It all depends on your confidence level.

I once saw a horse going off at 5/1 when the HORSE should have been 1/2 at most. An announcement was made that the JOCKEY had never won a race in over 500 mounts and that was the reason for the 5/1 odds. I bet the horse with CONFIDENCE. Why? Because the horse was breaking from the outside post and all the jock had to do was stay out of trouble and the outside post would afford her that opportunity. At the top of the stretch, she had the horse on a slight lead. Twice she tried to whip the horse and both times she pulled the reins and the horse wanted to go sideways. She learned her lesson, got up on the horse's neck and the horse looked like he was shot out of a cannon and won by easy daylight. The horse was never in danger of a troubled trip.

I'd say inside information is info not typically found in 10 race PP's.

Kendrick Carmouche recently changed agents and immediately went on a winning tear.

It could be something odd, such as a horse has been winning since they put a goat in his barn.

Or, the jockey flew in for this one mount.

Or, the jock has not finished in the money since being thrown from his mount 10 days ago.

I agree with Tom. Inside information.

My opinion may not be popular, but Serling can't pick his nose. But he does sometimes offer some interesting information. And, he/s the contrarian that people tune in to hear what he's going to say.

That's a tough one. Potential chaos. I can only get Spanikopita on a deep dive. Bullet work followed by a troubled trip and the closer is possible on the possible chaos.

Definitely a good pick by Dave.

Do you mean at Parx, 10/5/22, race 5?

That's impressive!

Just keep in mind that a big part of what is getting Dave to winners is his process. He recently helped me with my process and it was a game changer. He helped me to see that I was taking a random approach, hopping aimlessly from one area to another. Once I began following a process, my ability to pick winners improved significantly.

I am sure Dave's software and his ability to use it are very significant, but also don't underestimate his ability to utilize a process.

It's like a second lease on life. I hope to make the most of it. One good thing about the hospital is that it has taught me a lot about looking out for myself. I can tell you that nobody turns the main light on in my room after midnight anymore!

My max is now 1500 feet, more than a 1/4 mile. And I'm on Lasix. Look out! Ha!

Still on schedule for release 10/3, tomorrow. Sure looking forward to getting out and being able to walk in the sunshine, eat tamales and spend more time with my wife.

The horse doesn't know what his odds are. If either looks like it has a legit shot at winning, it is a good bet. If torn between the two, betting both is an option.

In today's whale climate, you must have confidence in your odds line because the tote odds can drastically change.

I am now walking as much as 1200 feet at a time. They’re talking about releasing me on 10/3. I am very much looking forward to getting out of here.

Here's something that Andicap told me that I found useful:

I use energy to detect races that had more of a front-end skew than others by examining the 1st and 2nd calls. I promote horses who pressed the pace in races where the %E is above average in either call, especially those that remained competitive to the end. I demote closers who fail to exploit these set-ups.

I've found a number of high early energy races where the pace figures didn't point to an abnormal front end pressure but where the leaders came back strong when the pace figured to be less energy intensive.

Horses with poor speed numbers, poor pace potential, poor pace lines and poor connections just don’t win often enough to make them worthwhile win bet potential wagers, especially if you are making a single win wager.

Good topic.

I am reading Ziemba’s Exotic Betting at the Racetrack, just getting started. He points up how many heavy favorites win.

So, in my opinion, there’s usually up to 4 horses in a race with a shot. Those 4 are horses that figure. My reason for going to a longshot is pace… always pace, with the setup for speed or close.

I look to see what the horses did in their pace line race. Then, the speed and class of their recent races. Then, figure how all that fits to the form cycle.

Lasix has me in shape. I had a race with Bolt scheduled, but he found out I cheated on the lane assignments and he backed out. Gutless.

Thank you all. I knew this was going to be difficult, but it’s all going so well that I may be released tomorrow.

Of course. This is obvious. — Dave Schwartz

Well, the question did arise.

When I say, PARS I am referring to the track par - how fast the track is - as opposed to what's the par for this race? — Dave Schwartz

When I think of a par, I think in terms of a speed for a distance at a track. So, I can then look at a past performance line and evaluate how well a horse did when it ran a mile at SA as opposed to 5f at FG or 7f at SAR. Does that seem to conform to your definition and usage of pars?

My main point was that in terms of fps or mph, a mile race is almost always going to be slower than a 5f race, so that is one of the reasons we cannot use raw times.

Also, generally speaking, the longer the distance, the slower the speed. So, you have to compare to some standard for the distance. And, those standards, pars, can vary by track.

LOOK FOR WAYS TO DESCRIBE SCENARIOS WITH WORDS

Can you elaborate? I didn’t understand where this was explained.