Tom, thanks again for your thorough explanation. I've followed your posts on this and other forums and it's clear that you have a lot to offer. I really appreciate your time. Here are my thoughts on your suggestions!!

Many E horses can run as EP horses if they need to. Be very cautious labeling one a need-t-lead.
Good observation. I will admit that speed duels do not always develop when I expect them to. This is something to keep in mind!

An EP horse drawn inside may be forced to send early.
I 100% buy into this statement. We can find examples of this at every track, every day!

An E horse drawn outside the other early speed may well sit off the pace.
Interesting observation, one supported regularily by Richard Migliore on America's Day At The Races. I really trust the Mig's analysis.

When 2 E horses are side by side,, re-examine the QSPs. An E4 may well show moe early speed than expected and challemge or even out-pace an E6 . QSPs, if limited to the lat 3 lines are as much form as speed. The E4 might well be an E7 or E8 when in good form. I use Dave's definition of an improving horse as good reason to look at back-speed.
I have to research this one a little more. I use a lot of Dave's processes in my handicapping and wagering but I haven't found his definition of an improving horse yet. But your point is well made.

Dave's New Pace idea for rating early is tedious by hand, but excellent in practice.
I'm going to have to 'brush the dust' off my copy of New Pace. I have to admit I got a little sidetracked when listening to it and never really evaluated it fairly. Thanks Tom

The Rs/Pos method by Jim Crammer iis excellent and structureenough to take out a lot of indecision.Much detailed iFREE nformation at HDW.
I am familiar with RS/POS as I used the ThoroManager product during a brief stint as a jockey agent. What I found interesting is that RS/POS used the fastest first quarter time. The raw time was used with no adjustment for track or variant. The results were surprising accurate. For some reason I have never put enough time into pace evaluation in the past.

If you use BRIS or have access to pace figuures, try adding the QSPs to the E1 or the E2 pace rating. I use B2L4 pace figs at E1.
I have no real experience with current BRIS products. I occasionally download a card and print it for a friend of mine, but I have not looked at their pace numbers. Maybe I'll download a card and look at the pace numbers. As PP's I prefer DRF Formulator. On a similar note, do you have any comments or experience with TimeFormUs or EquineEdge. Both products tout accurate pace numbers. CJ from TimeForm appears to be a stand up guy. I've heard him on many podcasts and he certainly does his homework.

If you play NYRA, use the Track Trends column for rail bias, very good information
I love and use track trends. I think I mentioned it in another post on this board. I supplement my own bias notes for NY with Andy's thoughts on track trends.

Tom, your feedback is much appreciated and I will provide updates as I progress. Thanks again

Thanks Jack. Sometimes balloons deflate quickly. lol I was disappointed in the final odds on Now Showing @ 5-2. It was interesting that Liam's Champ and Chad's FTS (the winner) both worked on 4f on 1-22. I don't know if they worked in tandem but the FTS worked 3/5 quicker than Liam's Champ. I may have downplayed that fact in my analysis.

On 1-29 I do 'like' a horse in race 5 at Aqu. In this race I can key my selection in both P5's. I expect Now Showing to run a much-improved race.
In her 11-20 debut all starters (excpet Now Showing) have already run back. 7 of the 8 starters improved their Beyers in the subsequent start with several improving significantly. Only the winner did not post an improved Beyer but finished 2nd in a $100k Stake race.
I realize.that there is a Pletcher debut horse as well as 2 horses from Chad Brown in this heat. Hopefully they will sweeten the potential return on Now Showing.
Good luck to all.

Good observations!! But yes I did get sucked in by this one. I ended up singling Pirate in a bad call by myself. I typically try to avoid horses going for 4 or 5 consecutive wins. One thing for sure in this business, you can't win them all.
The feedback this team provides is excellent and should help make us all better players.

Good rule that has been in place in many states for several years. In practice, many horsemen have been less than satisfied with the outcomes due to different interpretations by various vets. Specifically, horsemen often struggle with a vets opinion of soreness or lameness. Hell often times vets can't even agree on it.
Hopefully this rule becomes more acceptable to horsemen as it is good for all involved in the buiness

It appears that we may have another strong pace advantage opportunity in the Toboggan at Aqu on Saturday. Pirate Rick in race 7, may clear this field on the turn and maintain his advantage. Looks like my single in all late horizontal plays. Any feeling on this race are appreciated!

Thank you again Jack!!

Great analysis Jack! I really enjoy this type of race because of the randomness. Finding improvement is the key for me.

It appears that Jack believes Garth Road has a chance to outsprint East Coast Girl in the last tomorrow. I expect East Coast to be 2 lengths in front by the turn. Will be interesting to see how the race plays out! This is what is great about handicapping.

1-27 Race 8 Aqu. I bit into East Coast Girl last time assuming she would make a clear lead. Well a toss of his head and solid bump at the gate left him trailing after a few strides. Tomorrow I believe he will makes amends as the lone speed. I expect the 1 horse, Tunnel Vision, to attract tote play leaving East Coast Girl a fair 9-5 at post time. He will definitely be a P5/P4 single tomorrow.

Thanks Jack!!!

Thanks so much guys!! Some very interesting things to look in to. The depth of handicapping on this board amazes me. Pace is definitely a weakness in my game and has contributed to some 'dry' streaks. It may take me a few days to digest your suggestions while playing at the same time.
Jack, your work is impressive!
Tom thanks for your suggestions. Very logical approaches.
Ranch thank you as well.

Thanks William!! Appreciate your feedback. Very interesting suggestion and also very logical. Keep you posted as I give this one some thought.

Well done Conley!!

Thanks for sharing Dave. It's amazing that HSH is capable of so much more than meets the eye. I am so guilty of not taking advantage of these features.

Thought provoking Dave. I seem to recall you describing 'Whales' going through a similar process each year.

Yea- I thought she ran the best race today. I think the good and bad breaks even out over time.

Happy Birthday Dave!!

Ranch,
On Friday there is a similar horse in race 6 at Aqu. I projected a lot of progress for #5, East Coast Girl. He exits a pretty fast debut where the runnerup returned to win a $500k stake. In fact my raw projections give him a 4 lengths edge.

• Lone speed unless a first time starter shows speed.
• Smart class drop.
• Adds lasix
• Adds blinkers

There are a number of similarities to Basic Truth. He's an 'A' play, but probably not a single. The decision to single often comes down a gut feeling.

Hey Ranch, of course you can ask.
First let me say that singling a race in a P5 sequence is not unusual for me. I'm typically looking for a race where my top selection has a strong projected number compared to the field and a fair M/L. In this case I projected Basic Truth to win by 2+ lengths while improving about 9 lengths off his debut. The major factors I used were:

• Improved speed
• Class drop
• Sire average winning distance
• Positive jockey switch

I expect to lose more bets than I cash. While I don't enjoy losing bets that's simply reality. I employ some money management techniques and try to have confidence in my plan.
This was not an especially good day as the P5's returned less than I expected. But I trust that it will all work out in the end. Please feel free to ask if i didn't answer your question.