Tough to resist a discussion regarding a race from Aqu. Ranch, you always present some very intriguing ideas, From my perspective, I handicapped this race as anything BUT chaotic. In 3yo races for runners with a limited number of starts I always look for horses that ready to explode or make sudden improvement. In his last race State Planning showed one of my favorite betting angles. The running line for his 2-11 race, he laid closer to the leader in both position and beaten lengths at all calls than his prior running line. To me this is a sign of better things to come. I made him a strong single and he did come through at only 2-1.
When I handicapped him today I was afraid his last race was all he had right now and expected his progress to level out a bit. To me Pineapple Man looked like an improving horse who could control the pace. I made a strong play despite his low price. I singled him in the P5's. To be fair, I did not expect his odds to be as low as even money.
What I saw as a lone speed race you saw as chaotic. I will definitely analyze your analysis here to see how I can improve. Great job

Great discussion!!! I attended the session last evening and it was very thought provoking.
I recall speaking to HDW regarding another product and I was led to believe that the PSR rating is actually a projection of what each horse is expected to run today. Speed/pace, class, form, jockey and trainer were among the list of factors used to construct the rating.

That is quite a story Ranch- lol. I too have heard some stories from La that sound crazy. But I would not be shocked if something similar happened years ago.
I would find it difficult to believe that story happening today. Too many ppl involved and a lot more scrutiny, especially from the public perspective.
Whether true or not those old stories bring a smile to my face.

There were 2 men involved. Each spent less than two years in prison. They were ruled off as undesirable so they never returned to the track.

Dave, thanks for posting the article!! I look forward to reading the balance when it is available.
I am fortunate to be 'plugged in' to this business that I love so much. Virtually all of my friends, the best man in my wedding, are all either riders, trainers or handicappers. While I truly believe our game is MUCH more honest than many fans do I can't deny that some level of 'cheating' does exist. About 20 years ago I watched a similar Trifecta scam occur right in front of my eyes. I sat and watched races with much of the money behind the scam and didn't realize it was happening. It all sunk in when several of my friends spent time in jail.
In todays world it has become more difficult to pull off these types of scams. Analysis is conducted on strange wagering patterns that my occur while the consequences for those involved have become much more onerous.
I'm confident enough that these types of scams do not exist that I wager my money every day. If I felt cheating was occurring my money would stay in my pocket.

Great responses!! Ranch you always provide a lot of food for thought. Jim and Conley, thank you for the feedback as well. Some good ideas out there!!
One thing I didn't mention in my prior text is that I give more value to 'short term' trends. I can do this more effectively by limiting my play to 1 circuit. I love situations where a trainer starts to heat up or go cold. Sometimes making betting decisions based on very short term trends falls flat on its face but that's one of the risks associated with what we do.

I agree Dave, totally different concepts. But I think that whatever concept you choose it has to fit your personality. From reading Formula's posts it's obvious he has a scientific approach to horse racing, and I would speculate life in general. That's his comfort zone. I'd assume that if Formula had an adequate sample size and showed profitability he would continue to research ways to improve on his results.
I don't have a good 'feel' for Bustin Stones. But he seemed to believe that Formulas approach was wasting time for little benefit. He would be more comfortable swinging for the fences on any given day. Its been quite some time since I thought about the velocity of money.
My two cents- I like a mixture of the two approaches. Formula is attempting to validate his research. It's a bit slow moving but a legit approach. I have confidence in my approach over the long run, but believe I have to take some chances as well.
I loved the discussion about favorites though as I see vulnerable favs as a way to help overcome the take.

Lol- was the P4 contest on Paceadvantage? If so I played one year. It was a blast. I managed to finish 3rd but there were some good players in it

Ranch- I do maintain a rolling track profile. Nothing fancy just hand written notes. I also input any biases into notes that carry forward with a horses PP's. Aqu has had many days this winter where speed and the inside part of the track have been golden. I probably missed some winners here as I try not to jump to bias conclusions quickly. Then there have been a number of days where speed carried for 5 races or so followed by an outside closers track for the last few races. Very inconsistent.
Thanks for the ideas Ranch

Thanks for the reply Tom! I may simply be struggling with the same issues. I hope track maintenance gets their arm around this soon.

Thank you Tom!! I love the way you attack the races. I enjoy reading your posts paceadvantage as well

I've had a difficult time at Aqu this winter. My win percentage is down sharply and I'm struggling to understand why some of my selections have run so poorly. The easy way out is blame the track, which has been hard as hell to read. There have been many biased tracks but I'm not convinced that is the answer. If it wasn't for a few P5's I'd be down 5 figures several times over.
Has anyone else been struggling at Aqu this winter? I'd appreciate hearing about any insight you may have.
Thanks

Thanks Tom! Appreciate that. I can see that being very helpful especially on turf races.

And, if you work with a tool that permits 'notes' you can add these track trends so they become a permanent part of a horses PP's

Ramon- Thank you for your work!! Much appreciated

Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job

Good explanation Conley!!

Ranch- regarding my post about leveraging the vulnerable favs here is why I decided to include Ocean Deep on my P5 tickets.
1) I felt I had 2 races (5&6) with pretty vulnerable favs.
2) I felt I had 2 races (7&8) which I had narrowed down to 2 horses.

Ocean Deep did not offer very attractive form. I was leaving both top choices off my ticket in this race so I decided to spread using 4 horses. Ocean Deep and Top Effort both exited the same last race with Top Effort beating Ocean Deep by 2 1/4 lengths. I had noted the track on Dec 30 as one that heavily favored horses on or near the early lead. I felt that Ocean Deep may have been compromised by the track on Dec 30 and may have been good enough to finish with a length or so of Top Effort that day. I was also intrigued by the sudden improvement for a lifetime best sprint on 12-11 with todays rider in the saddle.
Ocean Deep had plenty of negatives but I felt he had a right to improve at big odds.
There was nothing scientific about using him. Just a race that I felt lent itself to a pricy winner. I've lost plenty of races and I'm not afraid to lose a bet. I just hope that in the long run I win enough of them.

Ranch, a real life example of how beating a vulnerable fav can stack the odds in your favor. Today I post 2 vulnerable favs at Aqu. Both favs lost and the winners of those races paid $10.60 and $60.50. Neither winner looked great on form but were reachable if you looked deep into their form. If you delved 3-5 horses deep in horizontals on the races some nifty gimmicks were available

I believe it's important to recognize that most longshots have plenty of negative factors in their form (or they wouldn't be longshots). We have to look past those negatives and search for the positive factors. Look for a reason(s) that the horse 'could' win. This type of horse should offer some value so I would make sure the odds justify investing.