It appears that we may have another strong pace advantage opportunity in the Toboggan at Aqu on Saturday. Pirate Rick in race 7, may clear this field on the turn and maintain his advantage. Looks like my single in all late horizontal plays. Any feeling on this race are appreciated!

Thank you again Jack!!

Great analysis Jack! I really enjoy this type of race because of the randomness. Finding improvement is the key for me.

It appears that Jack believes Garth Road has a chance to outsprint East Coast Girl in the last tomorrow. I expect East Coast to be 2 lengths in front by the turn. Will be interesting to see how the race plays out! This is what is great about handicapping.

1-27 Race 8 Aqu. I bit into East Coast Girl last time assuming she would make a clear lead. Well a toss of his head and solid bump at the gate left him trailing after a few strides. Tomorrow I believe he will makes amends as the lone speed. I expect the 1 horse, Tunnel Vision, to attract tote play leaving East Coast Girl a fair 9-5 at post time. He will definitely be a P5/P4 single tomorrow.

Thanks Jack!!!

Thanks so much guys!! Some very interesting things to look in to. The depth of handicapping on this board amazes me. Pace is definitely a weakness in my game and has contributed to some 'dry' streaks. It may take me a few days to digest your suggestions while playing at the same time.
Jack, your work is impressive!
Tom thanks for your suggestions. Very logical approaches.
Ranch thank you as well.

Thanks William!! Appreciate your feedback. Very interesting suggestion and also very logical. Keep you posted as I give this one some thought.

Well done Conley!!

Thanks for sharing Dave. It's amazing that HSH is capable of so much more than meets the eye. I am so guilty of not taking advantage of these features.

Thought provoking Dave. I seem to recall you describing 'Whales' going through a similar process each year.

Yea- I thought she ran the best race today. I think the good and bad breaks even out over time.

Happy Birthday Dave!!

Ranch,
On Friday there is a similar horse in race 6 at Aqu. I projected a lot of progress for #5, East Coast Girl. He exits a pretty fast debut where the runnerup returned to win a $500k stake. In fact my raw projections give him a 4 lengths edge.

• Lone speed unless a first time starter shows speed.
• Smart class drop.
• Adds lasix
• Adds blinkers

There are a number of similarities to Basic Truth. He's an 'A' play, but probably not a single. The decision to single often comes down a gut feeling.

Hey Ranch, of course you can ask.
First let me say that singling a race in a P5 sequence is not unusual for me. I'm typically looking for a race where my top selection has a strong projected number compared to the field and a fair M/L. In this case I projected Basic Truth to win by 2+ lengths while improving about 9 lengths off his debut. The major factors I used were:

• Improved speed
• Class drop
• Sire average winning distance
• Positive jockey switch

I expect to lose more bets than I cash. While I don't enjoy losing bets that's simply reality. I employ some money management techniques and try to have confidence in my plan.
This was not an especially good day as the P5's returned less than I expected. But I trust that it will all work out in the end. Please feel free to ask if i didn't answer your question.

Yea as I mentioned in a previous post, I was fortunate enough to make the winner an A horse coming off that long rest. I just couldn't get by the strength of her last race

Jack- Excellent call on Gasoline!!! Congrats

Good luck Ranch!!

Ranch, you continue to make logical and solid points! Tha's why I love this game. There are often many ways to project a race.
I can't disagree with your analysis. I tend to be more forgiving with horses on the bottom. I estimate that his win possibility is around 30%, meaning I expect he would lose this race 7 of 10 times. All things considered I still feel a value P5 is available.
In Race 8 I thought that maybe we could beat the most logical horses in the 8 and 9. I made them B's. I ended up with the 3 and 7 as A's with one unknown in the 5 horse. The 5's last race was in 2021 but it was a tough event. 5 next winners including 2 horses that went on to win restricted stakes. I decided to add her back in as an A.
Thanks so much for you input Ranch. I always read your posts closely and give them a lot of consideration.

Thanks William! I do agree that there are some tricky races on this card. I did not handicap your selections on top BUT they will be on my tickets as B plays. My feeling is that 'open' races can pave the way to well paying horizontals.
I plan to single the 4th in both P5's. I'm betting that Basic Truth will find himself on the lead turning for home for the first time. 'Truth' may be forced to stalk the 7 early. Good luck if you watch Aqu!