Thanks William!! Appreciate your feedback. Very interesting suggestion and also very logical. Keep you posted as I give this one some thought.

Thanks for sharing Dave. It's amazing that HSH is capable of so much more than meets the eye. I am so guilty of not taking advantage of these features.

Thought provoking Dave. I seem to recall you describing 'Whales' going through a similar process each year.

Yea- I thought she ran the best race today. I think the good and bad breaks even out over time.

Happy Birthday Dave!!

Ranch,
On Friday there is a similar horse in race 6 at Aqu. I projected a lot of progress for #5, East Coast Girl. He exits a pretty fast debut where the runnerup returned to win a $500k stake. In fact my raw projections give him a 4 lengths edge.

• Lone speed unless a first time starter shows speed.
• Smart class drop.
• Adds lasix
• Adds blinkers

There are a number of similarities to Basic Truth. He's an 'A' play, but probably not a single. The decision to single often comes down a gut feeling.

Hey Ranch, of course you can ask.
First let me say that singling a race in a P5 sequence is not unusual for me. I'm typically looking for a race where my top selection has a strong projected number compared to the field and a fair M/L. In this case I projected Basic Truth to win by 2+ lengths while improving about 9 lengths off his debut. The major factors I used were:

• Improved speed
• Class drop
• Sire average winning distance
• Positive jockey switch

I expect to lose more bets than I cash. While I don't enjoy losing bets that's simply reality. I employ some money management techniques and try to have confidence in my plan.
This was not an especially good day as the P5's returned less than I expected. But I trust that it will all work out in the end. Please feel free to ask if i didn't answer your question.

Yea as I mentioned in a previous post, I was fortunate enough to make the winner an A horse coming off that long rest. I just couldn't get by the strength of her last race

Jack- Excellent call on Gasoline!!! Congrats

Good luck Ranch!!

Ranch, you continue to make logical and solid points! Tha's why I love this game. There are often many ways to project a race.
I can't disagree with your analysis. I tend to be more forgiving with horses on the bottom. I estimate that his win possibility is around 30%, meaning I expect he would lose this race 7 of 10 times. All things considered I still feel a value P5 is available.
In Race 8 I thought that maybe we could beat the most logical horses in the 8 and 9. I made them B's. I ended up with the 3 and 7 as A's with one unknown in the 5 horse. The 5's last race was in 2021 but it was a tough event. 5 next winners including 2 horses that went on to win restricted stakes. I decided to add her back in as an A.
Thanks so much for you input Ranch. I always read your posts closely and give them a lot of consideration.

Thanks William! I do agree that there are some tricky races on this card. I did not handicap your selections on top BUT they will be on my tickets as B plays. My feeling is that 'open' races can pave the way to well paying horizontals.
I plan to single the 4th in both P5's. I'm betting that Basic Truth will find himself on the lead turning for home for the first time. 'Truth' may be forced to stalk the 7 early. Good luck if you watch Aqu!

Thank you Dave! I appreciate the feedback and good wishes

Thank you William!! I feel as if I'm heading in the right direction.

Holiday Holidays team Schwartz

Lol- I've witnessed similar events. Trainers are not reliable when touting their horses.

Happy Holidays to all as well!!

I watched Dave's video several times when it was released. My curiosity was peaked. If I was a WPS player I would have looked hard to incorporate it into my toolbox. Seeing as I play mostly P4 and P5's I could not find a way to utilize it.

Ranch, you ask some interesting and thoughtful questions. For me, I find myself involved in a lot of races every day. I play horizontals, primarily P4 and P5's. As a rule, there are usually 1-3 races in each sequence where I have a strong opinion for or against a horse. That leaves 2-3 races on each wager where I don't have a strong opinion. Many of those races include low percentage riders and trainers. I do my best to evaluate each of those races and build tickets that make sense to me. Sometime my instincts are wrong. I manage these situations by varying the size of each bet. I may have some 50 cent P5's using fringe horses while my stronger opinions may be in $3, $5 or $10 denominations.
If I was a WPS player it would be prudent to pass the race but I rarely pass a horizontal sequence due to a race or two.

William- Thanks. love the topic!! This type of math revs me up. I recall taking my SAT's back in the late 70's and I was positive I scored a perfect 800. As it turns out, I answered one problem incorrectly and it was this Monty Hall problem. It's also featured in one of my favorite movies, 21.
But I have never been able to convince myself to incorporate it into my handicapping. Dave wrote a compelling article on this subject some time ago.