Comments
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The 2025 HorseStreet Par Times are now available in our new store!All pre-orders of the 2025 HorseStreet Pars (both print and electronic) have been sent or shipped.
Note: If you purchased the pars after January 1st and ordered 2024, we have sent you the 2025 version for free. (Fair is fair, right?)
If you purchased earlier than Jan, 2025 and I promised you the 2025 version as well, please send me the "Promise Email" as a reminder to make sure they get sent. -
Handicapping with laptop using pars SRI etc.No I meant do you split it by meet, or the calendar year — Chuck
Ah...
I split it by whatever makes the planet line up.
For example, some tracks run so few turf races that I have to build a THREE-YEAR PAR!
If the class levels are looking good, then I can make a par using almost everything. That is, Maidens, Allowance, Claiming - only fast tracks - and even mix males and females because they should be adjusted properly.
The software is very sophisticated - not pretty but it helps with the grunt work. -
Handicapping with laptop using pars SRI etc.It's done whenever I need to do it.
It's 70% art and 30% science.
Some tracks take 10 minutes and some take an hour. -
86-1 or the 50-1 on The DeterminatorThe AQU09 race on Sunday was EXACTLY the same situation.
1. The race is a chaos 5.
Chaos 5s are best played without handicapping.
2. Fire the Neal and sort.
That puts the winner as the 2nd best GOOD BET in the race - an automatic bet.
In this example, I went down 5 horses - the same as before - using what the system recommeded.
It is ALWAYS the need to handicap the winner that takes us off the big payoffs, DESPITE THE INSTRUCTIONS AGAINST IT.
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86-1 or the 50-1 on The DeterminatorFG Race10
1. The race is a chaos 5.
Chaos 5s are best played without handicapping.
2. Fire the Neal and sort.
That puts the winner as the 2nd best GOOD BET in the race - an automatic bet.
In this example, I went down 6 horses - one horse beyond the "GOOD BETS."
Special Note: What prevents us from hitting races like this one is the insistence on handicapping the winner instead of simply throwing the appropriate number of longshots up as bets.
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Where the heck is Dave?Pars are done.
Going to the printer in about an hour.
Next are the exports and tomorrow DET & HSH par upgrades. -
86-1 or the 50-1 on The DeterminatorIs that the $100 winner that the guys in the Saturday group were talking about?
If so, I think that was a big-time chaos race.
Horses like that are rarely handicappable - but we do catch them once in a while.
Ping
@ponyplayer,@Neal Freedman,@Tony Kofalt,@Dave R,@Jim Pommier,@Gillycapper,@PickMaster -
Race Day Pre-betting ApproachesI'd like to suggest that instead of trying to figure out all of them, you figure out the most common one first.
By far that would be L1s which seem to comprise about 70% of all races.
L2s are next with about 20%.
L0s have about 8%.
When you look at D1s - remember they are a subset of L1s.
D2s are a subset of L2s.
I don't have numbers for the D's.
Definitions:
L1s are races with only 1 horse under 2/1 (using AI Line).
L2s are races with 2 horses under 2/1 (using AI Line).
L3s are races with 3 horses under 2/1 (using AI Line).
Note: These are very rare as they all have to be between 1.90 and 1.99 to 1.
Maybe 1%?
(Brian is working on some new cutting edge stuff that relates to the competitive level of the race using the B-W-Sq.)
Ping @ponyplayer -
Time For A New ComputerCall me and I can turn you on to my tech guys.
They've delivered to a lot of my users. -
DET Tips & Tricks Class Sat, March 15, 9:30am pacificNo, there is no video.
Today I showed you how to use some of the amazingly simple-but-powerful components in DET.
Each of those components can be used for HIT RATE (low side) or VALUE, simply by reversing the sort.
Yes, it really is that simple.
And, no two players will play the same way.
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What were the takeaways?
