I generally use some form of a known physical science formula but really struggling with the velocities for fractions that use the Stretch Call (in any way) since it is a distance without a time.

It's easy when you are using pace numbers because you all the variables are known: — Dave Schwartz

I don't understand. What is not known?

I also have a number I call Pressure that I equate to Quirin speed points on steroids. It suggests which horses will go to the lead. I then arrive at a mean number for that. So, here is what I have for the field:

Variance 0.611111
Std. Dev. 0.781736
Mean 1.888889 EP
Median Pressure 63
Top 3 Q 21
Giles Speed Points 3 (3+ 1C, 2 2C, 1 3C, 0 4C)
Hi Q % Tot Q 25.00


The first 3 numbers are for the EPS running style based on %M as explained earlier in this thread. These are actual numbers for the 8th at TDN today. With the mean EPS at 1.88, my anticipation was that the pace was not going to be unusual though a bit on the early side, suggesting some of the front end might collapse. The top 3 Q of 21 suggested the same. I had #9 as a pace Presser though positionally he was an S. His current class was highest in the field and pressure was 63,exactly at average. His Scott PCR was 3rd behind the coupled entry that went off at odds on, .3/1. So, the #9 did indeed stalk from 3rd and closed up the stretch. Interestingly, the uncoupled entry mate, #6, finished 2nd at 67/1, triggering an exacta of $163.40 on $1. The jock on #6 was the best in the field and the trainer of the two exacta horses was the best in the field. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but just goes to show that most races do have working puzzle pieces.

↪Dave Schwartz He does have New Pace and CSR in RDSS right? — Mark

Ted told me publicly how to compute CSR. I use the BRIS speed ratings. I also use the same methodolgy on the BRiS pace figures.for 2f, 4f, 6f, and LT.

The following is how I define the calculations. May not be "perfect Sartin".

deceleration is
( EP/f3 ) * 100

I believe EP is f1 + f2.

TEDC (which I use as VDC) is:
100 * ( f1 + f2 + f3 ) / deceleration

I think VDC is:
100 * ( AP + f3 ) / deceleration

I make no adjustments to the raw numbers for these because the adjustments would wash out.

I use Total Energy divided by deceleration. Does that tell you enough or do you need more? I don't think that is technically the Sartin way.

i just remembered. I do use VDC as one of many factors in selecting a pace line, giving limited preference to the line with the best VDC.

%Median, deceleration and VDC (velocity to deceleration) can also tell a couple of things.

1) the inability to handle a longer distance

2) a form cycle fall off of form

As I described in the chaos thread, I also take the median %M of each horse and assign a value from 1 to 6 as being E to L. I am fully cognizant that this EPS is not to be a replacement for the positional EPS running style commonly employed, both should be employed in different ways.

It is this 1 (early) to 6 (late) system that I use to determine how early or late the field is, using the average of the 1 to 6 system. I tried to arrive at values for 1 to 6 that more or less evenly split up all horses, at least that was the goal. So, when a field is over 3, it is late. Under 3 is early. When the field is late, that's when chaos might ensue. With a lot of late horses in the field, they still have to have some on the lead and those horses often shift their distribution and that's why they back up. At least, that is my thought.

In this 1 to 6 system, I also calculate the variance and standard deviation from the mean, but I have not done enough study to know how to use those values. I suspect they have significance.

Yes, the middle of the sorted list. I figure for the most part the extremes will end up being mostly irrelevant.

I don't remember exactly how I figured the range, but it is always a set value above and a set value below the median value. So, I am not depending on an exact value anyway. Just looking for horses that have been running extreme energy distributions for the current field.

My unscientific observation is that at Saratoga a horse that has been a late distribution has very little chance on the dirt.

Yes, I go through the "100" races and take the median of the %M's regardless of surface and distance. My logic is that that is the pace the horse is accustomed to running. You might disagree with the logic of using all values, but you are entitled to your opinion. I have not gone through it in any other way from what I have described above, so I am not claiming it is absolutely the best way.

Happy birthday, William!! Nice hit in R4 today!

I can copy the odds section, but the program # is an image, so if I paste into notepad it doesn't appear.

It is always available on my phone. Sometimes the availability times out on my laptop.

If I had the time, I would try to fake being a phone from my laptop... the screen would be more useful, too, because it is simpler on the phone.

Good luck, Lawrence!

I suggest that scratches be a refund, but the wager does not count toward the $100 weekly requirement. Any opposition?

We need to discuss scratches. Any thoughts?

Nobody expressed opposition, so the rule will be to make selections before the post time for the first race.

Okay, so far no opposition to posting selections before the first race. Let's give it until noon Wednesday. If nobody has indicated concerns by then, the rule will need to be changed

Thanks for the input.

I have started a thread in the Selections section for this first week. There will be a new thread each week. Please note that in that first week thread we are discussing changing to making all selections before the first race. If that is not satisfactory, we need your input.

Maybe we should call a week Tuesday through Monday so we are not required to do 5 races on that last Monday.