Good observations!! But yes I did get sucked in by this one. I ended up singling Pirate in a bad call by myself. I typically try to avoid horses going for 4 or 5 consecutive wins. One thing for sure in this business, you can't win them all.
The feedback this team provides is excellent and should help make us all better players.

Good rule that has been in place in many states for several years. In practice, many horsemen have been less than satisfied with the outcomes due to different interpretations by various vets. Specifically, horsemen often struggle with a vets opinion of soreness or lameness. Hell often times vets can't even agree on it.
Hopefully this rule becomes more acceptable to horsemen as it is good for all involved in the buiness

It appears that we may have another strong pace advantage opportunity in the Toboggan at Aqu on Saturday. Pirate Rick in race 7, may clear this field on the turn and maintain his advantage. Looks like my single in all late horizontal plays. Any feeling on this race are appreciated!

Thank you again Jack!!

Great analysis Jack! I really enjoy this type of race because of the randomness. Finding improvement is the key for me.

It appears that Jack believes Garth Road has a chance to outsprint East Coast Girl in the last tomorrow. I expect East Coast to be 2 lengths in front by the turn. Will be interesting to see how the race plays out! This is what is great about handicapping.

1-27 Race 8 Aqu. I bit into East Coast Girl last time assuming she would make a clear lead. Well a toss of his head and solid bump at the gate left him trailing after a few strides. Tomorrow I believe he will makes amends as the lone speed. I expect the 1 horse, Tunnel Vision, to attract tote play leaving East Coast Girl a fair 9-5 at post time. He will definitely be a P5/P4 single tomorrow.

Thanks Jack!!!

Thanks so much guys!! Some very interesting things to look in to. The depth of handicapping on this board amazes me. Pace is definitely a weakness in my game and has contributed to some 'dry' streaks. It may take me a few days to digest your suggestions while playing at the same time.
Jack, your work is impressive!
Tom thanks for your suggestions. Very logical approaches.
Ranch thank you as well.

Thanks William!! Appreciate your feedback. Very interesting suggestion and also very logical. Keep you posted as I give this one some thought.

Well done Conley!!

Thanks for sharing Dave. It's amazing that HSH is capable of so much more than meets the eye. I am so guilty of not taking advantage of these features.

Thought provoking Dave. I seem to recall you describing 'Whales' going through a similar process each year.

Yea- I thought she ran the best race today. I think the good and bad breaks even out over time.

Happy Birthday Dave!!

Ranch,
On Friday there is a similar horse in race 6 at Aqu. I projected a lot of progress for #5, East Coast Girl. He exits a pretty fast debut where the runnerup returned to win a $500k stake. In fact my raw projections give him a 4 lengths edge.

• Lone speed unless a first time starter shows speed.
• Smart class drop.
• Adds lasix
• Adds blinkers

There are a number of similarities to Basic Truth. He's an 'A' play, but probably not a single. The decision to single often comes down a gut feeling.

Hey Ranch, of course you can ask.
First let me say that singling a race in a P5 sequence is not unusual for me. I'm typically looking for a race where my top selection has a strong projected number compared to the field and a fair M/L. In this case I projected Basic Truth to win by 2+ lengths while improving about 9 lengths off his debut. The major factors I used were:

• Improved speed
• Class drop
• Sire average winning distance
• Positive jockey switch

I expect to lose more bets than I cash. While I don't enjoy losing bets that's simply reality. I employ some money management techniques and try to have confidence in my plan.
This was not an especially good day as the P5's returned less than I expected. But I trust that it will all work out in the end. Please feel free to ask if i didn't answer your question.

Yea as I mentioned in a previous post, I was fortunate enough to make the winner an A horse coming off that long rest. I just couldn't get by the strength of her last race

Jack- Excellent call on Gasoline!!! Congrats

Good luck Ranch!!