Here's a good BALO check (unfortunately it doesn't happen all that often). NOTE: I've been testing all races except MSW, MdClm and 4-horse races.
Dirt races with the Red Running Style E or EP on the My Hcp screen. Horses with Running Style (RS - 402) 4 and 5 with Early Speed points (ES - 202) 0 or 1 Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
Turf races with the RED E (NOTE: I tested GPX and TAM). Horses with 0 or 1 Early Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
GPX Tapeta races with the RED E. Have tested the last 28 Tapeta races with the RED E-- have not come across a horse with 0 or 1 Early Speed points that won.
It takes a pretty good horse with 0 or 1 ES points to close and win a Running Style E race.

I look forward to hearing more of this tomorrow.

Flip-side. 25 Dirt races at MVR, PRX, GPX and TAM (no MSW, MdClm or 4-horse races). RED Running Styles EP, LP and SR. Only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
16 Turf races at GPX and TAM (EP, LP and SR)-- no 8 or 7 ES point winners.
15 Tapeta races at GPX (EP, LP and SR)-- only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
Sample size is small. But it does appear that ES 8 and 7 front runners struggle when the RED Running Style is not E.

Dave: I assume that your research is for cases where low odds horses can be tossed from win consideration. Has your research also come across situations where the low odds horse or horses can be tossed from the place hole as well?