Good point!

Gonna be a bright sunshiney day.

Here are some ideas: — Tony Kofalt

Good comments!

What's needed is a "What LOSES at you track" mindset but qualified by 3/1 or less. Then the game's expectancy changes. — Biniak

That's true, except... it is sometimes situational. I think we have to handicap the race as well as the horses in the race.

Not a horse that WILL LOSE TODAY, but a horse that will lose money long-term. — Dave Schwartz

I agree.

For me, there are 4 kinds of odds situations:

1) A heavy favorite that is a likely winner.
2) A contentious race where the selection has to be among the 3 odds line favorites
3) A race with a vulnerable favorite, but a likely mid-range winner
4) A chaos race, where the winner could be in any odds range. True chaos races are fairly rare and ones where there is a legit long-shot with potential are even rarer. But when they come along, they pay big.

A huge portion of races fall within those 4 categories. I think we have to discern which category a race is in. There's very seldom a "best horse" that goes off as a longshot and wins... just not going to happen.

It seems to me the whales are on the "best horse" a lot. We have to find races where the "best horse" is vulnerable. It's still a parimutuel game... yes, the whales can bet a horse to 1/5, but that means there may be a 7/1 with a shot.

I guess I should have mentioned that I was a professional programmer for about 20 years, using mostly Clipper.

AllData was free and I think there is still a web site for it. Try a Google search

I will simply say that you have them severely underrated. Their software is way beyond fairly good. — Dave Schwartz

Thanks, I didn't mean to underestimate. If they weren't really good, they wouldn't be risking millions of dollars. On the other hand, it is not impossible to find plays to beat them. When you can beat them, the rewards can be great.

Or is it their computer programs are far superior to anything we might be able to get our hands on at present?

They just make huge bets, aiming to break even or make a small profit. They make their profit from rebates. Apparently their software is fairly good, but the problem is that they bet so much on the logical horses that it is difficult for everyone else to make money on the logical horses. If you don't get a rebate, you can do just as well as them and still make only a very small profit. If you're betting $10 a race, a 5% average return is not going to net much. If you bet thousands, get the 5% and get a rebate on top of that, you're doing pretty well.

Tony, I think the visual program I was thinking about was Equisim.

Raybo's AllData

what I mean is to quickly handicap a race BEFORE considering the data — William Zayonce

My view is pretty much opposite. I think most races can be solved from the data. Sometimes the data is not saying what most people think.

My knowledge is very minimal. Have you ever looked at the spreadsheet on PA? I looked at it a long time ago. Pretty impressive formatting at the time. I understand that guy passed away.

This basically tells me they know the derby was a fluke! No owner or trainer would stop there horse from possibly winning the triple crown unless the horse is hurt! — Mark

Conversely, the horse has only won a Maiden Claimer at less than 10 furlongs and has never raced on a quick turnaround. Why not set the horse up for potential success?

Good tournament players seem to be very good at high risk, high reward plays. I doubt if that mindset meshes with the typical handicapper. I think most of us are content with a grind and occasional score approach.

I am using Harbour.

I've used a few other languages, mostly various flavors of BASIC. I am also fairly adept with web programming... HTML, CSS and a bit of javascript.

Yes, I am willing to help others when I can.

I don't currently need help. Harbour uses extension libraries for Windows. I'm running into a few issues there, but that is something I need to work out.

I wrote my first handicapping program as a splits evaluation in the early 80's. I started on what I have now evolved to in the mid-90's.

Interesting.
Do you find those numbers to have significance? — Dave Schwartz

Well, I haven't nailed down anything highly significant in handicapping, but for a trainer with millions of dollars on the line, I can appreciate his decision.

Oh, Wilbur!

As Johnny Oates said, luck is when preparation and opportunity meet.