Thanks Dave. I like the idea of "sizing your bets based upon Expected Hit Rate".

looking forward to making progress. thanks

You may have noticed that I've been very much NOT HERE for a couple of months.

What I have been working on for almost 3 months can best be described as a POWERFUL NEW UNDERSTANDING.

@ponyplayer and @Jeff Capper have been involved more than anyone else but you'll all begin to see the results of the work in just a few more days.

I've built some very interesting new tools.
Those tools led to new discoveries.
And those discoveries led to even more discoveries.
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Brian recently posted a video he made of one of the major discoveries - about the 89%. But there is so much more - even on that topic. That video showed a very simple approach that uses the AI Line to consistently get over 90% of the winners in the projected 89%.

That may not sound like much... until you realize that sometimes there are only (say) THREE horses in a 7-horse field and it will still hit the 90+%.
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I have high hopes that I will be able to spend time on next week creating some very short videos that will explain what I (and we) have learned. Once I get a few of those in the can, I'll begin to release them on a daily basis.

These discoveries are going to blow your mind - as will YOUR results - should you decide to integrate some of these concepts and components.

There are also a handful of SPREADSHEETS that do some really cool stuff that will become an amazing COMPANION that will do some amazing things like sizing your bets based upon the EXPECTED HIT RATE on the horses you are going to bet - relative to the percent of EXPEDCTED POOL PERCENT those horses should have - while NEVER LOOKING AT THE TOTE BOARD!


Dave

scratches now up

Ira- I too have encountered the same question. My problem is more related to horizontal wagers than exacta plays. Assuming a 78% win one four contenders I would hit less than 40% OF PICK 4 plays.
My solution has been to key races in a sequence to one or two contenders and playing all contenders in the other races. This has resulted in careful ticket writing to show a rather small profit.
If I was focusing on exactas I would look for races where I was comfortable keying on one or two horses as winner while dutching others to place in exactas. Does your record keeping tell you how many times the win/place are part of your contenders? I'm impressed with your contender selection process but we are fighting to insure capturing the place horse. Please keep me posted on your progress

What I am certain of is that my of top 4 contenders 1 is winning 78% of the time . What I think is going wrong is that I am unable to narrow them to one or two contenders some are won by class or early pace combining low and high neal so I need some help narrowing down the contenders to the winners

My hit rate is pretty good but I have a hard time narrowing down contenders to bet exactas. I have a tendency to overbet