I'm interested.

The racing commission could not levy a max penalty for a misdemeanor. So, they kept issuing lighter penalties until it became a felony, then issued a more severe penalty.

LOL
That's funny. — Dave Schwartz

You think that's funny... when he finally told the truth, that meant he had committed perjury, which is a felony.

I remember that! — Dave Schwartz

The jockey was Sylvester Carmouche, Jr., father of Kendrick Carmouche and Sylvester Carmouche III, who are both jockeys.

The fog incident was in a race with such a low purse that the jockey could not be charged with a felony.

My early handicapping was at Delta Downs. First, I want to point out that I have not been to that track in many years and I have no idea whether it is different or the same. But back then, cheating was there. I can think of at least 6 races that I am rather certain were fixed and therefore I can speculate that there were many others as I was generally not an every day attendee.

The most infamous incident at Delta was the "fog jockey" incident. On a very foggy night, one jockey parked his horse where the chute met the main track and waited for the other horses to come around to complete the mile run. When he heard the hoofbeats, he got his horse to take off. In this dreadfully conditioned race, the horse not only won by double digit lengths, but set a track record. The rest is a long story, but he did much later admit what had happened.

When I was carefully monitoring trainer pattens about 20 years ago, I became convinced that there were improprieties of at least a few trainers.

Some of the other stories I am familiar with are so bizarre that I would likely be labeled a liar if I told them. Admittedly, they sound like mighty odd stuff. I will just say that there are a lot of ways to cheat.

Today, I am not really in a position to know very much. I will say that in reviewing races, I find that most are very explainable, either based on the quality of the winner or on the way the pace panned out. But I wouldn't be surprised if cheating exists.

Good point on short-term trends. Sometimes it fails because it just regresses to the mean. But sometimes we can accidentally stumble on something important. Maybe the trainer has a better staff. Or he put a goat in his barn. Or the better performance through chemistry kicked in. Or he got better horses from better clients. Or he discovered better feed. We don't really care why he's winning, only that he is.

Another important aspect about a trainer is recognizing when a trainer is dropping a horse to try to unload a hopeless horse or trying to get a win. How much does the trainer drop a horse and still win? A lot of top trainers have new horses coming in that they need room to have.

Yes, Dave, there are many opportunities.

Another set of stats that might be ripe is workouts. Is there a difference between when the horses win and lose? Does the trainer work the horses long or short? Any difference for distances or surfaces? Fast or slow? Frequency? Does the typical layoff after a race disclose anything? Does the trainer have access to a private training facility?

Generally, I find that the best trainers just lead me to the already known to be best horses and they usually carry a low morning line. And, most of the stuff from the major data sources fuels a lot of wagers. Of course, there are exceptions.

If you can track data that is not in the hands of the public, it can be powerful. For instance, which trainers win the most at the beginning of a season and which win the most at the end of the season? That sort of thing.

Two issues I see.

One, the stretch runs will differ. For instance, Delta has a two turn mile on a 6f track, with a long chute leading into a straight portion of the track, running the stretch section twice. The stretch is very short.

Two, what triggers some horses to finish well is changing leads off the turn. So, I don't see the number of turns to be very significant, but actual research could prove me wrong. I think there may be more to be learned from the length of the stretch.

Delta Downs is not listed. They run a 2 turn mile from a straight chute.

Saratoga dirt shows 2 turns, but I believe they are about to return to a chute for a 1 1/2 turn mile.

If a ship had 26 sheep and 10 goats onboard, how old is the ship's captain?

Good thoughts, Dave.

Note that I suggested beginning with a premise and then testing that premise. That avoids, in part, the backfitting issue. Of course, as you suggested, you still have to forward test because it can still regress.

20 years ago or so I was doing spot plays successfully. It takes a lot of research and some thinking outside the box. The payout is the primary consideration. ALWAYS track the payout as the prime consideration. You must find long-term profit.

I was working the tedious way. Take a basic premise. Does it have any hope at all? If so, try tightening it up until it was showing a profit. Then, does it continue to show a profit or does it regress to the mean? Most will regress. Divide into "sessions"... months or whatever. Does the spotplay show a profit in several consecutive sessions? Stay on top of it all the time.

I usually had about 20 spotplays under development. I'd use maybe 5 or 6.

I would stay away from maidens at first.

Some possible fertile ground you might try:

1) form cycles

2) pace extremes

3) claims... if you TRULY understand claiming

4) improvement

5) incorporate class

Don't hesitate to incorporate computations that are available "out there", such as Scott's PCR.

I had a friend who would always tell me... it's easy to be successful in life. All you have to do is be willing to work half a day. You can work the first 12 hours or the last 12 hours, really doesn't make much difference.

In horse racing, most people underestimate the power of skillful study and record keeping. When something works, stick with it until it doesn't. When something doesn't work, refine it until it does. Sometimes it takes a lot of work.

Yes, that's the one. There were usually about 50 to 60 players. I finished 1st once and 8th once. I don't know about the other years... better to forget, I guess. The first day I played I won enough to win the season. Then I hit another big one and I was one race off of hitting one bigger than both of those combined. The year I finished 8th, one day I hit a $200 cold P4... didn't pay much, but 200 times was pretty good. With real money, most of us would have been big losers. lol

Thanks for your input, Tony.

Sounds like the old Inner Dirt days. I used to play a P4 contest and it seemed it was always smart to include the horse breaking from the 1 hole.