I actually did nothing but sweep the file for viruses and host it on our site.

Steven did all the work.

This is really good work!

Do you recall how Huey Mahl did this thing he called The Length Variant? This connects me to the next idea, and all of it connects back to YOUR WORK.

When I was doing work for some AUS a couple of years ago, I found some of their ideas quite intriguing. One was the idea of expressing "How They Ran" in terms of Odds & Beaten Lengths.

Thus, if you look at each odds range, and come up with the average lengths behind, one could say that a horse who ran (say) 2.5 lengths behind ran like he was (say) 5/2.

Your work is similar but expressed as a win percentage (I assume).

This is a really goods idea.

Is this the average of the best three (3) in the race? Seems like I heard this in a workshop but I don't remember it exactly. — Steven

It is how ever you choose to look at it, but better would be:

Best-of-Last-2 in sprints
Best-2-of-Last-3 in Routes.

Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times? — Conley

If you want to know what the PAR FOR THE RACE would be, then:

1. Start with the CLASS PAR for the level (i.e. the par number like 103.4 or whatever)
2. Subtract the Female adj.
3. Subtract the statebred adjustment.
(Don't forget the N2L adjustment if applicable)
This number becomes PAR NUMBER for the race.

However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.

This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.

I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races? — Steven

Yes.
I'd expect that a 5-6 horse would perform better/differently in a field where there were no 7-8s.

This is overly simplistic - and subsets cut down your sample sizes - demanding far more races. Like a full magnitude more.

But the info you gather is huge, as are the ensuing improvements.

Gee, aren't you the greatest poster in the history of PaceAdv?

LOL

Welcome over here, old friend.

Can you break it down to where the top horse is 5 or 6 ? Then break that down to those with 5 or 6 which also have a 4 point edge? — William Zayonce

Yes, and please have this on my desk by tomorrow morning.


Geez, Bill. Maybe clip a couple of c-notes to this request. LOL

PS: Exciting, isn't it?

So that means a top horse "8" and a top horse "3" are all included.

And THAT means you can easily break out the 3s from the 8s and all the others to see if there are SUBSETS that are more powerful.

You should have a good time with that.

So, if you had a race where the horses were:

• 8
• 5
• 3
• 3
• 1
• 1
• 0

You'd play the 8?

QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROI — Steven

How are you picking the horse(s) to bet?

Most points?
A minimum pct?
Multiple horses?

Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98. — Steven

Still shows how powerful it is.

• How many races in the sample?
• Is it ALL SPRINTS?
• Have you considered breaking races out by ES Point "Shapes?"

"Shape" means (for example):
7-8's in the race?

We actually had it in our DOS product, the Handicapper's Notebook. (HNB)

Thank you.

Guys, I am so under the weather that I seriously doubt I will have the forum's Grand Opening before Christmas.

This virus-thing is really debilitating.
(Not Covid - in week 3 now.)

Amazingly, I've done several hundred slides for the upcoming Percentages & Probabilities 2022 book and webinar. Not sure when I will be able to actually start recording them.

As for the forum, I've literally made zero progress on what needs to be done. Sure hope I can put this behind me by next week.

I like that!

Not easily available.

What are NEXT OUT WINNERS?

Dave do I become one of those Founding Members yet? Or what do I have to do to be on the list? — Conley

Of course.

When I started betting to make a living I became wary of making changes as there is a fine line between winning and losing. — Tony Kofalt

:up: :up: :up:


OH, SING IT BROTHER K!!!

Winning can be so very fragile.

I like longshot closers in a chaos race for my contrarian urges. — RanchWest

How do you determine that a race is chaotic?