Ranch-
Interesting thought. For myself I look for opportunities when a favorite looks vulnerable. For example, I typically post a vulnerable fav at Aqu or Bel every day. The vulnerable favs are winning at about 24.5%. But when they lose the average win price on the winner of the race exceeds10-1. I see these races as a good place to look for price horses. But I do use standard handicapping in this process.

I also remember reading an article regarding longshot horses. I always meant to followup with some research but never did. The premise was to build a list of positive handicapping factors. The factors could span any part of handicapping, trainer, pace, speed figures etc. The idea was to count the number of 'positive' factors each horse accumulated and bet well priced horses that earned a certain number of them. I will go back and do some research to find that article.

Thanks Conley

Latest version up and running on my PC. Thanks again Steven. It will be interesting to monitor this puppy in January

Wow- at first glance very thorough trip notes. I will spend some time evaluating them. I don't play Cal tracks normally but I am giving the early P5 at SA a shot on Sunday with NY closed and a likely over bet firster in race 4. I have to believe Q B One will be over bet as the first foal of Beholder to make the races.

IMO, the current scratch list is an example of incomplete information that can be misleading. For example a vet scratch. What was the reason for the vet scratch? Was the horse lame/sore during a pre race exam? This could be significant. Or did the trainer not like the race and tell the vet the horse didn't eat up and shouldn't run. Or does the horse have a fever of sorts?
While it may not be possible to categorize all the different scenarios an explanation such as sick or lame would help us evaluate the next entry. Sometimes incomplete info can be misleading.

Lol- too funny Steven. Thank you for your work here!!! I seem to find a bug or two in my selections every day.

Tom- thank you for your work as well. After all it's named Tom's Ultimate Odds Line

Thanks Steven for your great work. Since this program is about 'odds lines' I'd suggest some sort of a trainer stat in place of the blank class category. Trainers do impact the odds line and who wins the race. I'll wait for some feedback from Tom, Ranch and William as well. They always present good ideas

Thank you Tom and Steven!! great work and thank you for sharing.

Conley, thank you for your fine work!! Clearly looks like you want to focus on horses on or near the lead (unless I'm misreading something). To me a real bias is underway.
Also something that may provide more power is to consider using ranks for some of the factors. For example is a 113.2 BPP the highest ranked BPP in the first race? I believe a rank would provide a clearer picture for EP and LP factors as well.
Thanks again

Thank you

Hey Steven,
I've been looking at your data and have a question. I do see the general flow but there are 3 rows titled 1,4 and 7. Could you please explain at your convenience what each row represents? That will help me understand your sheets fully. Thanks

I second that thank you!!! Great stuff Steven!!

I believe Ranch is saying that a race from which competitors came back to win their next is likely a stronger race than one where no competitors won their next start. Some refer to this as a key race.

At first glance some good stuff there Steven. It will be cool to see how these hold up after a fe weeks

Hope you feel better Dave

Yes I believe it did. I'm still reviewing the PPs but thank you

I don't believe I've ever been at the site. Would you consider posting a few selections here to help me understand your methodology? If not, I certainly understand that. Thanks

Hi Ranch, I believe there is a website, paceandcap.com where the Sartin methodology is discussed. You may find it useful

I have used a computer in varying degrees to aid my handicapping. In the mid 1980's I used the PC to download handicapping aides along with the printed DRF. In the early 1990's I still used a racing form or racing times but also handicapped every race with ThoroBrainX. After ThoroBrainX left the market When HSH became available I used it in conjunction with the printed form. I found myself relying more on my analysis from the printed form.
When I started betting to make a living I became wary of making changes as there is a fine line between winning and losing. My primary tool remains the DRF (formulator) which allows me to print a customized form, watch replays, maintain trip notes and quickly review result charts. When Dave introduces a new AI product I believe I will become much more PC dependant