Thanks Ranch

I was reading over this thread and recalled a discussion I had a with friend regarding chaos races. My friend noticed less predictable results when handicapping a race where entrants had not run to PAR. I remember doing a brief test about 10 years ago after our discussion. What I did was compare my projected figs to the race PAR. In my case it was the Beyer PAR. Some time has passed so I don't have the actual test data but I do recall seeing more unusual results in those races.
Has anyone conducted any similar tests? I have no idea why I didn't pursue this path other than I was very reluctant to make any changes to what I was doing at that time.
Ranch hoe has work on your chaos theory been working out?

Thanks for the feedback thus far. I love trying these pieces of the puzzle.

Bill- I like your thoughts on Valentinia Island. I placed her 3rd on my list behind Inkblot and Just A Nyquist. Feels like we see this race the same way. Good luck !!!

After reviewing the early odds line for the Belmont I decided to follow my first thoughts on the race and make WTP a single on my horizontal wagers. While it is the Belmont Stakes it is just another horse race and just another bet.

Can't disagree about Mo. Certainly had excuses in derby. His win 2 back was fantastic. I'd love to play against WTP at 2-1 but I can't construct a scenario where he will be easy to catch. Being a horizontal player, there are a couple of other strong favs in the mandatory payout P5 so I have to beat one or two of them. I do now imagine that I will be using a small spread in the Belmont.

Team please join in with any other suggestions!!

Dave, here are some suggestions to 'productize' the TicketMaker spreadsheet graciously shared by Jack Price.
Add options for vertical wagers such as the Trifecta and Superfecta. I not skilled in writing such tickets and I believe better specs could be obtained from users make these bets.
Provide an option to select the track, race number and date for each wager.
Provide a field for user to select the base bet for the series of wager, etc .20,.50, $1.00
Ability to select the type of wager, P3, P4, P5, P6, Tri or Super.
The TicketMaker could interface with a product to display each horses name and program number for each leg of the wager.
Provide a field to mark each entrant as an A, B or C selection. Horses not marked as A, B or C are considered as non-contenders and will not be included in any wager.
Based on the type of wager, the TicketMaster will display the wager broken into specific segments such as 4A, 3A1B, etc.
Here are recommended segments for each type of horizontal wager. Individual tickets will be displayed within each segment. The bet size for each individual wager will default as the base bet size but can be modified to a different size.
P3- 3A, 2A1B, 2A1c, 1A,2B, 1A2C, !A1B1C.
P4- 4A, 3A1B, 3A1C, 2A2B, 2A2C, 2A1B1C.
P5- 5A, 4A1B, 4A1C, 3A2B, 3A2C, 3A1B1c, 2A3B, 2A3C, 2A2B1C, 2A1B2C
P6- 6A, 5A1B, 5A1C, 4A2B, 4A2C, 4A1B1c, 3A3B, 3A3C, 3A2B1C, 3A1B2B
A switch will be available to turn off any segment so wagers for that segment will not be calculated or included in the price of the overall wager.
Make the final list of wagers 'printable' for clean entry into the users ADW.
Develop a hook into some major betting platform (NYBETS, 1stBet, TVG) to automate the placement of the bet.
Segments for tri's and super's need to be developed.
Not all of the recommendations need to be developed, such as a hook into individual ADW's, but are worth consideration for future upgrades.

At first blush, it appears that We The People may have another comfortable trip. I have some work to do on the race but I don't see a reason that I will be changing my mind

Dave I get some ideas out tonight> Thank you for your interest

After having a chance to look at the alternatives posted I once again want to thank everyone for their input. I bet primarily through NYRA Bets so I'm reluctant to venture into the DRF or 1st Bet options as they are linked to the betting sites. I really liked the home grown program presented by Jack!! I'm going to spend some time to see if fits into my play. I'm very happy with what I see so far. Thank you to Jack and all others!

Thank you so much guys. I will give these alternatives a good luck later this evening. I appreciate it very much

Great story Dave and how applicable to what we do.

Well done Steven! Thank you for sharing

Welcome aboard Ray. Great introduction!! Look forward to exchanging ideas

Thanks to all for your input. It's fascinating to me watch someone's analysis. Always seem to learn something. I apologize for the scratch. Dave your use of HSH is top notch! You are definitely one of the most prepared players I know.

You guys totally amaze me!!! Ranch you are so creative, Coley do all this work for every track by hand and Dave always looking for a way to make the process easier.
When it comes to negative factors, it seems to me that Pickmaster was used in HSH to identify negative factors some years ago. I don't recall the outcome but it felt like a worthwhile venture. Dave do you remember that effort?
Could there be an opportunity to report these items in a good news/bad news function?

Tom is a very intuitive player. I have no idea how he does at the windows but I have to believe he's a winner

Thanks Dave. I recall this or similar research from a few years ago. It's amazing how much solid information is forgotten when you resume your regular handicapping.

Off the turf races in NY today ran to form. Extremely low payouts.