Not currently a Determinator user and this is not meant to be a redboard, but I had this horse as a play because I just love 2nd time Lasix horses combined with any type of potentially positive change: In this case the improved workout since last raced and blinkers-on. I have had more than just a few scores lately in maiden races that look very similar to this one.

Just curious in terms of your lingo on your software where the number # 11 Idratherbeblessed was on your line in Race # 10 at Fair Grounds was Sat. and was wondering where "First Pitch" last race at Aqueduct yesterday. LOL.. funny baseball season getting underway... there is no cheating in horse racing despite being very cheap horses in the last race...........................

I've been working on an exacta strategy for a couple months. First posted an overview of it on this forum back in January and have been tightening it up ever since. Several weeks of back-testing and live play with small stakes ultimately gave me the conviction to take it to the windows this weekend. Encouraging results!

I live in a state where I can bet on Amwager, which has an exacta dutching feature. (Worth checking out for anyone with access). With this ability to dutch exactas, I'm typically playing tickets A-B or A-B-C over A-B-C-D-E. And sometimes hedging D-E over A-B-C.

My contender process is a combo of Best Horse Rank/Magnitudes 1/1 and 2/2 and the lowest Object Odds of my H's, using the "Fire LH System" button and natural odds to identify my H's. My BALO process draws from a combo of The Neal, Brian's original report and the new AI Object that is Object #2 in The Brian. In most races I can leave one low-odds horse in. I'd say I'm striving for two parts hit rate and one part value, because my ultimate goal is to play exacta dutches with large unit sizes i.e. $100 or more per race. So I want a hit rate in the mid-50s to 60% to sustain the larger unit size without fear of a major drawdown. For me value comes primarily from playing against low odds horses in the win slot. (I typically leave them in place slot).

Internet went down Saturday mid-session and when it came back on I was too disgusted to play again after seeing that I missed three consecutive winning races. Did cash 3 of 5 races before losing internet. Today I hit 6 of 7 races live. I sat out the eighth race on a gut that I was due for some regression, and it lost, so I'm calling it 6 winners in 8 races today. Total 9 winners in 13 races for the weekend.

My average return on the winning exacta dutches this weekend was 112% or IOW a $100 exacta dutch returned an average $212. This is consistent with my results when I was testing under simulated live conditions. And my back testing indicates that a hit rate of 55 to 60% is very achievable. (I can't quote an exacta number because my process has evolved over these past several weeks).

I'm playing field sizes 7+, no races with FTS 2+ and only races that are 88:2, 88:3, 88:4 and 88:5. Playing both Chaos 1 and Chaos 5, and with this approach I have yet to find much difference in how to play them. IOW I'm "handicapping" all races including Chaos 5. There are indeed some races, usually Chaos 1, where I'm not able to eliminate enough of the exacta pool to generate the needed ROI, so I skip these races.

If this keeps up- and several weeks of testing/researching/tweaking leads me to believe there's a good chance it will- then I could be right where I want to be with deT, which is to ultimately play professionally or semi-professionally. My approach is not for everyone- it is tote-dependent and requires submitting these dutch tickets as horses are loading. And of course one needs to play in a state with Amwager access. (At the Races Pro also has an exacta dutching tool and a file upload feature to the other major ADW's).

Thanks Guys!
Who knows, this may be a very short discussion, but to kick things off I believe we need to answer two questions:
1. In terms of handicapping information, what do we give up by pre-betting races?
2. How will this impact how we use DET?

Here is my 2 cents on each:
1.What do we give up when betting early?

• No live Tote odds
• No insight into potentially changing track conditions (or bias).
• Inability to adjust for Late Scratches (pace picture impacts)
• No "In-race" or "In-session" situational information
• No wager level adjustments
• Anything else?

The impact from any of these will certainly vary based on your individual approach (ie; I typically play longer priced contenders so the live odds are less important to me)

2. How will this impact how we use DET?

• Can't use an approach that requires the Tote
• No "race-to-race" situational information available (This would preclude applying any risk approach as we discussed yesterday)

Depending on your approach with DET, pre-betting may require very little, if any adjustment... or, it may require a significant change in DET-related tactics.

As mentioned above, this may be a fairly short discussion, but I beleive it is worth having and I'm looking forward to it!

I would prefer to leverage the PSR work that I've already completed (and still in progress). Everyone is welcome to it.

Summary: 200+ races (no maiden races). I used GPX, TAM and PRX. PSR Rank 1 contenders win ~31%, Rank 2 ~20% and Rank 3 ~18%. PSR Ranks 1, 2, 3 ~ 70%. Ranks 4 and higher ~30%. Chaos 5 races, Ranks 4 or higher win at a higher percentage.

Keep in mind that the above are averages and results go in spurts (as Dave says above). Streaks where a Rank 1, 2 or 3 contender wins 12 out of 14 races; or a Rank 4 or higher wins 6 out of 10.

