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  • Fair win odds theory
    Seems a paradox though, no? If I bet both, I'm guaranteed one loss and have effectively cut my paying odds to 3/1 and 7/1. So now I have two underlays instead of one overlay. — Dustin Korth

    Who you bet does not change who is or isn't an overlay.
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    I probably missed something up there, but that sums it up well! I hope this helps Dave — Conley

    It does help.
    Thank you.


    If I was going to recommend ideas for a handicapping show I would use Talking Horses to build my foundation. — Tony Kofalt

    Thank you for that!

    Or, the jockey had his head surgically removed from his butt on Monday! :) — Tom

    LOL - Do they still call them "Pinheads?"
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    ↪William Zayonce
    Thank you
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    He does ,however, sometimes offer interesting insights that players might have overlooked. — William Zayonce

    Can you give me an example of interesting insights?
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    ↪Tom
    ↪RanchWest


    Could you explain what you mean by "Inside Information?"

    So, what you guys are calling "inside information" - could that be SPECIAL information instead?

    When I think of inside info, I think of stuff like "I heard the trainer say that ______," or "The jockey on the favorite is sleeping with the 2nd choice's trainer."
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    I can only get the winner I get 7 picks. :)
    I saw nothing positive. ???     — Tom

    Exactly.
    Yet, it was amazingly obvious to Ken.
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    Just keep in mind that a big part of what is getting Dave to winners is his process. He recently helped me with my process and it was a game changer. He helped me to see that I was taking a random approach, hopping aimlessly from one area to another. Once I began following a process, my ability to pick winners improved significantly.[/quote]

    Thrilled to hear that this has worked out so well for you.     — RanchWest
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    "Dude, do you work out?"

    Seriously, kudos to you for the follow thru.
    Not everyone does.
  • Fair win odds theory
    In today's whale climate, you must have confidence in your odds line because the tote odds can drastically change. — RanchWest

    Should be WILL CHANGE.
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    Awesome!
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    It means there is no charge for the upgrade.

    You still need to purchase downloads.
  • Pace pressure nuances
    Any trhought? — Tom

    Lots of them - but not quite ready to go public yet.

    I'm in the final stages of a very different way to look at pace.

    Multiple models - and a way to see which model to use in each race.

    Running style is huge - because it predicts how RELIABLE the pace scenario really is.

    A strong hint:
    You have a model that points to an early horse winning, yet there are no early horses in the race. Now what?
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    Lasix has me in shape. I had a race with Bolt scheduled, but he found out I cheated on the lane assignments and he backed out. Gutless. — RanchWest

    Well, I see that your terrible sense of humor is still in place. LOL
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    ↪RanchWest


    That's wonderful!

    When will you be ready to race again?

    Will you need a workout or two first or is it straight back to the track?
  • BRIS FYI
    I'll see what I can find from HDW.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Ah, that dumbass Biniak. He's the dullest tool in the shed. — Biniak

    Yes, we took a secret poll and that's what we all agreed. LOL
    (Couldn't find a roll eyes emoji in there.)
  • Concepts & POV - Part 3
    I'm going to try to explain using simple statements without a lot of explanation.
    _______________________
    When you handicap, your handicapping is based upon a strategy.

    The typical strategy of old was:
    • Pick Contenders
    • Make a line - which is really "make probabilities."
    • Bet the overlays.
    _______________________
    • This doesn't work any more because the odds change drastically after we've made our bets.
    • To make matters worse, this is what the whales do, so if we do this, we're doomed.
    _______________________
    I believe the answer is to see different scenarios.
    Bye "scenario" I mean a situation.
    The following are examples of scenarios.
    • One horse in the 1st Tier.
    • Two horses in the 1st tier.
    • Three plus horses in the 1st tier.
    "1st Tier for what?" you ask?
    • Odds
    • Early Speed
    • Contenders
    _______________________
    Let's turn those into questions.
    • "How many horses are likely to battle for the lead at the 1st call?"
    • "How many horses are likely to be well-bet?"
    • "How many horses are really contenders?"
    _______________________
    So, what I am saying is that those 3 questions, each with 3 possible answers produce 9 different scenarios. (i.e. branches)
    Each branch MAY demand a different approach to be successful.
    ___________________________________________________
    LESSON 6: SUCCESSFUL PLAYERS NEED TO HAVE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
    ___________________________________________________
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Ah, Biniak's "Why not use raw times?"
    Got it.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Of course. This is obvious.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Also, generally speaking, the longer the distance, the slower the speed. So, you have to compare to some standard for the distance. And, those standards, pars, can vary by track. — RanchWest

    When I say, PARS I am referring to the track par - how fast the track is - as opposed to what's the par for this race?
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