Comments

  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Tony, I agree on time decay. Many of today's trainers have solid intent first off a long layoff, as evidenced by their high win percentages. And, I, too, am willing to go well back into the running lines to find a race that might correspond to today's race. For instance, turf route lines tell me little about what will happen in today's dirt sprint. In fact, I've come to consider selecting a "pace line" as one of the most important aspects of handicapping. And that certainly is contrary to time decay.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Did you read my book from 2012, Percentages & Probabilities?

    In that book, I did a whole chapter on building STRENGTH RATINGS. They are far better than par times.
    Dave Schwartz

    Could you tell me which specific chapter you are referencing? I did purchase the book. I can't say that I ever dove into it full bore.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Also in all of this we have to consider the races that are a mixed bag. A state-bred filly 10,000 claimer for non-winners of a race in a year is not the same as an open 10,000 claimer.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    IOW, not all $16,000 claiming races are populated with $16,000 horses.Dave Schwartz

    That's true. But horses dropping to their lowest claiming price and horses first time in for a tag have increased chances of winning, as a group. Of course, extreme claiming price drops can raise suspicion. So, I do think claiming prices are generally one means of measuring class.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    I can't recite the numbers, but studies I have seen suggest that 3 yo's progress through their 3 yo campaign and continue to progress, on average, into their 4 yo and somewhat into their 5 yo years. So, my assertion, or at least my hypothesis, is that a 3 yo who beats older horses has completed an accomplishment that suggests class.

    Another class indicator that comes to my mind is stretch duel wins... the horses that want it more.

    My goal in this thread has not been to establish the class level of a race, but rather to establish the class level of a horse.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Good point, Dave. There's also state-bred vs non-state-bred, distaffers against males, changes in age restrictions, etc. Remember how easily Easy Goer won against 3 yo after beating older two weeks prior?
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Total Energy, Scott's PCR, Races where a speed rating was earned higher than today's par, races where the par was higher than today's par, races above BRIS CR or RR, Quirin "good races" at above today's par, wins at above today's par, APV, EPS, consecutive wins, claiming prices, Talbot box. There's a lot of ways to measure class.
  • Clocker Reports
    My all-time two largest hits were based entirely on physicality. In one of them, only one horse was not a firster.