Ranch-
Interesting thought. For myself I look for opportunities when a favorite looks vulnerable. For example, I typically post a vulnerable fav at Aqu or Bel every day. The vulnerable favs are winning at about 24.5%. But when they lose the average win price on the winner of the race exceeds10-1. I see these races as a good place to look for price horses. But I do use standard handicapping in this process.

I also remember reading an article regarding longshot horses. I always meant to followup with some research but never did. The premise was to build a list of positive handicapping factors. The factors could span any part of handicapping, trainer, pace, speed figures etc. The idea was to count the number of 'positive' factors each horse accumulated and bet well priced horses that earned a certain number of them. I will go back and do some research to find that article.

Thanks Conley

Movie was very enjoyable!!! thanks all for the recommendation. Loved it.

I'm going to watch that movie right now. Thanks Dave

I've use Excel minus some of the more advanced functions.Thank you. I own Excel and can probably manage most of the functions.

Biniak- Thank you for the kind programming offer. I will definitely consider it. Let's hope the Lrl track surface holds up through the balance of the winter!!

Hey Biniak,
Some good questions. I live in Pa and love the Md circuit. I follow the result charts but prefer betting on NY.
I am a paper and pencil handicapper but I've owned all of Dave's software offerings including HSH. HSH is powerful but to me also extremely time consuming. I do try to project a horses performance in numerical terms. That includes paceline selection with the ability to 'adjust' based on factors such as age, etc. I was never able to execute this to my satisfaction in HSH.
ThoroBrain simply worked for me. I found it easy to select pacelines and make adjustments. It was friendly to my 'eye'. TB would then run factors from the current race against a file of races you selected as a model. I am certainly no expert regarding the inner workings of the neural network but the results were consistently strong. Strong enough for me to consider handicapping full time. But I had a young, amazing family to care for and handicapping full time seemed too risky.
If I missed anything please let me know

My favorite DS product dates back to the early 1990's and was known as ThoroBrain. It was a neural network that I truly loved. TB is no longer longer available as Dave's product lineup evolved since that time.
In the current offerings I enjoyed reading the 'Opponent Method', specifically the parts regarding session betting. This money management approach has really made a difference in my bottom line.
That being said, I have purchased nearly all of Dave's offerings and have enjoyed them. There is something to be learned in every product. I've tweaked my approach after reading them all.

Latest version up and running on my PC. Thanks again Steven. It will be interesting to monitor this puppy in January

Wow- at first glance very thorough trip notes. I will spend some time evaluating them. I don't play Cal tracks normally but I am giving the early P5 at SA a shot on Sunday with NY closed and a likely over bet firster in race 4. I have to believe Q B One will be over bet as the first foal of Beholder to make the races.

IMO, the current scratch list is an example of incomplete information that can be misleading. For example a vet scratch. What was the reason for the vet scratch? Was the horse lame/sore during a pre race exam? This could be significant. Or did the trainer not like the race and tell the vet the horse didn't eat up and shouldn't run. Or does the horse have a fever of sorts?
While it may not be possible to categorize all the different scenarios an explanation such as sick or lame would help us evaluate the next entry. Sometimes incomplete info can be misleading.

Lol- too funny Steven. Thank you for your work here!!! I seem to find a bug or two in my selections every day.

Tom- thank you for your work as well. After all it's named Tom's Ultimate Odds Line

Thanks Steven for your great work. Since this program is about 'odds lines' I'd suggest some sort of a trainer stat in place of the blank class category. Trainers do impact the odds line and who wins the race. I'll wait for some feedback from Tom, Ranch and William as well. They always present good ideas

Thank you Tom and Steven!! great work and thank you for sharing.

Conley, thank you for your fine work!! Clearly looks like you want to focus on horses on or near the lead (unless I'm misreading something). To me a real bias is underway.
Also something that may provide more power is to consider using ranks for some of the factors. For example is a 113.2 BPP the highest ranked BPP in the first race? I believe a rank would provide a clearer picture for EP and LP factors as well.
Thanks again

Thank you

Hey Steven,
I've been looking at your data and have a question. I do see the general flow but there are 3 rows titled 1,4 and 7. Could you please explain at your convenience what each row represents? That will help me understand your sheets fully. Thanks

I second that thank you!!! Great stuff Steven!!

I believe Ranch is saying that a race from which competitors came back to win their next is likely a stronger race than one where no competitors won their next start. Some refer to this as a key race.