All of this circles back to Dave's takeaways above-- Hit Rate and Value. I know that PSR Ranks 1, 2 and 3 contenders achieve hit rate. So what I'm working on now is a BALO process to eliminate contenders with AI Lines <2-1 (1.99-1 or less). Brian just gave me and idea on how to help the process that I think will work.

Then something like this. Chaos 0, 1, 2 and 3 races-- focus on hit rate. Determine if a low odds AI line contender can be eliminated and play the other PSR contenders. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- focus on value. Look to include PSR Ranks 4 and higher contenders. PSR Rank 3 contenders pay about ~$11.60; so you simply cannot dismiss all of the low rank PSR contenders. Need a mix.

My opinion, something like this. PSR Rank 1, 2 and 3 contenders in Chaos 1 - 3 races-- Low Risk. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- Medium Risk.
PSR Ranks 4 and higher in Chaos 1 - 3 races-- High Risk. Chaos 4 and 5 races-- Medium Risk.

I'm in

I need a new desktop. I'm looking for something to crunch numbers fast for when I use the PickMaster and Study Analyst tools in HSH. Please forward any and all suggestions.

The "Risk" score is a great idea. Hopefully, someone out there who studies their bets in Excel will calculate a risk score for each race bet and track how they perform in different risk scores...and then share their results with us. The beauty about the risk score is that it is a dT generated figure that reduces the need to take a peek at the tote board--for those of us who still like to see what the public thinks before making a bet.

Hi Jeff... Greg Gentzler here. I work 5 days a week so I too like to, or must, handicap in advance. I'm time limited but I'd like to participate whenever possible.

Hi All-
As much as I am motivated to bring my session play to another level, I also am keen on identifying/defining ways to use DET to effectively pre-bet my races on days when I am traveling, need to spend time with the grand kids or in the yard; etc. :-) I'd love to form a group from this team who might be interested in a similar approach to the game. I have some early ideas but would like to hear from anyone that has an interest in digging deeper into this approach. I'm inherently lazy and dream of making all of my bets in the morning and counting my cash before bed :-)

Please let me know if you are interested in further discussion!

Thanks for this Dave.
Today’s session was interesting for me in that I went from more “Dazed and Confused” half-way through, to a real “Ah Ha” moment for me later on in the session.
For me, you provided a framework of the DET capabilities within the constructs of HOW they might be applied given what you are trying to accomplish in the situational moment (Risk-based approach). The analogies to football play calling were very helpful. I think Horseplayers (me included) like to forge a “Method/Approach/Process” that fits all scenarios.

What brought it to ground for me was when you added the “Risk/Reward” element near the end and having a true sense of being in control based on what I am trying to accomplish at the moment. That's pretty refreshing to me actually...

In short, you provided a great foundation for me to develop my own approach that incorporates different levels of risk, depending on what I am looking to accomplish for the situation facing me at that moment.

My objective moving forward is to formulate my tiers of risk, test them, and apply them appropriately for each situation that I face in my session play. Thanks again!

Play along Day 1, the 6 mandatory races.
OPX R2 - #7
TAM R5 - #12
AQU R6 - #5
GPX R9 - #8
SAX R5 - #4
TPX R3 - #5

There's also 10 optional races. My strategy would be to filter through all of the eligible tracks for Chaos 5 races looking for price horses. It's tough, not an easy task.

That's pretty normal in that environment. Kudos to you for realizing it and I bet you're formulating a new process to deal with it. All the best tomorrow.

Bottom Line =

DO NOT depend on sitting there and doing
races as they come up. They come too fast
and too hard!!

Know which races you are going to bet
AND how many horses in each depending
on Field Size and Chaos Level and FTS
and number of Lightly Raced horses. You
must have these mapped out in advance.

The main TV screen changes from your race
immediately after the race is finished. You will
have a difficult time getting final odds if you won
if you don't use the tote function in Determinator
or write down the odds on your horses during the
running of the race.

Today was an education!! Lots of winners were
predicted by Determinator and I would have been
EXTREMELY profitable instead of just profitable
if I followed my betting rules.

I was the problem!!!

Organize - Execute!!

So much different than sitting at home with 2 monitors
and a huge desk.

Wait until I tell you why I posted it.

That will Saturday morning.

First, Rook was brilliant.

But the backstory is incomplete.
Let me present it by the numbers.
______________________________
1. Rook did not handicap WITHIN HSH.
He handicapped using a CSV export.
______________________________
2. In HSH v2, the composites were ALL based upon RANKS.
That is, the composite ratings themselves were ACTUALLY COMPUTED after the raw version of the the numbers were turned into ranks.
______________________________
3. This created a problem for Rook.
The problem was that every time a horse scratched, every horse that was below the scratched horse in any factor used in a composite CHANGED forcing a re-export of the data for the race.
______________________________
4. Because Rook's software did not import just a single race, he had to reimport the entire card!
______________________________
5. During HSH v2's time, Rook lobbied very hard for that to change.
I resisted, but he ultimately unionized the HSH forum until he had everyone screaming for Rook to get his way.
______________________________
6. Ironically, the change was a MASSIVE IMPROVEMENT.
Seriously, never had any single upgrade worth so much. LOL
______________________________
7. But his results weakened.
We eventually figured out why.

