I think the issue is huge. Those of us who have been in horse racing for many years are frustrated by odds drops. But newbies are frustrated not just by the drops, but by not grasping why they are shooting at a moving target.

I can't speak for Tony, but as someone who has built ABC tickets, I suspect it would benefit Tony to have multiple calculators.

AB/ABC/ABC
A/ABC/C
C/AB/ABC

That sort of thing.

This site doesn't allow EXE files, so I renamed it to .CHG. Just download and change to .EXE.

I'd love to see what you've done. — Dave Schwartz

I'll send it to you, but it isn't mine. It was written by Horatio Kemeny. It references Swiftthoroughbreds.com, but I don't think that link is good. The copyright is from 1998-2006.

I have one called Exotic Wager Calculator. The executable is named EWC2.EXE. It is free. If you can't find it, I can email it to you. It does up to 20 horses for verticals up to 6 and horizontals up to 8, amounts .05, .10, .20, $1, $2, $3, $5, $10.

Before you jump all over me for that one... — Dave Schwartz

The only way I use variants is as one of many, many factors as to whether to use a line as my pace line. If the variant is too extreme, it may not be a representative line.

Take a look at it and see if there is anything that strikes you as meriting discussion. — Dave Schwartz

In the recesses of my mind is something about breezing and handily being different in different regions, east vs. west. This had to have been from at least 15 years ago and maybe much more. Have you ever heard anything like that? I don't know whether it was true back then or whether it would still be true today.

Since the tote moves so much, the theory of Dutching to work is just not likely to work as planned. — Dave Schwartz

What if the allocation was based on an odds line instead of the tote board?

And, how do you know when the odds don't support what you need to make?

If you are struggling to level up your results, look at who you hang out with. — Dave Schwartz

So right, Dave! I know I have learned far more from personal relationships than I have from any books.

I guess I wasn't very clear on dutching. My program works just fine on allocating the dutch amounts. So, I get that part.

One question I have... how much profit margin do you usually seek from your dutch? For instance, if you fund the dutch with $20, how much does that need to return for your long-term goals? I know that is a somewhat personally based question, but I would like an opinion. I am thinking that the anticipated profit would need to be at least 50%, but that is just a WAG (guess).

There is a point at which a properly distributed dutch will return a loss no matter what horse wins. For instance, if we fund $20 and dutch 4 horses at 3/1, even, 2/1, 4/1, the wagers will be 4, 8, 5 and 3. The returns would be $16, $16, $15, $15. Certainly an extremely poor wager.

From the Kentucky Derby video, I know Dave dutches quite a lot. I'd be interested to know how often the rest of you dutch.

By the way, if you want my dutching program, PM me your email address. I will send it to any of the regular participants of this group. You just enter the fund amount, number of horses and odds of each and it returns the dutch amount for each and the return for that odds/wager combination. Enter less than 2 horses to exit the program. It is DOS based, but that shouldn't particularly matter. No installation required. Just one executable file.

Thanks, Steven! Your parlay information is very helpful!

Can we take a quick look at a current or recent race using Monty Hall?

If you like that one, try this one. — Dave Schwartz

I like that one, too! I'm glad Ray is here!

Welcome Ray, a great interview by Dave with Ray on Pace makes the Race. https://pacemakestherace.com/interview-dave-schwartz-interviews-ray-wallin/ — Ken Fee

Thanks, good interview. Very interesting.

Welcome, Ray!

As Ross Perot said, "I'm all ears."

BTW, with the scratch, can't have CHAOS in a 6-horse field. — Dave Schwartz

The running of the race said chaos. 4 horses battling on the front end, the 5th place horse blew by them like they were in slowmo. The 4th quarter went faster than the 3rd.

My approach to this race would be to bet CHAOS. — Dave Schwartz

It was chaos, but with a solid horse in place to take advantage.

Pratt with Brown at the meet before today: 6 starts, 3 wins, 1 place, 2 shows, +.77 ROI

My odds line: 6,2,3
#5 is a firster with an impressive work tab for Chad Brown.
Early, I look for 2,3,7,1 to compete for the front end.
I look for the race to be won up the stretch, but with my only elimination there being #1.
I wouldn't bet this race with your money, but...
i will pick #5 if he'll lay a little off the pace and wait for the horses to come back to him.
For a horizontal I would take 3,4,5.

Troubled trips...

So far (still early):
Routes: 4.95%
Sprints: 5.74%
Turf: 6.06%

Highest percentage for a jockey:
41.2% of 17 mounts.