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Comments

  • Late Odds Changes
    I wonder what their tax return looks like.
  • Late Odds Changes
    Interesting!
  • Late Odds Changes
    I wonder if these "whales'" have been investigated for money laundering. It seems an odd choice of investment for a legitimate company, particularly if its a publicly traded one.
  • Late Odds Changes
    Dave Schwartz
    They've been playing since around 2005, but their betting approaches all changed about 2014/15
    .
    That would explain why I didn't notice them. My last daily play was January of 2011...I restarted as a casual player September of 2019 . Just this year decided to get back in with both feet.
  • Finding out what wins
    Steven.

    • William, your angles would involve much more programming and work than I want to take on right now.
      Thanks for your help so far Steven! I understand that it's a large and cumbersome project.
  • Finding out what wins
    ↪Dave Schwartz

    Be aware that this will be a PRODUCT - as opposed to something free.
    5mReplyOptions1
    .Of course! Wouldn't expect you to do all the heavy lifting without compensation! Im certain that it'll be worth the investment.
  • Late Odds Changes
    Dave Schwartz

    • However, the winners' GATE ODDS actually GO DOWN 74% of the time!!!

      Thanks for this interesting stat Dave! Im not so sure that the "Whales" were in action when I last played daily a decade ago.Since 2019 I've only played sporadically and selectively.Perhaps that's why I didn't recognize the pattern .
  • Late Odds Changes
    Dave Schwartz
    I've adopted the practice of betting into PROJECTED ODDS.

    This works so well that I only use the tote board as a last minute check for HIGH ODDS horses that SHOULD BE LOW ODDS.
    I'm glad we share this view! Can't count the number of times that none of my contenders was in my acceptable odds range until 1 minute to post.! Some very nice scores were had
  • Late Odds Changes
    Tony Kofalt
    know this is a hot button issue for so many people. Not so much for me. I do understand the frustration of not getting the payout you expected due to late bets but you are correct that odds on other horses go up. Improvements in technology may display the odds changes sooner but won't change the outcome.
    [/quote
    I agree! This ranks up there with "take and breakage". It's annoying , but beyond our control. We can play with it or stop playing. I won't let it deter me from playing, and enjoying said play.
  • Finding out what wins
    Interesting approach to spot plays.
    I have a project on my agenda for the spring which is called Subset Handicapping.

    It begins with a subset of horses and asks the question "What makes ________ horses win?"
    Dave Schwartz
    These are precisely the sorts of insights and stats that I'd like to see . While a "naked" angle might not be productive in isolation but shows a 20% or better win% , results might improve with the addition of "complementary" factors.
  • Late Odds Changes
    Someone made a post on the PaceAdvantage board about last minute odds changes.
    Dave Schwartz
    While I'm with everyone one dislikes late odds drops , I'm also pleased when my 4/1 selection increases to 9/1 or when I've bet what I thought would be no worse than second favorite at 3/1 and get 9/2 . It goes both ways . I take the position that I can't control the odds so just accept what I get or pass.
  • Finding out what wins
    Two examples of simple "angles" that I like are these; "1 : the only entrant to win its last race ( combined with a few "complemenary " factors) ."2 : the only entrant to finish 2nd or "good" race ( again with qualifications).
  • Finding out what wins
    Essentially, I'm looking to test factors that apply to 1 and only 1 entrant . For example; the only 1 to reach the 5pt threshold in QES pts, or perhaps being the only 1 to have 2 wins in last 10 starts .The list is long. My idea is to find which "unique" attributes can complement each other to boost a 20% hit rate to 30+%
  • Finding out what wins
    Steven.
    This is an interesting and eye opening study. Just a bit disappointed with the results.Thought there would be an edge there. Thank-you!
    Just wondering...does your software allow for isolating occasions where just one entry has a certain attribute?
  • early speed favoring tracks and surfaces?
    on't have numbers but observation suggests that the tracks measuring less than 1 mile generally favor speed slightly more than the longer tracks. Notable exceptions would be the Aqueduct inner course and Emerald Downs( probably the fastest and most speed favoring 1 mile track on the continent).
    It appears that I've been out of the loop too long! Didn't know that the inner at Aqueduct had been replaced in 2017.
  • early speed favoring tracks and surfaces?
    Jim Michalak
    1
    Dave: track bias, preferably early is what I was looking for. Thanks
    I don't have numbers but observation suggests that the tracks measuring less than 1 mile generally favor speed slightly more than the longer tracks. Notable exceptions would be the Aqueduct inner course and Emerald Downs( probably the fastest and most speed favoring 1 mile track on the continent).
  • Finding out what wins
    Steven.
    Thank-you for your kind efforts!
    But I'm unable to open your attachment on my device ( PDF only). Can you suggest an app that will work for me?
  • Finding out what wins
    I think this should cover it.
    Attachment
    GPX2021_DirtSprint(11K)
    Steven
  • Hooked on racing
    I came in later but was he not the greatest horse ever?
    He was! I might have made him "Horse of the Century" if we had been treated to seeing him in action at 4 and 5 , instead of losing him to the breeding shed.
  • Finding out what wins
    Steven, you need not limit it to 90 days. Just dont go back beyond a 90 day layoff
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