It turned out that APV had been SORTING UPSIDE DOWN for years!
______________________________
8. Rook said that I broke his results.
He wanted me to put the bug back.
______________________________
9. I explained that coding & data integrity just would not allow that.
Besides, it was his idea. LOL
______________________________
10. Seems reversing APV was getting him some whopper Trifectas & Supers.
I offered to build him another version that sorted in reverse but he said that it had to have the same number or it messed up all his system.
______________________________
11. Again he tried to unionize...
... but the ridiculousness of the request - to ignore data integrity - was just not well-received.
______________________________
12. Rook started other threads on PA, all in the same vein.
Now, Rook was a fair man, and always started the thread by saying how well he was doing with HSH, and sharing his NET WIN for the previous year.

(if you do some other advanced searches on PA, I am sure you can find them.)
______________________________
13. As an aside, every time he made an angry post bashing HSH...
... I sold about 15-20 copies of HSHs that month.
______________________________
14. When he said that he'd made over...
... $400,000 in each of the previous 2 years (as I recall), that number about doubled.
______________________________
15. Idiot that I was... (you guys will like this one)
... after one particularly ugly post, I THANKED HIM for making my cash register ring.
______________________________
16. He never made another post.
Yes, I was THAT stupid.
______________________________


EPILOGUE
Years later, we spoke again.
As I recall, he had banked enough and was retired.

It was also a time when the whales were really starting to make the game really difficult.

TO GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE...
...as I said earlier, Rook was a brilliant man who did an amazing job of leveraging my work into a REAL BUSINESS.

Under the hood there are some very strong mathematical concepts that he gave me. They did not go into HSH publicly until he was done playing.

Rook was (maybe still is) a very anal superfecta bettor.
The whole thread Dave links to is worth a read. I remember him from the HSH board.

Brian The @ponyplayer and I were having a discussion and this topic came up.

It led to a very interesting discussion.

The link is to the first post in the thread (from 2006)

ROOK was a very successful HSH user, who openly discussed his level of profit. In later posts on PA, he advanced his income from racing (still using HSH) to almost double what he spoke about in that thread.

”A guy who made $100k+ with HSH last year”


______________________
Quote from the thread
To be precise, in 18 months, I have made $260k using a combination of HSH, HTR, PaceFigures and Formulator. I’ll give your program the most credit because I have been using it the longest.

“bad mouths the software”

I stated that people should buy it. That’s the highest endorsement I can make. I’m sorry that you go ballistic over criticism, even if it is justified by the facts. — Rook

The entire thread is worth reading - you can find the full thread link on that page.

PaceAdv: HSH 3 Is the New Coke Of Handicapping Software

da Proof:
PARX R10
cRtg1= 4,5,11
those three ran first, second, and 4th…dime soop $558, #4 paid $27.40 for the win…
just sayin’, as they say…
gino

i’m just fine, thank you

You really need to come in from the cold and catch up with the times.

@PickMaster or Brian the @ponyplayer can bring you up to speed in like an hour.

Picker:
gotcha.
no clue about Objects, not my jam.
back in the day i used to find it interesting to run a filter for a certain track (and certainly T/S/D variations) and then run a simple one factor rank of one system against it….remedial education at its
best!! when you find that cRtg 1 or PSR 1 whilst winning thirty % or better in general win 80% at odds < 9/5 or whatever, it can serve as a serious nudge towards getting on Bandwagon El Favorito or continuing your career as a suicide bettor….
the merits of many handicapping programs are eternally debatable, but i have always thought that HSH
provided serious educational opportunities for peeps trying to transition from handicapping to betting….
an open mind and a decent bankroll required, needless to say…
keep on choogling.
gino

PickMaster-
nice work cleaning up those posts..use your cursor to bump a couple of rows and they’re perfect…my longtime philosophy has been to downgrade or ignore the products of lazy editors, poor spellers, crummy coders, stinky thinkers, anything that reeks “dumbass”….these are the people you are betting against…leave them and their stupidity bereft of your insights…
when you spot a well presented, crisply scripted, thought provoking presentation, perk up and pay attention- this is where you find the game changing nuggets that bump up your ROI…
re: your tables in general, if i may?
looking at linear output and realizing how lousy your rank of 1/$net is should send a rational degenerate off to play scratchers, slots, or sports betting…HSH has those nifty little odds ranges (dig until you find them) that will teach you when, where, and how to bet….why? remains elusive…
gino

DS- not so much, hehehe…
Red, Emir of Fort Erie-
i still juxtapose The Comp Screen Raw with the DK All screen…a literal Popper named Flood Zone paid
$37.60 in a Gr3 race at AQU (8th) yesterday…not a theoretically preferable type, but a “do not overthink”payday horse, there for the taking….PopUps make excellent “and one” additions to both horizontal and vertical wagers…
so yes, i still see them.
all day long.
g