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  • Bill Rudnicki
    9
    Good morning;

    I'm babysitting the grandkids right now which is a real pleasure for me. I tend to play horizontal wagers and am hesitant in removing the D's and L's. for this type of wager. For example, I hit the late pick 4 yesterday at Saratoga; three d horses and 1 H5 won the pick 4. The way I tend to play is to use the 88 to get to the contenders, then use the penelope profit button and AB pace screen to finalize my wagers. I also tend to look for a key contender to single in any of my horizontal wagers. I will be trying the elimination method outlined yesterday in truly chaos races and see how it affects my results.
  • Dave Schwartz
    455

    This is a great topic - and one I won't be much help with.

    Not being a Horiz player, my best guess is that you must do some studying to figure out an optimum ticket structure for your particular style

    For example... using 4 dL-horses would probably be a waste of money.
  • Bill Rudnicki
    9
    This is why I look for a single to wager - it keeps costs down and I can still make a little bit of money if all D horses come in.
  • Ira Yorn
    28
    I play horizontals sometimes finding that single is very difficult and I also find D horses beating me when I try to skinny down the wagers try to find sequences where you can find some value that's what I do when I play them Unfortunately singles are usually D horses
  • Bill Rudnicki
    9
    D horses are almost always singles when I play. To pick a D horse to play as s single, I use the AB pace button and look to see if my single has 1's across the board. If so,that is usually my single.
  • Tom Atwater
    23
    I would guess that one way to get higher horizontal payoffs is to find d's that you do *not* like, and use the other contenders in that race. Or at least use them only minimally when you structure the ticket, suing more combinations with the others.
  • Dave Schwartz
    455
    This is why I look for a single to wager - it keeps costs down and I can still make a little bit of money if all D horses come in.Bill Rudnicki


    I don't see how that strategy can possibly produce long-term profit.
  • ponyplayer
    204
    How much is your ticket at $1.00?? Would the following
    help?

    It seems that a much larger percentage of non-d's and L's
    (profit horses) are coming in. And we are hitting a very high
    number of profit horses.

    If you 1x2x2x2 = $8 and do only the best d or L for the single
    and do 1 single per race you, have 4 races x $8 = $32.00
    if you eliminate all the d's and L's you have 2x2x2x2 = $16
    on 1 ticket if it is all profit horses that win.

    $32 + $16 = $48.00 would be the investment. You won't have
    a huge hit rate but it should be solid and you should make money.

    Another question is, what percentage of pick 4's do I need
    to hit to make my psyche comfortable? The higher the percentage
    of wins that you need, the greater the coverage you must have.
    But, that greater coverage also means less ROI. This is where
    you start = I must have a win percentage of ??? And I must
    have a return of ??? What is your sweet spot to satisfy both
    requirements? Only then do you know how large your wager
    will be.

    Thoughts??
  • Dave R
    30
    If you can find a single sometimes that can allow you to use the all button in a race. The all button can be your best friend in horizontals allowing for big payouts!
  • Ira Yorn
    28
    especially if the all button involves a maiden race
  • Tony Kofalt
    421
    The majority of my plays are on horizontal bets, specifically P 3-4 and P5's. In all honesty I am far from being an expert with DET, but I have committed myself to make this my lone tool. Let me offer a few ideas on horizontal wagers that you may find helpful. All feedback is appreciated. Here are my guidelines.
    01) I start by separating my contenders into two groups. A's and B's. A's include the top contenders, those most likely to win and horses where I expect their final odds to be overlaid. B's are all other contenders. A typical race for me will have one to four contenders.
    02) Once I've created the two contender groups I am off to ticket writing. I will use some races at Sar today as examples. I will focus on the early P4, races 2 thru 5. The contenders are noted below by program number.
    A's B's
    Race 2 2,4 1,3,6
    Race 3 10 1,9,11
    Race 4 6,7 1,3
    Race 5 4,8 1,5,14
    There were 5 contenders in race 2. One of the A's won and paid $9.24 as the 2nd betting choice. No big deal but we are alive. Race 3 featured a lone A along with 3 B's. My A was beaten, fortunately one of my B's won paying $7.50. Another 2nd choice winner.
    I race 4, there were 2 losing A' s with a B winning to pay $18.68. In race 5 an A delivered at $17.54. We have a winner!! To structure the tickets I required 2 A's to win. There is no magic in requiring 2 A's to win. Its my attempt to balance investment with potential profit. So the tickets looked like this.
    Ticket 1- 2,4 with 10 with 6,7 with 4,8= $4.00.
    Ticket 2- 2,4 with 1,9,10,11 with 1,3,6,7 with 1,4,5,8,14= $80
    Ticket 3- 2,4 with 1,9,10,11 with 6,7 with 1,4,5,8,14=$40
    Ticket 4- 1,3,6 with 10 with 1,3,6,7 with 1,4,5,8,14=$30
    Ticket 5- 1,3,6 with 10 with 6,7 with 4,8=$6
    Playing 50 cent tickets resulted with an investment of $160 cashing $1379.85 P4.
  • Jim Pommier
    182
    Nicely done! I see you had the #1 Classic Rock in Race #4-- $18.68.
  • Tom Atwater
    23
    Here are my guidelines.Tony Kofalt

