Thank you William!! I feel as if I'm heading in the right direction.

Holiday Holidays team Schwartz

Lol- I've witnessed similar events. Trainers are not reliable when touting their horses.

Happy Holidays to all as well!!

I watched Dave's video several times when it was released. My curiosity was peaked. If I was a WPS player I would have looked hard to incorporate it into my toolbox. Seeing as I play mostly P4 and P5's I could not find a way to utilize it.

Ranch, you ask some interesting and thoughtful questions. For me, I find myself involved in a lot of races every day. I play horizontals, primarily P4 and P5's. As a rule, there are usually 1-3 races in each sequence where I have a strong opinion for or against a horse. That leaves 2-3 races on each wager where I don't have a strong opinion. Many of those races include low percentage riders and trainers. I do my best to evaluate each of those races and build tickets that make sense to me. Sometime my instincts are wrong. I manage these situations by varying the size of each bet. I may have some 50 cent P5's using fringe horses while my stronger opinions may be in $3, $5 or $10 denominations.
If I was a WPS player it would be prudent to pass the race but I rarely pass a horizontal sequence due to a race or two.

William- Thanks. love the topic!! This type of math revs me up. I recall taking my SAT's back in the late 70's and I was positive I scored a perfect 800. As it turns out, I answered one problem incorrectly and it was this Monty Hall problem. It's also featured in one of my favorite movies, 21.
But I have never been able to convince myself to incorporate it into my handicapping. Dave wrote a compelling article on this subject some time ago.

Hey Mark- thanks for the info. I honestly didn't realize this option was available in the surface. When I came across ReMarkable it was being advertised as a paperless alternative that could replicate paper writing.
The entry point for ReMarkable is probably less expensive that the surface. Not sure about screen size and other functions. I will look into the surface and thank you for your help!!

Hi Conley-
In ThoroBrain I found the AI (neural nets) most helpful in separating contenders. The user built the information the neural nets processed via pace line selections which included paceline 'smoothing'. The neural nets did an outstanding job of evaluating the data and presenting the probabilities for each contender.
There were other AI products on the market at that time. I can't recall the names of the products but they all seemed to fade away.

Yes. I am interested to see what AI can add to handicapping. In the 90's I was pleasantly surprised to see the results Dave's Neuro Nets yielded in ThoroBrain. Unfortunately, the product line moved in a different direction. I'd love to have another opportunity to see what AI can add to our handicapping tools

As someone who plays primarily horizontal bets, I spent a fair amount of time considering these options. In the end, for me, the horizontal wagers proved to be the right way to wager. Here are the primary factors:
1) The takeout is reduced for horizontal wagers.
2) There were more inefficiencies in the P3-4-5 pools than the win pools.
3) M/L choices (after the first leg of P3,4,5) were slightly overused.
4) I seldom found myself looking to change wagers after submitting my initial tickets.
My conclusions resulted from research conducted around 2010-2013. I have honestly not conducted any research since that time, But I have not encountered any reasons to make a change.

Good post Tom. I just checked my library and Improving and Declining must be the only Dave product I didn't purchase. I try to read everything Dave publishes as there are always hidden gems to be found. I hope this thread stays alive as I'd love to hear more.

I play NY almost exclusively. I try to catch Talking Horses every day. I feel that the show offers valuable opinions from handicappers that focus on the circuit. While I enjoy all the personalities (Andy, Anthony, Acasio, Maggie and even Greg) I find Andy's analysis most beneficial. He takes a stand and lives or dies by it.
There is an interesting podcast on youtube hosted by ex jockey Kali Francois. Andy Serling is the guest and Andy fully describes his daily handicapping routine. I felt that Kali overmanaged the conversation a bit but it was still a good watch!!
If I was going to recommend ideas for a handicapping show I would use Talking Horses to build my foundation.

Sounds great Ranch. Thanks for helping to organize this. Where will we post selections?

Ranch- I have never seen a rule prohibiting this practice. I have seen trainers requiring some sorts of kickbacks from riders but nothing like this story. Illegal no- unethical yes

Yes sir Rick. I've known generous owners that stake members of the team. And it is common for jock agents/ jocks to bring treats to the barn after a win. Th e bigger the purse the bigger the treats.

You guys hit the nail on the head! Neither horse was able be a factor in the lane. I am surprised that Musical America didnt fight for the lead. Not that I expected a win I just thought he would make a better account of himself in a soft race.

Thank you for walking us through your process Lawrence. Very clever use of combining some software to get strong results. Please keep us updated.

Thank you guys! much appreciated

Hey Rick- Just for clarification, did you mean less than 15 speed points in the race? Thanks in advance for the clarification.