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Steven
114I've had several honey do type projects (can you say "Shiplap"?) going on so I've not been very active lately but I think I'm going to have a bit of open time here at least until spring is in full bloom.
My "database" is a program I wrote that "spits out" a .csv file that I analyze in Excel. It can do about anything I can think of and right now I'm wondering if there is any future in "spot plays". You know, the horse with the best last race speed rating who has a trainer with a win percentage of at least 20% and has the best Q early speed figure in the race who goes off at 3 to 1 or higher. I know from past experience that this can be a "rabbit hole" with no outlet at the end, all you is keep digging.
So I guess I'm wondering:
Do you think there is anything out there that Dave has not analyzed somewhere sometime?
Can this be done with conventional thinking (I'm not much of an "outside the box" thinker).
Do you think that if spot play A work at Gulfstream should it also work at Turfway?
Do you think that maybe a spot play is profitable at certain odds ranges?
What would you consider a spot play?
Anything else you can think of could be of great help.
Thanks! -
RanchWest
50320 years ago or so I was doing spot plays successfully. It takes a lot of research and some thinking outside the box. The payout is the primary consideration. ALWAYS track the payout as the prime consideration. You must find long-term profit.
I was working the tedious way. Take a basic premise. Does it have any hope at all? If so, try tightening it up until it was showing a profit. Then, does it continue to show a profit or does it regress to the mean? Most will regress. Divide into "sessions"... months or whatever. Does the spotplay show a profit in several consecutive sessions? Stay on top of it all the time.
I usually had about 20 spotplays under development. I'd use maybe 5 or 6.
I would stay away from maidens at first.
Some possible fertile ground you might try:
1) form cycles
2) pace extremes
3) claims... if you TRULY understand claiming
4) improvement
5) incorporate class
Don't hesitate to incorporate computations that are available "out there", such as Scott's PCR. -
Dave Schwartz
415@Steven & @RanchWest,
It's all in what one can prove - to one degree or another.
Meaning:
Spot plays are generally built on a backfit.
Most guys look at a database and build a set of rules that worked in the past.
These rules worked because they were contrived based upon history.
Math Guy says: "That's when the testing needs to begin."
Handicapper says: "Huh? But I already proved that it works."
Math Guy says: "No, you proved it WORKED IN THE PAST. Now you must test against a new sample going forward."
Handicapper says: "But I don't have another sample."
Math Guy says: "Then you CAN'T PROVE anything."
Handicapper says: "Oh."
Later...
Handicapper says: "Why didn't it work?" -
Slim
3Irrespective of your handicapping spot plays. I back into from how much $ do i wanna make and what is my roi? Whats my time worth etc.
Say you can make 10% on your spot ewagers you've discovered. So say you are using HDW for data, you are in the neighborhood of $130 month. You need to push $1300 thru the window per month to break even. 4 weeks/month and your gonna play 4 days a week - 16 days - for easy math call it 13 days
So you gotta pump $100 a day. How many spot plays you gonna get and what is your comfort level betting per race.
This sounds pretty obvious but some folks miss it. Good luck with your endeavour. -
Dave Schwartz
415@RanchWest & @Steven but you are both smart guys, who knew all of that above.
IMHO, collaboration between guys like you two really makes a difference. Not only can you spread the work, but you can also share ideas. And the more diverse the collaborators, the more powerful the potential outcome. -
Dave Schwartz
415Note that I suggested beginning with a premise and then testing that premise. That avoids, in part, the backfitting issue. Of course, as you suggested, you still have to forward test because it can still regress. — RanchWest
Of course. But you guys aren't normal players. LOL -
Jim Pommier
133Good afternoon, Steven. I'm interested with working with you on a new spot play. Or at least running it by you. This idea is from my brother. It's a little unique. Also, may be difficult to code since I don't think that the different track's configurations are easily available in current files. Maybe I'm wrong on that.
1. Last race was a 2-turn race. Any distance but was run at 2-turns.
2. Today's race is a 1-turn race at 6.5 to 8.0 furlongs.
3. Today's qualifier(s) have a high ranked late pace (LP) [1st, 2nd], or the LP is within *5 points* of the 1st ranked LP.
For example, a horse runs a 2-turn race at 1 1/16 miles, and today is running 1-turn at 7.0 furlongs. Has the 2nd best LP.
It gets a little tricky since some tracks have 2-turn 8.0's and others are 1-turn. So, it's not always a cut back in distance. The distance could be the same, but today the race is 1-turn versus 2-turns. Also, the "shipper" angle then comes into play.
Thanks, Jim. -
Steven
114Hey Jim. Of course that looks interesting but the 2 turn race and 1 turn race info is not directly available in the data files so this may be impossible to exam. Like it does not say, this was a two turn race and todays race is a one turner. Do you have some mechanical way to determine this like a list of tracks where X furlong races and longer are 2 turners and Y furlong races and shorter are one turners?
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Jim Pommier
133I found a 2013 article that someone over on PA posted that has the information (see below). The data would have to be dusted off since it's from 2013. Probably not too many changes. But it's not in any ready to use mechanical/Excel format. Guessing that a table behind the scenes would have to be built. Not sure if this is something you want to undertake as a programmer? I understand if you don't. The effort to program, and then the visit to the "rabbit hole" as you say. May not be worth it. Thanks, Jim.
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Dave Schwartz
415
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RanchWest
503Two issues I see.
One, the stretch runs will differ. For instance, Delta has a two turn mile on a 6f track, with a long chute leading into a straight portion of the track, running the stretch section twice. The stretch is very short.
Two, what triggers some horses to finish well is changing leads off the turn. So, I don't see the number of turns to be very significant, but actual research could prove me wrong. I think there may be more to be learned from the length of the stretch. -
Tom
90The turnback to a one turn race has been a profitable path for a lot horses, I think, because the two turns give front runners a break, while turn forces them to use more energy early. The cavet that the closer be ranked 1-2 late in the two turn race means it was earned in a negative situation and today will be facing early horses without that edge. Something I will keep in my list of evaluating horses. -
Jim Pommier
133I'm hoping to dig into this a little more this week. E, E/P, P or S-- is there any trend? High early pace or late pace ranking?
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RanchWest
503I'm hoping to dig into this a little more this week. E, E/P, P or S-- is there any trend? High early pace or late pace ranking? — Jim Pommier
The caveat there is that past pace may not be relevant in today's field because the race pace could be quite different. -
Tony Kofalt
403I suspect that like most of us I went through a process to find the ultimate spot play. This occurred very early in my handicapping venture. I was never able to successfully identify a spot play. -
RanchWest
503I was never able to successfully identify a spot play. — Tony Kofalt
It's not easy. I just started working on spot plays again. I'm currently working 10 and 3 are at a profit, but it is still pretty early on with 119, 37 and 8 races. One has a 5% loss. I did pretty well at this 20 years ago, but I was able to bet online at that time... can't now.
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