It's not AI.

It is done using factors from HSH and mathematical jujutsu.

The best part is that it it’s built on using AI odds instead of ML or the tote.

65 more races =

Races with at least 1 rank 1: 44 68%
(There can/will be multiple horses per race that have
at 1 rank 1 in their factors.)
Races with no rank 1's and at least 1 rank 2: 14 22%
Races with NO rank 1's or 2's: 7 11%

If a horse has no rank 1's or 2's, there is a 89% chance
that they will lose.

Horses may rank low, but still have a single 1 e.g.
1-7 and rank 5+ and still be able to win. Do not
overlook these horses.

65 more races =

88: 2-3-4
rank 1-3 = 36 82%
rank 4 = 4 9%
rank 5+ = 3 7%

88:5+
rank 1-3 = 10 48%
rank 4 = 0
rank 5+ = 11 52%

Swing for the fences ONLY when races are 88:5+??
Or in races 88:2-3-4 where a top 4 horse has a rank 1 or 2
and is high odds.

Yes = same report as RunStyleEQ =

On races 88:2-4 = 75% winners in ranks 1-3
...............................15% winners in rank 4

On races 88:5-8 = 60% winners rank 5+
................................30% winners ranks 3-4

90% of the winners have LH column at spreads starting
with 1 or 2 (1-2 or 1-4 or 2-3 or...). A few winners have
ratings such as 1-7 and may be rank 7 or 8. These horses
CAN be live!! Do not automatically dismiss them.

Be very cognizant of what your 88:x is. It determines how
deep you need to go to find the winner.

Note: sample size is 100 races. More coming to confirm
the accuracy of the above.

The original Key to the Mint article is where I first discovered Dave 20 years ago, and it led me to HSH!

A simple $2 win bet on that horse would have paid more than winning the 12 race contest!

Hey guys,

6 months later and long overdue, I wanted to give an update on my BALO analysis. Over time I was able to test "chink in the armor" BALO's from 11/1/23 to 9/22/24. I was able to track 10,560 BALO's during that period. At some point, I gave up on small tracks (diminishing returns) and focused only on the following tracks: AQU, CD, CNL, DMR, ELP, FG, GG, GP, HAW, IND, KD, KEE, LRC, LRL, MED, MTH, OP, PIM, PRX, SA, SAR, TAM, TP, WO.

Of the 10,560 BALO's, they return $0.776 per $1 dollar wager. These BALO's go off at odds of 3-1 on average.

As a reminder, the definition of a BALO is magnitude 1 horse according to the AI Line, but not a magnitude 1 horse in either the AI BH, Pace E, Pace EP, Pace LP, or Pace SR.

Personally, I use some of my own proprietary data to filter these BALO's to where they return about $0.74 per $1 dollar wagered. I'm sure there's other ways w/in DET for you to find the best BALO's to fade.

My question to the group is what other BALO methods are being used by others? I might have the data accessible to test further BALO theories.

Dennis

This is from my HSH database. It includes all races--no exlcusions.

Eyeball scan and enjoy!

Yes, I'm very much interested in this. I don't have any new ideas other than the work you already did for $net and =>3-1 odds at GPX, TAM and PRX. So I'm open to any suggestions and the BALO idea may be a good start.

I'm looking to team up with other users to conduct handicapping research for use with dT or HSH. I have over ten years of data in my HSH database (the Model folder) that I can use to test your ideas. As we know, there is no database in dT, but we could put together a group to test certain aspects of it. For example, a bunch of us could put together a list of 1000 BALO races. Those of us with HSH could then bang those races in a study to test against the database and share the results with the group.

Don't be shy and post your ideas. Let's get a discussion going!

You're correct. With DET, we have the AI Line, AI Best Horse, Chaos 1-5 and the 62: & 88:. I guess that sometimes we tend to line-up what we have with his "Boards". I prefer the combination of what DET has. Chaos 1-5, we could make the argument that there are five (5) different types of races versus the four (4) "Boards".
I don't agree with his betting strategies-- "tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices", "eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot" and "make a win bet on the 3rd choice". Seems very rigid. Maybe it's simply suggestions.

