Welcome to Belmont.
Somedays, it's like a big surprize party! lol.

TFUS agrees with you on the 8th race

R4 Musical America, upside, looks positionally to be alone out there, downside, terrible trainer and rider, but that could really boost your price.
The 2 has shown early speed before, under today's jock, and could be in the mix, but has inferior early pace figs.

8 QF75 looks to be verly lonely out there and should be able to hold on.

I've been trying out this paceline selection for a few weeks and have been happy with the results, albiet a small sample size. The prices are certainly better than focusing on recent lines.
Recent posts here have been extolling the value of time-decay ratings, so I am looking at testing using this line selection method to identify 3 races to use for a TDR rating of several factors, as Ranchwest talked about yesterday. My goal is update my Ultimate Oddsline method, to hopefully grab a few of the better prices out there.

An idea Pandy wrote about in one of his books was to add the ESPs to the E2 rating in BRIS.
I tried doing that using the first call, E1, best 2 of last 4 with promising results in evaluating thev early horses in the race shap.

R4 I would make 4 an A, 1 a B, and 2,7 as Cs.
I really like the move with the 1, speed fade in MSW, dropping into MC with a bullet a few days ago, and a race in a sprint with "Eric the Anchor" aboard to darken his form.

Interesting race. Todd is listed as 24% 90 days or more, but EB shows him only 9% 180 days or over.
The 1 horse was recently scratched from a maiden claimer and the FTS are all negative to my guidelines, but the 4 is close, and has an interesting WO line, nothing for 6 weeks from mid march until early may, then a bullet wo and steady works since then. The 5 is definitely a contender, so I would use 4,5,6 in Race 1.

Key fctor may well the infamous Bel rail bias, which looked strong yesterday.
Maybe NYRA should move the temporary turf rail to the main track.....


THANK YOU Jack, for sharing.

Congrats! Nice achievement.

1 scratched

My contenders are 1,6,3.

1 has two nice angles, Pandy's pace angle, ran against by far the best pace last race, and top notch rider accepting the mount from a lesser trainer.
6 has next best pace, with good turn time rather than E1, should have first run at the 1 and be well ahead of the rest.
3 Horse has more excusable races than usable races, good "back early speed" and a good trainer move, if 4-1, I will bet 1W3P

Overall, 1,3,6 box
Win bets on 6 if 5-2 or better.

Fenwick almost got into the trifecta....in the 14th race! LOL
I heard he was far back. How far back was he?
He was so far back the AMBULENCE stalled.

Simplification
Epicenter
Early Voting

Speaking of "Sheets," this is one of the PP formats CJ used to offer with his program, before TFUS.
It shows the pace and speed figs for pace of race alongside pace of horse, and plots the performance figure, color coded for surface.

Did the Fotius program evolve into Predictform at Brisnet?

The PP Generator can merge the works, sample below. I really hate the way they interupt the running lines with the claimed from comments. Grrrrrrrr!

Back before TFUS, CJ sold his figures to a group and one of the great things was he had a way to replace some data in the $1 files with his pace and speed figs so we could have the PPs with his numbers.

I'm too set in my ways to stray too far from the basic format. I've been using them since Dr Fager.
What I do like is the options and filters Bris Custom Generator offers. Similar to the method Michael Pizzola outlined in Handicapping Magic I use the filter to see only the races within 1 furlong of today's distance and on the same surface, set to show only races where the horse was w/in 2 lengths at the first two calls, evaluate the early pace scenario from there. I make a composite EP and SR, similar to a Qurinn pace/speed figure.

The next step I do is remove the early pace filter and view all the appropriate lines and see what closers can overcome the projected pace.

Tomorrow's 2nd at Belmont is attached in two files, the first pass and the second pass, for examples.
I found a dominant pace horse, the #1, who's 105/84 should put away all the other front runners with the exception of the $6, who cuts back off a very fast route pace. In the second pass, the #2 comes into the picture as a closer who has already won against the projected pace.

It was just for Aqu, based on ongoing records, but it has stood up nicely at other tracks. I am going to re-evaluate for Bel as I get more data. I am just starting to handicap Bel this week.

So if we have 3 lines to sort/weigh, might using a Fibonocci be useful?
Good thread!

I think it would even better if broken down by surface/distance as well.