Great info, Tony!

A feature we need in The Studio. — Dave Schwartz

It sure seems like a good feature. Jockeys generally have a style, just like horses do.

Thanks, Tom.

Thanks, Dave! You always follow through.

#6 I am showing .75 back.
#5 I am showing 1.75 back.

Sorry I am being a pest, but what I have learned from you is helping me so much that I don't want to misunderstand this. In a few days I am going to post about my journey.

Okay, I'm lost. I don't understand how the two example horses earned a G for the races marked. There's something I don't understand here.

(Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.) — Dave Schwartz

I'm trying to follow along. Should that be 2 lengths? And maybe 3 in a route?

.but would seem to ignore the condition and form cycle pattern of the runner — Dustin Korth

Good point, Dustin. I think this is where the art of handicapping comes into play. I think one thing that helps is to look at recent composite speed ratings and compare those to the pace line speed rating. it's also good to note the points at which the horse was claimed. And, which race off the last layoff. Lots of stuff available to make me look foolish. lol

Rich, interesting.

A stat I look at is the riders's record by running style. — Tom

From where do you obtain that stat, Tom?

I know that I talked to a trainer at Lone Star who told me that if a jockey didn't try to go to the front end on his horses, they wouldn't be riding for him long.

I am using it from BRIS. It appears to be 365 days.

Well, let's don't leave this one yet. I use the MRCT of the jockeys! For their record on sprints or routes or turf, whatever they're riding in the race.

Hope I didn't come across as terse. Just getting back to this.

I think you have to give prime consideration to the top 3 UOL horses. That should get a lot of winners. Then find your most successful contender process. Unless you feel strongly about one of your other contenders, you know that one of the three UOL low odds horses that is on your contenders list will win a lot of races. Then you have to look at which of these contenders will be aided by the pace setup. My contenders list needs to include both early and late horses. Will the race run early, late or chaos (late)? That's what I am doing.

Running style means so much in building a model. — Rich Val

Thanks, Rich. Do you use the published running style (E,E/P,P, etc.)? Do you model any similar information? I know some people model the %M off of their pace line.

Thanks, Tony. I appreciate your response.

By the way, I was not anticipating any right or wrong answers. Just curious as to the thought processes to get to the pros or cons of bias.

I guess the question is after you have correctly predicted the odds on the top 3 or 4 horses in a race, and knowing the top two odds horses win the lions share of races, what do you do with this? — Gregory Byrnes

Wait.

Tom, thanks for sharing.

When considering speed bias, do you only look at individual horses? Or do you in any way look at the field as a whole?

And, do you take into consideration track circumference and/or the run-up to the (first or only) turn?

What about turf racing? Many people point to a bias against the outside horses. Is that because they are running on grass? Or is it because turf courses have tighter turns? And, do you adjust for odd configurations, such as the downhill races at Santa Anita? What about the "half turns" and chutes configurations?

As with anything, you might want to take some of Benter's claims with a grain of salt.

But, we must be aware that there are whales. They do homework. On computers. The days of the four dots on a program method you learned in 1980 are probably just a fantasy world today. You have to ferret out value differently from the whales unless you have the resources to cover your bases 90 ways from Sunday.

Do whales drive down prices? Certainly! But are there good overlays every day? Yes, there are. This is one of the reasons I look forward to diving into Dave's Percentages and Probabilities. I anticipate that there's a lot of good info in there. Stuff that leads you to the fact that finding perfect horses is a path to disaster. But, which warts can you live with and which ones are disaster? That's what I am seeking.