 6f and Late. That with my pressure rating, QSP and %M numbers give me a pretty good picture of pace. Then I also have regular Sartin style pace factors and my own closing points.

I am a firm believer that looking at anything just one way can give a wrong impression.

I think I see the premise for your number. The whole field is supplying more pressure than the high pressure horse can withstand. I have added that to my program to see if I find merit. Thanks.

Yes, I believe I understand now. So, your example would qualify because 7 is less than 15% of 47.

I also have my own number that I call "pressure", but I haven't found a correlation to chaos for it.

Have either of you two tried/tested Quirin Speed Point percentage? When it's less than .15 weird happening occur. — Biniak

No, I am not sure I understand. 15 percent of what?

I look at the top 3 Quirin speed figures because that is what will usually drive the pace. I also look at the Giles high Quirin count.