This is an excellent strategy.

Well done, @Neal Freedman & @ponyplayer!

Selections are for BEFORE the race picks.
No, this is great!

For instance, I have noticed that if a horse may have a rank of 2 and a margin of 2 on only 1 of the pace lines it is most likely a marginal BALO at best. If it doesn't rank at all on several lines, it is a strong BALO. I am beginning to think that we need a tool to calibrate the AI so that we may make it stronger or at least make our elimination processes stronger. — Dave R

Great idea.
I will add this to the tracking process.

I like the idea of BALO1 & BALO2, based upon what Mags they were eliminated on.

I find that if a BALO is present, it tends to be a more chaotic race vs. a less chaotic race. Larger fields, more chaotic conditions, tepid favorites in general, etc. In some ways, it is also useful as a race selection filter. — Dennis

YES!
That was one of the points I originally made!

Recall the talk that begins with... "You have a horse who is 3/5. He got that way because he really is the best horse in the race. (when you look at his factors.)"

"If the handicapping works, this horse is the obvious winner."

"Therefore, one could say that for you to cash a ticket on another horse, THE HANDICAPPING MUST FAIL!"

That's the very definition of chaos!

I was just thinking... since all favs win at ~39%, and these BALOs are (likely) to be lower odds than the average favorite, that would put the IV probably around 0.65 or so.

Excellent work, @Dennis!

:100: :clap: :clap:

Do these BALO's win at about the same rate as their projected AI odds? — Slim

Since @Dennis did the study, he can provide a better answer. But as I recall, the net loss was around 25% - a far cry from the normal loss.

But I think you were asking a different question.
The simple answer is NO, they don't.

The goal of the AI LINE/BALO process is not to predict either a hit rate or the odds. It is to predict how the horses SHOULD BE BET based upon past history.
_______________
In my spare time, I'm working on the reverse of this, BTW. That is, the relationship between AI LINE and final odds, with the idea of using a pseudo GATE ODDS figure.

The concept would be to create FAKE GATE ODDS - something like half way between AI Line and final odds. Thus, a horse that was (say) 32/1 on the AI Line but was bet down to (say) 25% the FAKE GATE ODDS (i.e. 8/1) would be live.

Not suggesting that you'd actually GET 8/1 - more likely to get 3/1 or less - but such a horse has no business being 8/1, let alone 3/1. Such horses MAY turn out to be hot plays.

@Jim Parker
Since you asked so nicely <g>...

There is a new HSD (HorseStreet Data) importer version available in everyone's DropBox.

HSD v1.0017.
It supports batch processing.

Maybe two months

So, when get I get AI Engine Declines to handicap this race. What I have found is that no matter how many scratches there is, you still get that message when it pulls up after you hit the recalc button. Am I doing something wrong or that just how it is? — Dave R

However, in the first full release, it WILL handicap but will produce a warning.

Maybe you'd like to see the actual confidence level it has in the race data?

If it refuses it is not going to handicap it.

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Fixed the verbiage in the next release.

That's exactly correct.
Although the word should be "report" instead of selector.

You MUST load a single report.

dave what is the exact definition of a dominant odds horse? — Jim Michalak

A horse projected to be below 1.22 to 1.

(It's actually in the Chaos 1 explanation.)

the whitney was chaos 1 — Jim Michalak

Was the Fav a Dominant Odds horse?

I am assuming so.

i was going to add this to pony's invaluable list of how to use the new tote button but the thread was closed. after you find the track and race you are playing select "pools." my browser was defaulting to "program." — Jim Michalak

It defaults to what you SAVED or what you visited last.

Was the race chaotic?

There is a clear explanation at the bottom of that window.

LEGEND
G = GOOD RACE on similar surface, approx distance, this level or HIGHER.
B = BAD RACE on similar surface, approx distance, this level or LOWER.
(off track races are forgiven.)
. = any other race.

After looking at this, do you still have questions?