One thing to remember is that we handicap the low odds differently than the
high odds horses. It is a 2-stage process. Kind of ends up like a Chinese
Restaurant menu - 1 from column A and 1 from column B (maybe 2 from column
B in a Chaos 5 race).

Low odds horse have to prove they can win - no vulnerabilities Higher odds
horses need to be capable of winning by being strong in 1 or 2 categories
but recognized/forgiven for their weaknesses..

The 88 is something that is generated from the AI line from my understanding. Its AI driven. Dave can explain best how the AI works to generate the numbers.

I’ve got to admit, this part about the 88 telling you how deep the winner usually is… that’s new to me, and I’ve been around a long time. If it really predicts the depth with that kind of accuracy, I can see why you’d grab the extra horse in those Chaos races.

What throws me is how something that simple never showed up in any of the books we all read over the last forty years. We were all out there guessing how wide to go, and meanwhile this number is practically tapping you on the shoulder.

I’m not using the DeTerminator yet, but the way you describe it, the 88 sounds like it does half the decision-making for you. I’d like to understand why it works that well.

Welcome. You are surrounded by a lot of talent in this group.

Dave: I hurt my back about 25 years ago at work and quickly realized that the seated position was probably the worst thing for causing more pain. Standing or laying on the side proved to be much more tolerable along with abdominal strengthening exercises.

One of the top 4 horses in an eight-horse field will win approximately 82% of the time. As is customary Dave being on point once again, the trick is to find value. Get better soon Dave. Take more drugs...! Better life through chemistry.

Hope you get well soon and the pain goes away. Take care and prayers.

Thanks Dio. That is good information. I am looking to getting up to speed with the program in a couple of months.

Unfortunately, I'm not necessarily an exacta player. I haven't tracked this, but I've noticed that the 1st and 3rd horses are on the board more often than not. The place horse-less occurring. Let me know if you find any data on this. You might be onto something.

So my contention that an 88:4 race being approximately in the middle of the possible range of contenders might indeed be a good candidate for a 4 horse exacta box? Or am I reading too much into this?

I like using it. It's a good starting point for picking contenders.

On Chaos 5 races with 88:5-6-+, I've found that you really need
to add 1 more horse. If it is a Chaos 5 and 88:5, take the 1st
6 horses, not just the 1st 5. 88:6 take 7. 88:7 take 8.

Dave is right. There is such a small difference between horses
5 and 6 that you really need to include him. If he is truly weaker,
he will be eliminated when you go through your eliminations. If
he has a chance to win, he will not be eliminated,

In Chaos races, we know that we need to go wider. Take that 1 extra
horse and give him consideration. You will be surprised at the extra
wins that you will get!!

I do tend to believe that win percentage can be used as a proxy for a horse's theoretical place and/or show percentage. Just about every stat I have ever seen show a factor's place hit percentage greatly exceed its win percentage in anything but the smallest samples if that factor is any good.

My experience is that the 88% is exceptionally accurate.

Sorry about that ponyplayer I guess I should have worded that more precisely. I WAS referring to the deTerminator's ability to able to come up with the winner 88% of the time with its 4 contenders. My question was only about the deTerminators ability to do this and not about any other method.

I believe the 88% metric is a probability for horses that can win the race, not necessarily run second or third for exacta and trifecta wagers. Also, there is an odds factor built in. Just because one of the horses in the group has a probability of 88% to win the race doesn't mean the others will have an 88% chance to run second, third, or fourth. I don't think it works that way.

Dave - How do you know when the 88% is precisely 4
without deTerminator?

You can have 4 competitors in a 5 horse field and 4 in a 12 horse field.
Or you can have 2 or 3 in a 5 horse field and 2-3-4-5-6-7 in a 12 horse field.

The question is how do you know how many?? WITHOUT deTerminator.
I'm not sure you CAN know without the program.

Why not wait for the races with precisely four contenders that comprise the 88% and just play a 4 horse exacta box with those? I would imagine that the hit rate would be pretty good.

Hey, StatsMan =
Welcome!! Glad to have you join us.

The 88 thing does work. We have several columns of
proprietary rankings that DO work and give you 88% winners
in the contenders that are flagged.

As the fields become more competitive, the number of
horses that make up the 88% goes up - there are more horses
that have a chance of winning. It can range from a low of 2
to as many as 7 or even 8 in a turf race with a very large field..

You need a clear way of judging how competitive each race is
and then determining how many horses can win - the 88%.

Very difficult to do without deTerminator.

How are you recreating the '88 thing'? As you can imagine there's lots of proprietary stuff in Det that would be nearly impossible to recreate on your own. And the 88% is just the tip of the iceberg.
So, first, I recommend that you prove to yourself that your group of '88%' horses actually have at least an 88% chance of including the winner. After that, figure out how to winnow that down to the number of horses you want to bet.

Hey, guys. I’m new here but have watched quite a few Det videos.

What I’ve seen, especially in the last couple of weeks, has been pretty impressive, especially all that 88 stuff.

I don’t use Det right now and I’ve tried to create the 88 thing on my own, but it just doesn’t seem to come out the same way.

Does it really work even close to what’s been shown with Det, or am I missing something pretty basic?

Nasal surgery. Chronic sinus infections, etc, etc for 25+ years. Decided to get it taken care of before the new year. Went well, no issues. Back in the saddle within a few days.