How do I know what these are, and when to use them?

At The Wire
MONSTER
Whales (4)
The Arthur — Tom Atwater

1. What they are is in the description.
2. How to use them is dependent upon your personal strategy.


Part 3 - will be WEDNESDAY at 4:30pm pacific time.
This is Q & A to make sure everyone is up to date.

** Anyone who has not completed Part 2 - Full onboarding - WILL BE COMPLETELY LOST.
** Only about half have completed Part 2. (We've done 2 live sessions and recorded both.)

Part 4 - Hopefully the following week
Part 4 is HOW TO BUILD YOUR OWN SYSTEM.
We will start with what I am calling EASY MODELING.

After Part 4 we'll change to full-on TEACHING MODE.
The workshops will slow down - every 2 weeks, then every 3 weeks, then ???
We'll also do some live play sessions.

These sessions will go on indefinitely.
______________________
We will build this community with interaction and collaboration.
The people who choose not to participate will find themselves far behind.

It can actually be the same day.
You MUST have all windows closed when you open a day - even if it's the same day.

Having an open window stops the old data from being deleted because the files are locked by the window.

How you fix it...
Reimport the day from scratch, including results if there were any.

The issue is that when you opened the day, you had one or more windows open.

It corrupted the day.

I had it too it was a nice hit — Ira Yorn

Pounding it!

↪Gillycapper I was just starting to post. I had the winner as well. I watched the replay just to make sure the #3 won. — Jim Pommier

And two Movers score big!

Had a nice win at 50/1 today at MVR. And my system nailed it!! Exacta paid 281 for every 2 wagered. — Gillycapper

Nice!
Congratulations, Super Star!

Nailed it

The great part about these sessions is that everyone involved in these sessions takes new stuff away - including me!

Did the Is Early factor help?

1. Whales win on rebates.
2. ADW's pay for the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.
3. Tracks sell the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.

LOL... there's room for us on this list. — Dio

Dio,

They can't stop us because we've CALIBRATED THEM!

Just make sure that you don't miss this seminar!
https://www.community.horsestreet.com/discussion/1244/get-you-winning-seminar-part-1-march-25/p1

Then they're going totally off the large rebate they get. — Andrew Kramer

Yes, that's how it works.
It's also how I arrived at the idea of using the hedge horses for hit rate knowing I couldn't make a profit.

My hunch is that the whales throw in everything, including the kitchen sink, and run a logistic regression model. Their aim is to have (my guess) a 0-2% ROI. But with a 10% rebate, their true ROI is 10-12%. That may not sound like much (my models are way better, but I can't wager 200k per race), but if they play something like 80 races per day at 200k per race, that's a return of $160k PER DAY. — Andrew Kramer

The recognized Whale business model has been LOSE 3.5% per wagered dollar.

There is an old Whale axiom: "If you're making a flat profit, you aren't betting enough."

I've always been curious about that. Unfortunately, not something I would understand. BTW, I'm guessing it's 5:00 AM there. Get a life!! — Dio

LOL
In bed at 8:30 and works well.

But "get a life" is a really cool idea.
:wink:

Statsitical.

Actually, they do not use AI.
The use Iterative Regression.

That's why we've got such an edge.

Hi Andrew, I was going to say that even if the favorites are down, it wouldn't laffect the number Dave gave us above by much. maybe going from 37.9 down to 37.2. — Gillycapper

Actually, looking at the last quarter of 2025, Favs hit 44% - glad to see that has subsided a little.

But the reason for 2026 changes appears to be a single, dominant Whale team having moving their bets from Favs to 2nd choices.

Your data is wrong.
Current hit rate on Favs is 37.9%.

It is DOWN from 4th quarter last year, by ~4%.

This is 2026 data.
(5 days behind)

Then why would pars be obsolete?

Or do you mean, "If I use BRIS data, why would I need to buy par times?"

The invention of the BRIS Pace Ratings numbers would seem to make the need for PARs obsolete, since the BRIS is "are fully adjusted for track variations, comparable across North American tracks". Is my thinking correct? — Tim Romero

Respectfully, I would say that your thinking is very NOT CORRECT.

I assume that you know I've been in the Par business for over 3 decades.

I will further assume that you know BRIS has pars somewhere that are used to build those pace numbers.

My question to you would be, "Why would you assume that BRIS' ratings would be better than anyone else's?"

along with what you said I am wondering about "concentration". and if/how that interacts with it. I have a mild issue with that. It is not always what it should be. I am 83 — donald altemose

I remember you.
This is a favorite personal topic of mine and I study it very seriously.