I ran across an article by Ryan at Betting the Odds
Betting the Odds where he summarized the rules from articles by Tom Amello from America's Best Racing
Tom Amello articles

Tote board watchers have 4 types of betting patterns that they need to recognize as post time nears:

"Monster Board
The favorite is heavily bet.

These very low-odds horses win at such a high rate that it would be careless to always bet against these favorites.

The strategy with these races is to accept that the favorite is going to win and look to bet exactas tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

Two-Headed Board
The public cannot make up its mind on who it favors. Tom’s analysis says this is the board classification when the two favored horses combine for 65% to 80% of the pool.

One of these two heavily backed horses has a high percentage chance to win.

The betting strategy is to play an exacta with both favorites on top and eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot.

Balanced Board
The favorite is in the 8/5 to 2/1 range.

A balanced board is just that, the public has a clear 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice in the betting.

His suggestion is to say the favorite is a play against and look to make a win bet on the 3rd choice. Then look to use a combination of exactas with the top three betting choices.

Chaos Board
No runner is 2/1 or less.

Opportunity to bet on long-odds runners that aren’t part of the top three betting choices. Don’t be afraid of Dutch betting win tickets.

Look to bet combinations of exactas with horses used to win in both 1st and 2nd place slots with other longshots you view as contenders. Also, add the morning line favorite only in the 2nd place slot."



With Determinator, we don't have to wait for bettors to show us the type of race we are playing. The AI Line gives us the same information when we open the race to handicap it. We definitely have the advantage!!

Do you agree with the suggestion that there are 4 different types of races?

Do you play them differently?

From the Paulick Report =
https://paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/shue-fly-stakes-to-run-with-six-horses-after-eight-qualifiers-test-positive-for-albuterol

This weekend's Grade 2 Shue Fly Stakes at Sunland Park (Sunland Park, N.M.) will run with a gate that's nearly half-empty. Since the trials on Jan. 11, eight qualifiers tested positive on out-of-competition hair tests for albuterol.

Horses with the top 14 times in the trials were tested. The conditions of the Shue Fly indicate the top ten fastest times are supposed to move on to the final."


No wonder I've never been able to win at Sunland. I wonder how wid-spread
this is?

From the Paulick Report:

The clock is ticking on the end of live Thoroughbred horse racing at Gulfstream Park.

"That's the message to South Florida horsemen conveyed by Keith Brackpool, representing the Hallandale Beach, Fla., track's owner, The Stronach Group, according to several people in attendance at a contentious meeting held there on Wednesday morning.

Racing will run into 2028, Brackpool told horsemen, according to those in attendance, if legislation is passed in the state capitol permitting Thoroughbred tracks to decouple or eliminate the requirement to conduct live racing in order to maintain operations of a slot machine casino. Brackpool made no guarantees beyond 2028, those in attendance said. If the legislation, introduced earlier this month by state Rep. Adam Anderson, does not pass, Brackpool said, The Stronach Group is within its rights to pull the plug on racing at any time.

"It was a lot of talk and not a lot of facts," said trainer Dale Romans. "Basically, we were getting threatened by Gulfstream Park that they could close it anytime if they wanted to, if this decoupling didn’t go through. If it did, we were guaranteed three more years, and that was it. Decoupling will be the end of Gulfstream, in my opinion."

Romans said Brackpool stated multiple times during the meeting that Gulfstream's only obligation under the current law to maintain its slot machine license is to race a minimum of 40 days. The track races year-round now, with about 200 live racing days."

Will it survive? Where would you play instead??

My most sincere condolences and heartfelt prayers go out to you and your family. I am so sorry to hear of your loss. My wife and I will light a candle and put in a prayer service in honor of your Son tomorrow. May God Bless you and your family always.