1. You need both hit rate and value.
Depending upon what your goals are, you either:
A. 2-PARTS HIT RATE...
... and 1-part value
or
B. 2-PARTS VALUE...
... and 1-part Hit rate.
2. "Hit Rate" is achieved by anything that pushes winners towards the top.
Obviously, strong objects/factors/angles, etc. work better than weak ones.
3. "Value" is achieved by anything that pushes prices up.
4. Hit rate without a value component is destined to fail.
You'll cash a lot of tickets and lose.
5. Value (i.e. price) without a hit rate component is destined to fail.
You'll experience some great days - especially when you can catch 2 or more big payoffs.
In between those big wins, you will receive horrible beatings at the hands of the LHs. (Low-odds horses)
6. The "SECRET" is to have a balance...
...between the two, that serves your desired style of play. -
Making lots of new discoveries!Dave, on the L1 races- are you playing every one of these, and either betting with or against the L1? Or are you only playing those L1 races that point you to a BALO? — Jeff Capper
Yes, but not 5-horse fields. -
Making lots of new discoveries!One of my biggest adjustments is in strategy when I am in a situation where the risk of losing a session is greatest.
Specifically, when I am firing up (ie large bet) and am close to losing the session if I lose the bet.
More specifically, I add a small hedge with the L horse, so that if he wins I am still alive.
That has saved me from 4 recent losses, 2 of which ultimately became wins.
The lost session I posted prolonged a couple of times.
BTW, on average the sessions now typically take an average of 21 bets. That is a significant increase from the 15 it used to take.
Easy sessions are like 3-5 races - when I just slam them with a couple of big hits right up front. -
Making lots of new discoveries!It means that I win 74% of my sessions with an average return of 7/5.
The actual average payoff is about 6/5.
But, because the losses are almost always less than $300, the actual average risk is less than $300 per session, resulting in a net gain in return.
IOW, even though I begin with $300, on average the average loss is about 20% less.
As an example, I recently lost a session where I had already "scraped" $236. In addition, when I lost the last bet, I was at a down turn leaving me with $29. Since that was not enough to make another bet, that $29 was added to the "scraped" amount.
In other words, my net loss for the session was only $35.
Below are the actual bets.
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Sess# Race BET RETURN RESULT GAME SCRAPE SESSION 201 7/26/24 GP 01 30 39.00 9 +9 LRL02 201 7/26/24 LRL02 30 33.00 3 +12 SAR01 201 7/26/24 SAR01 30 62.00 32 +44 44 +44 ___________________________________________________________________________ GP 02 202 7/26/24 GP 02 30 20.00 -10 -10 WO 02 202 7/26/24 WO 02 40 29.00 -11 -21 SAR02 202 7/26/24 SAR02 52 67.00 15 -6 LRL04 202 7/26/24 LRL04 36 103.00 67 +61 61 +105 ___________________________________________________________________________ MTH01 203 7/26/24 MTH01 30 54.00 24 +24 LRL05 203 7/26/24 LRL05 30 -30 -6 WO 04 203 7/26/24 WO 04 30 -30 -36 LRL06 203 7/26/24 LRL06 29 -29 -65 MTH03 203 7/26/24 MTH03 30 41.00 11 -54 GP 05 203 7/26/24 GP 05 71 112.00 41 -13 WO 05 203 7/26/24 WO 05 42 35.00 -7 -20 MTH04 203 7/26/24 MTH04 50 44.00 -6 -26 BTP07 203 7/26/24 BTP07 56 52.00 -4 -30 GP 06 203 7/26/24 GP 06 60 54.00 -6 -36 MTH05 203 7/26/24 MTH05 66 -66 -102 SAR06 203 7/26/24 SAR06 32 30.00 -2 -104 ========= 203 8/07/24 BTP01 60 33.00 -27 -131 203 8/07/24 TDN01 63 50.00 -13 -144 203 8/07/24 DEL02 80 119.00 39 -105 203 8/07/24 TDN02 135 222.00 87 -18 203 8/07/24 TDN03 47 129.00 82 +64 64 +169 ___________________________________________________________________________ 204 8/07/24 DEL04 30 53.00 23 204 8/07/24 BTP04 30 -30 -7 204 8/07/24 SAR03 30 -30 -37 204 8/07/24 BTP05 30 134.00 104 +67 67 +236 ___________________________________________________________________________ 205 8/07/24 SAR04 30 -30 -30 205 8/07/24 TDN06 30 -30 -60 205 8/07/24 FL 06 30 -30 -90 205 8/07/24 DEL07 30 -30 -120 205 8/07/24 BTP07 30 102.00 72 -48 205 8/07/24 SAR06 78 -78 -126 205 8/07/24 BTP08 39 49.00 10 -116 ========== 205 8/08/24 IND01 79 123.00 44 -72 205 8/08/24 DEL05 102 -102 -174 205 8/08/24 SAR04 51 35.00 -16 -190 205 8/08/24 BTP06 51 33.00 -18 -208 205 8/08/24 IND03 63 -63 -271 NET -35 ___________________________________________________________________________
