Comments

  • Is there anything New?

    I can't say that I have any data to support that. When I come across a vulnerable favorite I have to make a decision, Do I ignore him on all my horizontal tickets or do I include him as a B level horse if I have strong opinions in other legs? Seldom do I believe a vulnerable fav can't win but it's that I think he will be overbet based on the way I see a race playing out. Sorry as I dont believe I had the answer you were looking for.
  • Is there anything New?
    There are some outstanding thoughts being exchanged here! Now this is what a handicapping forum is all about.
    I agree 100% that we have to be 'different' from the whales to uncover opportunities that they may miss. They play a highly sophisticated game that overcomes the take. And they are assisted by tools like batch wagering that most of us can't afford access to. So how do we compete?
    • Here are some ideas:
    • Make your game more artsy. Avoid commonly used paceline selection methods like 2 best of last 3. Instead, don't be afraid to select multiple pacelines, weigh them differently and perhaps factor in subtle changes to them.
    • Always project improvement or decline in a horses form. I'm not recommending wild swings but something different than the last performance.
    • Build and maintain something exclusive to yourself. Perhaps notes about prior races that are not widely available. Not just about the slow start that everyone else saw but maybe the pack position a runner found themselves in that is different than normal.
    • Focus on a few venues and become expects there. You will find nuggets of data that are not available to the general public.
    Any feedback is appreciated
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?

    Wow- I never saw CJ's performances before. Thanks.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?

    According to a quick internet search it is the same product. Good job Tom
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Not familiar with Equisim Ranch. I remember a sheet like product that a friend of mine used. If memory serves me correctly it was owned by Cary Fotius. It incorporated pace into the final numbers. It was named Equi 'something' lol
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Has anyone ever tried Thorograph? Can you offer any comments on the layout and the data presented? How do you deal with pace in the product? Just curious
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?

    Dave, I can't say that I do like the plot approach. I just presented it as an alternative to RanchWest topic here. The position of the squares and circles are based on numeric ratings. The product suite also presents the numeric data in a spreadsheet.
  • RS out of Preakness
    IMO- it's hard to criticize a trainer for opting to give a horse a little more rest between starts, especially if they fully intend to run him back in a few more weeks. I applaud having the guts to skip the Preakness when industry pressure exists.
    From a fans and Pimlico's perspective it would be great to have an opportunity for a Triple Crown winner.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Team,
    I did a little research and found this on the OpTixEQ website. It provides an alternative view of PP data.

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  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?

    Tom- I looked at something similar years ago in BRIS. I believe that when you edit a style you can select what to display on your PP's including some user defined fields. I honestly didn't give it a good effort as I didn't want to move away from the DRF PP's. If you have the PP Generator you can probably look it up.
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    I came across a product named OpTix which is to present an alternative to traditional handicapping. I took a brief peek at it once but never really spent time researching it. If I recall it plots the projected positions of all runners in a graph of sorts. Looked like an alternative to traditional PP's
  • What do you think of the traditional past performance model?
    Wow!! Great topic Ranch.
    You guys are so sophisticated and have developed some amazing aids. It's no coincidence that you all found your way to Dave. I'm especially impressed by the way you've incorporated colors into your PP's. By themselves they almost add an additional layer into the PP's. They could be used to quickly identify the best early, late and class factors in a race. And many others I'm sure. Helps to deal with the one horse at a time quandary.
    Let me say that I am a traditional PP guy. I print, markup and read the PP's just as my father did. I like a race to print on no more than 2-3 pages. I've accepted the traditional one horse at a time model. Some of my quirks may be positive and some I'm sure are limiting.
    Comments:
    Ranch:
    Ranch merging workout lines in the PP"s has always intrigued me. This can be done in Formulator and probably other products. However, I've found my 'vision' when reading the PP's is interrupted so to say. It's like my visual method of reading and absorbing the PP data is broken. I know I'm missing helpful data here but I can't seem to find a comfortable and concise way to get around it. Great use of colors!
    Jack:
    Very impressive Jack. You've rolled up the PP lines into a pretty concise summary. I like the way pace pressure is identified on the page. At first glance I like it a lot.
    Tom:
    Let me first say that Tom is one of my all- time favorite posters. His work on PA and here is so valuable and often times hilarious. Tom I love the way you took products available at no or very little cost and made them more useful! I've always known these features were there but I've been too stubborn to investigate them.
    This is a great topic. Hopefully I'll be able to contribute something to it.
  • What being a member here has done for me

    Steven, we are all works in progress. Don't get discouraged!!
  • Fellow Won the Derby Trifecta with ALL button - Does that count?
    Not the only story I heard like that today. Although I couldn't see the ticket well enough to determine exactly was bet I was made aware of 2 friends the keyed Zandon and Epicenter on the board wheeling the balance of the field in the first 3 holes. They made nice scores and I can't knock them. Well done.
  • The Work Begins
    The one positive aspect to 'big race days' at the track is large betting pools. With a little creativity and a lot of luck sizeable P5's loom. The all stakes P5 at CD this year includes race 8 thru 12. I'm looking at 2 potential singles (Race 8 and 10) and then spread in the remaining races hoping for some value.
    In race 8 I will try to beat Just One Time who is bred and still partially owned by some friends of mine. I've watched her train many times and she is the real deal. But she is a bit fractious near the gate and that may bite her one of these races. She will probably start with a blanket in the gate.
    I'm getting good vibes from Bell's The One who figures to go post at odds of 4-1, making her a good single.
    In race 10- Jackie's Warrior will prove difficult to catch. His main rivals will need help from someone to soften him up and that scenario does not look likely. Jackie is the probable favorite but we only need one decent winner to sweeten the ticket
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    BTW, HSH does have built in Rag-style numbers.
    Do you like those?
    Dave Schwartz

    I've always felt that the precision in the Thorograph numbers was amazing. I'm comfortable that the adjustments made to the numbers (wide trips, weight on/off, wind) were appropriate and added value. With a little practice, the presentation of the figs in graphs was good for my eye. I felt I could see both obvious and subtle improvements and regressions in a horses form. Key distinction is that I compared a horses recent form with his past form to determine where they may be in their form cycle.
    I don't recall reviewing SLT in HSH so a comparison is difficult. I'm not sure what 'number' is used to build the HSH sheets. Could you please add a little detail for me?
    I'll address the paceline process soon but right now I'm preparing for Belmont
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods


    Experience does help. But I'd have to say that my experience with Thorograph played a big part. Especially the concepts around form cycles
  • What being a member here has done for me
    Ranch- thank you for sharing your experience. I have had a similar relationship with Dave for 30 years. He's sharp and always willing to help and share. I have a feeling that 30 years from now I'll be saying the same things about you!!
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods

    It can be done through HSH. I did it using ThoroBrain in the past. It's a pretty subjective process for me right now.