Is bias real? Ranch- seriously well thought out group of questions. Thank you!! Here are a few thoughts from my perspective.
But in studies of topics other than bias, we usually talk in terms of a very minimum of 30 wins before we consider there to be any trend. So, why do we look at such a small sample of bias when that is contrary to our normal habits?
By definition, bias is a disproportionate weight in favor of or against something. I suppose that if a bias held up over a larger sample size it would become the norm and lose much of the value it may offer. That being said, I view horse racing as a cyclical game and I'm always looking for 'short term' trends that may offer value. For me a handful of races may be more than enough.
I utilize a similar mindset when betting 'hot' trainers. I'm looking for trainers that win 2 or 3 of their last 4 or 5 races, not 12 of their last 30. My belief is that value is more prevalent in short term trends