Ryan Pip has a newsletter about handicapping. https://substack.com/@ryanpip

I've found track bias very difficult to use-- it's like trying to "time" the stock market. Check out Bob Pandolfo's track bias comments for Aqueduct at handicappingwinners.com . Pandy has a very detailed day-to-day analysis. Look how often he says there's a bias, but the next day it's gone. Pandy likes to play horses in their next race that for example performed well against what he determined was a speed/closing bias. But, that takes a lot of work and tracking, and it's somewhat subjective.

My opinion is that you don't always eliminate the Top horse. I think it needs further research and testing. As I said in the the other thread-- maybe start with the AI BH, the Neal and the *PS genre using the Obj Odds of the Top 2 horses. Test 50 races and see what you find.

Certainly horses with object odds (assuming the object is the blended AI Line with aML) less than 10-1 will win more often than horses with object odds over 10-1. But the key to profitability is betting horses which the public has underbet, regardless of the horses’ odds. You can cash a lot of tickets by betting “legitimate win contenders” and still lose money. It’s important to understand (and I know you do) that a legitimate win contender is not the same thing as a profitable bet.

what do you think about jimmy p.'s suggestion (although he noted it was a limited sample size) about object odds needing to be under 10 for ahorse to be a legitimate win contender? there were many other great ideas suggested as well. can't wait for the replay!

Granted a small sample size, but I can already see the power in the new Object Odds factor and why Brian choose it for his exacta wagering strategy. GPX the average winner's Object Odds are 7.08 and the median is 3.98 in 57 races. TAM-- 4.70 and 2.35 in 54 races (a lot of low priced winners at TAM recently). You can see the high number of winners for example if the Objects Odds are below say 3.25.
This is all races including MSW and MdClm's. MSW and MdClm's didn't seem to have a large impact that I thought it would. Guessing that's due to it's winter. I noticed that Brian's testing was in the Summer.

Also, started thinking about why always dropping the TOP Object horse to 2. If say the two (2) TOP horse's Object Odds meet certain criteria, then leave the TOP horse as a key and move the number 2 TOP horse to 2. For example when the TOP horse's Object Odds are greater than say 1.20.

Take it a step further. Using for example 88:5 and deciding whether or not to include a 6th horse. Would be easy to track and see the results of adding an extra horse. When these higher odds extra horses win, what were the Object Odds? Maybe between the Object Odds and the *PS magnitude there's a Yes/No as to when to add the extra horse.

I can see a lot of ways like the above to test and track while playing that may further improve this already powerful strategy.

Dave, so sorry to hear this. Condolences to you and family.

Yes indeed! I'm actually ready to take the exacta approach that I outlined recently in a separate thread to the windows. It's performing that well. Can't wait to see what you unveil Thursday, but I'm already quite pleased with where my deT journey seems headed

I'm continuing to see favorable AI output at the warm weather tracks- GP, TAM, TUP and SA. If there is any drop-off at all it seems concentrated at the cold weather tracks- PEN, PRX/PHA, MVR and CT.

Is it possible that in addition to the disrupted trainer schedules that have been discussed, the "winter racing" issues that we have seen for years are in part due to the simple physiological fact that some horses are just like humans and don't respond well to cold temperatures?

Started doing more testing on the update
with a Tuesday in August (Prx, Tdn, Fl, Ind) =

45% winners on top
33% winners in 2nd
22% 3rd or worse

If it holds, imagine 78% hit rate by dutching the top
2 rated horses. And not a single one paid under $4.00.

Unbelievable!!!

Be there Thursday night!! I will be.

It really is looking like way beyond what I had hoped for.

Thanks, Brian

I am testing your Thursday before the "State of the Program"
update.

Be excited. Good paying winners and lots of them
are on top in the Final Step. 2nd and 3rd running horses
are also up high. Exacta and Tri players should be
salivating on what is coming!!

Dave found a way to better the PSR by A LOT!! Preliminary
testing is 35-40% on top, not just the 30-32% with PSR
AND
they are not just low-paying favorites.

Don't miss the Thursday night get-together. Link
will be up soon.

My condolences to you and your family the loss of your son