Here's a good BALO check (unfortunately it doesn't happen all that often). NOTE: I've been testing all races except MSW, MdClm and 4-horse races.
Dirt races with the Red Running Style E or EP on the My Hcp screen. Horses with Running Style (RS - 402) 4 and 5 with Early Speed points (ES - 202) 0 or 1 Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
Turf races with the RED E (NOTE: I tested GPX and TAM). Horses with 0 or 1 Early Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
GPX Tapeta races with the RED E. Have tested the last 28 Tapeta races with the RED E-- have not come across a horse with 0 or 1 Early Speed points that won.
It takes a pretty good horse with 0 or 1 ES points to close and win a Running Style E race.

I look forward to hearing more of this tomorrow.

Flip-side. 25 Dirt races at MVR, PRX, GPX and TAM (no MSW, MdClm or 4-horse races). RED Running Styles EP, LP and SR. Only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
16 Turf races at GPX and TAM (EP, LP and SR)-- no 8 or 7 ES point winners.
15 Tapeta races at GPX (EP, LP and SR)-- only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
Sample size is small. But it does appear that ES 8 and 7 front runners struggle when the RED Running Style is not E.

Dave: I assume that your research is for cases where low odds horses can be tossed from win consideration. Has your research also come across situations where the low odds horse or horses can be tossed from the place hole as well?

I just have zero interest in the place or show pools.

For that matter, when there is a bonafide projected Low Odds horse - they are either BALOs, meaning BAD BETS, or they are horses to NOT be bet!!!

Yes, I understand what I just said: you either don’t bet them because they are BAD BETS or you don’t bet them because they prevent you from making money.

The difference between the two is that with a BALO you could throw darts in the race and break even, while in the other races the OPTIMAL play would be to just let them beat you.

They rarely pay more than $4.60 and the average price is about $3.95.

IOW, having such a horse in the race is an indication of healthy payoffs on EVERYONE else!

I tend to play quite a lot of longer priced horses and like to employ the exacta as a place bet strategy. I will generally wheel these horses front and back with the two betting favorites in the race in the exacta. So being able to potentially eliminate some of these low priced horses from the bottom of the exacta would be advantageous.

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For clarity, you CANNOT do this with LIVE ODDS.

It must be accomplished completely without the tote!

And the Morning Line will not be strong enough to accomplish this.

This is why the AI Line is such a huge step forward - because it EXAGGERATES the odds based upon the FACTORS that have been historically predictive of how the public bets.

You, as a former HSH user, know of the object known as the Artificial Morning Line (aML).

As good as that is at pointing to the ultimate favorites, it simply cannot predict HOW STRONG these horses LOOK!
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BTW, many BALOs actually go UP in odds.
While people would see this as a GOOD thing, it's not.

That's simply the whales and smarter players NOT BETTING a horse who looks obvious.

They simply do not win at a price.

There is an exception - BALOs that are above (say) 8/1 or so in the gate can be bet. They will come up a handful of times each month and the $Net on such horses is probably around $6 or so.

Actually caught one a couple of years ago that paid $18, but these days I rarely even look at the tote board because it is such a distraction.

I tend to play quite a lot of longer priced horses and like to employ the exacta as a place bet strategy. I will generally wheel these horses front and back with the two betting favorites in the race in the exacta. So being able to potentially eliminate some of these low priced horses from the bottom of the exacta would be advantageous. — Dave Salvini

That's a good strategy, without true BALO information.

BALOs lose about half their wins, but run 2nd an inordinate number of times.

They should definitely be KEYED underneath.

Thanks Dave, that is good information.