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Dave Schwartz
368Playing Against Low Odds Horses
The real key to winning - IMHO - is to begin by determining if there is a BET AGAINST *FAVORITE in the race.
I'm back to winning - just in the past few days.
*When I say "favorite," I do not mean the post time tote favorite. My definition of a favorite is any horse that is projected to go off at below 3/1.
When I say, "Projected," I mean using what I call the "aML." That stands for Artificial Morning Line.
The low odds horses I don't play are not doing as badly as they have for me historically, but the process is much simpler now.
Historically, those horses have lost big money. The $net on such horses was $0.89 for like 8 years.
In my most recent play, I played 57 races. The low-odds horses -- those that actually went off at below 3/1... looked like this:
ALL UNDER 3/1 (57 races) _____________________________ Odds Starts Wins Pct $Net 1.39 34 16 47.1% $1.66 <3.00 64 19 29.7% $1.87 Total 98 35 35.7% $1.80 UNDER 3/1 and NOT BET _____________________________ Odds Starts Wins Pct $Net 1.39 24 8 33.3% $1.25 3.49 47 10 21.3% $1.37 Total 71 18 25.4% $1.33 UNDER 3/1 and BET _____________________________ Odds Starts Wins Pct $Net 1.39 10 8 80.0% $2.64 3.49 17 9 52.9% $3.26 Total 27 17 63.0% $3.03
Special note: In this sample of live races, I did NOT mark the actual PLAY AGAINST horses. (Wish I had.) -
Dave Schwartz
368Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process? — RanchWest
Not willing at this time.
I will likely turn it into a workshop for my HSH guys.
It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil. -
Conley
424It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil. — Dave Schwartz
Technology gotta love it, Dave! -
Rich Val
7Playing Against Low Odds Horses
The real key to winning - IMHO - is to begin by determining if there is a BET AGAINST *FAVORITE in the race. — Dave Schwartz
How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST? -
Dave Schwartz
368How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST? — Rich Val
WOW!
You're actually here!
Great to hear from you!
Folks, this is the guy who taught me the 7 Days in Utopia approach!
ANSWER: Not quite ready to go public with that, but I will DM you. -
JRand
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Dave Schwartz
368I'd like to get on that list as well. — JRand
Sorry, but no.
Read this thread and you will understand. -
Dave Schwartz
368
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Dave Schwartz
368I would prefer you didn't publish results that cannot be validated (especially for a small sample). Otherwise, it's just like the babble on Fox or the after the fact analysts on CNBC. I won't even mention the other fake news network. Sorry! — Biniak
You can prefer what ever you want, but I doubt you will ever get your preferences fulfilled.
If all the conversation on a forum is only for VALIDATED RESULTS then the bar is just too high and there will be zero new ideas put forth.
If I publish anything, it would be based upon SOME STUDY, but it can never be enough to call it rigorous, otherwise, the cost will be so high as to be unaffordable. -
Tony Kofalt
397
Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job -
Dave Schwartz
368Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job — Tony Kofalt
That changed last year.
A lot changed in 2021.
BTW, the changes can be very abrupt.
They're driven by the fact that the whales retool every year and bring out their new stuff in January.
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