Good explanation Conley!!

Ranch- regarding my post about leveraging the vulnerable favs here is why I decided to include Ocean Deep on my P5 tickets.
1) I felt I had 2 races (5&6) with pretty vulnerable favs.
2) I felt I had 2 races (7&8) which I had narrowed down to 2 horses.

Ocean Deep did not offer very attractive form. I was leaving both top choices off my ticket in this race so I decided to spread using 4 horses. Ocean Deep and Top Effort both exited the same last race with Top Effort beating Ocean Deep by 2 1/4 lengths. I had noted the track on Dec 30 as one that heavily favored horses on or near the early lead. I felt that Ocean Deep may have been compromised by the track on Dec 30 and may have been good enough to finish with a length or so of Top Effort that day. I was also intrigued by the sudden improvement for a lifetime best sprint on 12-11 with todays rider in the saddle.
Ocean Deep had plenty of negatives but I felt he had a right to improve at big odds.
There was nothing scientific about using him. Just a race that I felt lent itself to a pricy winner. I've lost plenty of races and I'm not afraid to lose a bet. I just hope that in the long run I win enough of them.

Ranch, a real life example of how beating a vulnerable fav can stack the odds in your favor. Today I post 2 vulnerable favs at Aqu. Both favs lost and the winners of those races paid $10.60 and $60.50. Neither winner looked great on form but were reachable if you looked deep into their form. If you delved 3-5 horses deep in horizontals on the races some nifty gimmicks were available

I believe it's important to recognize that most longshots have plenty of negative factors in their form (or they wouldn't be longshots). We have to look past those negatives and search for the positive factors. Look for a reason(s) that the horse 'could' win. This type of horse should offer some value so I would make sure the odds justify investing.

Ranch-
Interesting thought. For myself I look for opportunities when a favorite looks vulnerable. For example, I typically post a vulnerable fav at Aqu or Bel every day. The vulnerable favs are winning at about 24.5%. But when they lose the average win price on the winner of the race exceeds10-1. I see these races as a good place to look for price horses. But I do use standard handicapping in this process.

I also remember reading an article regarding longshot horses. I always meant to followup with some research but never did. The premise was to build a list of positive handicapping factors. The factors could span any part of handicapping, trainer, pace, speed figures etc. The idea was to count the number of 'positive' factors each horse accumulated and bet well priced horses that earned a certain number of them. I will go back and do some research to find that article.

Thanks Conley

Latest version up and running on my PC. Thanks again Steven. It will be interesting to monitor this puppy in January

Wow- at first glance very thorough trip notes. I will spend some time evaluating them. I don't play Cal tracks normally but I am giving the early P5 at SA a shot on Sunday with NY closed and a likely over bet firster in race 4. I have to believe Q B One will be over bet as the first foal of Beholder to make the races.

IMO, the current scratch list is an example of incomplete information that can be misleading. For example a vet scratch. What was the reason for the vet scratch? Was the horse lame/sore during a pre race exam? This could be significant. Or did the trainer not like the race and tell the vet the horse didn't eat up and shouldn't run. Or does the horse have a fever of sorts?
While it may not be possible to categorize all the different scenarios an explanation such as sick or lame would help us evaluate the next entry. Sometimes incomplete info can be misleading.

Lol- too funny Steven. Thank you for your work here!!! I seem to find a bug or two in my selections every day.

Tom- thank you for your work as well. After all it's named Tom's Ultimate Odds Line

Thanks Steven for your great work. Since this program is about 'odds lines' I'd suggest some sort of a trainer stat in place of the blank class category. Trainers do impact the odds line and who wins the race. I'll wait for some feedback from Tom, Ranch and William as well. They always present good ideas

Thank you Tom and Steven!! great work and thank you for sharing.

Thank you

Hey Steven,
I've been looking at your data and have a question. I do see the general flow but there are 3 rows titled 1,4 and 7. Could you please explain at your convenience what each row represents? That will help me understand your sheets fully. Thanks

I second that thank you!!! Great stuff Steven!!

I believe Ranch is saying that a race from which competitors came back to win their next is likely a stronger race than one where no competitors won their next start. Some refer to this as a key race.

At first glance some good stuff there Steven. It will be cool to see how these hold up after a fe weeks

Hope you feel better Dave

Yes I believe it did. I'm still reviewing the PPs but thank you