    Great job Tony, you are an inspiration.

    So how did deT figure into your process?
  • Tony Kofalt
    421
    I did use Classic Rock as a B contender. He hadn't raced since November. The primary reason I used him was the first time drop into a maiden claimer. I hated the H9 rating but the class drop won me over.
  • Tony Kofalt
    421
    Hey Tom, I'd say I use the Magnitude rating D1, m3 and H5, etc most heavily. Since committing to DET, I have modified immensely. I had done all my handicapping through the traditional racing form. I was using the same info everyone else had and I was fortunate enough to eke out a living. After seeing DET in action, I committed myself to learn all I could about DET output. Today I use only DET info. It took months of reviewing results to develop methods and build confidence. I now print out a version AI Ast displays and do all my handicapping from there. The key, I think is using data my opponents don't have. Tom I've listened to your input and I'm sure you have a better grasp on
    DET than I do. Perhaps with a little help from Dave or Ponyplayer I will figure out how to post a screenshot on this board and explain how simple my thought process is.
  • Jim Pommier
    182
    I jokingly mentioned Classic Rock this morning since his name came up in a possible racing scandal. Twitter is blowing up. The NYRA has referred the matter to HISA.
    Five horses, including Classic Rock, all off layoffs from the Fair Hill Training Center, ran at Saratoga and Monmouth yesterday. Four of them won, same trainers, with huge Beyer jumps. Classic Rock from 60 to 91. Back-to-back 17-1 and 3.8-1 winners at Monmouth returned only $25.60 on a $2 Double, way less than the 1st leg winner. Another Fair Hill was supposed to run at PID today, but was a late scratch.
    So your winning selection may become part of racing history.
  • Dave Schwartz
    455
    Four of them won, same trainers, with huge Beyer jumps. Classic Rock from 60 to 91. Back-to-back 17-1 and 3.8-1 winners at Monmouth returned only $25.60 on a $2 Double, way less than the 1st leg winner. Another Fair Hill was supposed to run at PID today, but was a late scratch.
    So your winning selection may become part of racing history.
    Jim Pommier

    I saw that on PA.
    Here's the link to that discussion for anyone interested.

    Another article
  • Dave Schwartz
    455
    Perhaps with a little help from Dave or Ponyplayer I will figure out how to post a screenshot on this board and explain how simple my thought process is.Tony Kofalt

    We have a very tiny amount of storage space allocated here - like a total of 15GB.

    We had a founding user who insisted upon putting up 500mb PDFs of his handicapping every day. Imagine that he ate about 10GB in 3 weeks. Certainly not sustainable.

    When he wouldn't stop, I removed the files, and changed the settings. One must have a place of their own to upload and then share - unless your name is Dave or Brian.

    Oh, then I fired the member.
  • Ira Yorn
    28
    the dollar pick 3 in that sequence paid a whopping 79 dollars
  • Tom Atwater
    23
    Perhaps with a little help from Dave or Ponyplayer I will figure out how to post a screenshot on this board and explain how simple my thought process is.Tony Kofalt

    Would love to see that, Tony. What I have done in the past is upload the screenshot to Dropbox, create a public link to it, then copy the link to the Forum message. I can help you with this if you like. Send me a private message.

    As to me knowing a lot about deT, you are overestimating that ;-)
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