Delta Downs is not listed. They run a 2 turn mile from a straight chute.

Saratoga dirt shows 2 turns, but I believe they are about to return to a chute for a 1 1/2 turn mile.

If a ship had 26 sheep and 10 goats onboard, how old is the ship's captain?

Good thoughts, Dave.

Note that I suggested beginning with a premise and then testing that premise. That avoids, in part, the backfitting issue. Of course, as you suggested, you still have to forward test because it can still regress.

20 years ago or so I was doing spot plays successfully. It takes a lot of research and some thinking outside the box. The payout is the primary consideration. ALWAYS track the payout as the prime consideration. You must find long-term profit.

I was working the tedious way. Take a basic premise. Does it have any hope at all? If so, try tightening it up until it was showing a profit. Then, does it continue to show a profit or does it regress to the mean? Most will regress. Divide into "sessions"... months or whatever. Does the spotplay show a profit in several consecutive sessions? Stay on top of it all the time.

I usually had about 20 spotplays under development. I'd use maybe 5 or 6.

I would stay away from maidens at first.

Some possible fertile ground you might try:

1) form cycles

2) pace extremes

3) claims... if you TRULY understand claiming

4) improvement

5) incorporate class

Don't hesitate to incorporate computations that are available "out there", such as Scott's PCR.

I had a friend who would always tell me... it's easy to be successful in life. All you have to do is be willing to work half a day. You can work the first 12 hours or the last 12 hours, really doesn't make much difference.

In horse racing, most people underestimate the power of skillful study and record keeping. When something works, stick with it until it doesn't. When something doesn't work, refine it until it does. Sometimes it takes a lot of work.

Yes, that's the one. There were usually about 50 to 60 players. I finished 1st once and 8th once. I don't know about the other years... better to forget, I guess. The first day I played I won enough to win the season. Then I hit another big one and I was one race off of hitting one bigger than both of those combined. The year I finished 8th, one day I hit a $200 cold P4... didn't pay much, but 200 times was pretty good. With real money, most of us would have been big losers. lol

Thanks for your input, Tony.

Sounds like the old Inner Dirt days. I used to play a P4 contest and it seemed it was always smart to include the horse breaking from the 1 hole.

Tony, I haven't been handicapping AQU, but I was wondering... are you maintaining any profiles? Are the winners contra to your profile data?

I would contend that they are directly related. — Dave Schwartz

I would contend that that is because there are near 40% winning favorites. The problem is that if you are using a line as a selection, you won't get many longshots.

An odds line is an odds predictor, not a performance forecast.

if you want to predict performance, maintain records on the effectiveness of your factors. I am currently profiling 19 factors by route/sprint and surface and track.

It gets deeper. In their data files, they have pace at 2 4 6 8 10 furlongs and late and then there's speed. Seems to me that the individual pace figures should give some correlation to the speed figure. But I don't see that it does. I don't feel like I have harmed myself comparing, say, the 4f pace figures among horses. But I don't see it lining up with the speed figure. Thanks for posing this question. Maybe someone has more insight.

Thanks

Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process?

Lewis: 1 2 4 3

Chalk. — RanchWest

1-3-4

Gotta wonder when a firster or 2TS runs in a stakes race. Could it be a Baffert exacta?

Lewis: 1 2 4 3

Chalk.

SFT

Nice sweep in the Holy Bull RanchWest! — Conley

Thanks, Conley!