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A Worthwhile Post From 2006.
First, Rook was brilliant.
But the backstory is incomplete.
Let me present it by the numbers.
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1. Rook did not handicap WITHIN HSH.
He handicapped using a CSV export.
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2. In HSH v2, the composites were ALL based upon RANKS.
That is, the composite ratings themselves were ACTUALLY COMPUTED after the raw version of the the numbers were turned into ranks.
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3. This created a problem for Rook.
The problem was that every time a horse scratched, every horse that was below the scratched horse in any factor used in a composite CHANGED forcing a re-export of the data for the race.
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4. Because Rook's software did not import just a single race, he had to reimport the entire card!
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5. During HSH v2's time, Rook lobbied very hard for that to change.
I resisted, but he ultimately unionized the HSH forum until he had everyone screaming for Rook to get his way.
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6. Ironically, the change was a MASSIVE IMPROVEMENT.
Seriously, never had any single upgrade worth so much. LOL
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7. But his results weakened.
We eventually figured out why.
It turned out that APV had been SORTING UPSIDE DOWN for years!
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8. Rook said that I broke his results.
He wanted me to put the bug back.
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9. I explained that coding & data integrity just would not allow that.
Besides, it was his idea. LOL
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10. Seems reversing APV was getting him some whopper Trifectas & Supers.
I offered to build him another version that sorted in reverse but he said that it had to have the same number or it messed up all his system.
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11. Again he tried to unionize...
... but the ridiculousness of the request - to ignore data integrity - was just not well-received.
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12. Rook started other threads on PA, all in the same vein.
Now, Rook was a fair man, and always started the thread by saying how well he was doing with HSH, and sharing his NET WIN for the previous year.
(if you do some other advanced searches on PA, I am sure you can find them.)
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13. As an aside, every time he made an angry post bashing HSH...
... I sold about 15-20 copies of HSHs that month.
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14. When he said that he'd made over...
... $400,000 in each of the previous 2 years (as I recall), that number about doubled.
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15. Idiot that I was... (you guys will like this one)
... after one particularly ugly post, I THANKED HIM for making my cash register ring.
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16. He never made another post.
Yes, I was THAT stupid.
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EPILOGUE
Years later, we spoke again.
As I recall, he had banked enough and was retired.
It was also a time when the whales were really starting to make the game really difficult.
TO GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE...
...as I said earlier, Rook was a brilliant man who did an amazing job of leveraging my work into a REAL BUSINESS.
Under the hood there are some very strong mathematical concepts that he gave me. They did not go into HSH publicly until he was done playing. -
Report update AP+PS+LR
You really need to come in from the cold and catch up with the times.
@PickMaster or Brian the @ponyplayer can bring you up to speed in like an hour.
Dave Schwartz
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