Here is the chart I used-

This data was collected from a spreadsheet using Dabve's What's winning at your track video, with the 7-4-1 weighting of top 3 finishers. In my study, PP #1 won at 55% because I scanned each race and did not use races that had red flags, like two or more unknowns.

The results of all the races were - 491 races,# wins, w%, avg payout odds based on avg pay

[code
]PP1 160 33% 5.26 8-5
PP2 111 23% 8.51 3-1
PP3 63 13% 11.68 9-2
PP4 60 12% 14.01 6-1
PP 5 46 9% 18.09 8-1
PP>5 51 10%

[/code]

Been away for a while, but I'm back handicapping again and some talk today at PA about Ranchwest reminded me off the good stuff here.
I made a system baserd on BRIS PP only, from an idea I got years ago from a tape from the last Handicapping Expo.

I used the top 3 PP horses. I had, through research, established a minimum odds for each rank of PP and if the 1 rank PP horse was higher than my munimum, it was the bet. If not, I go to #2, and lastly, #3.

No bets beyond #3, unless, rarely, #3 and #4 were exactly tied.

If #1 is 6-5 and my min is 9-5, no play. Keeps me off all low prices, but with so little time to "handicap" a race. I can play a lot more races. I wait to decide until the last minute to bet.

I'll dig up the old chart tonight and post the minimumsd for each rank. It is not a really large sample, all the races were actually bet by me at the time. But a database could do a large sample easily.

Tom

Take cate, Ranch.
Gamvle at the track, be cautious with your health.

The good news is that was the last race I will lose there this year!

I hate NYRA tutf, so I'll look at the card.
Race 3, #7 Quarrel, run well off the turf before,
Can I get 5-2?

Essentially the same core race classes, same group of questionable trainers and clueless riders.
Far too mant days and races.

The three satakes days mentioned are special, but nothing much the rst of the meet.

I will look at Jim Dandy Day, Whitney ay, sand Travers Day.
Other thsan that. I have no interest in Saratoga, or, as it it has become, Aqueduct Noryth.
I started going and playing in 1977, and no longer have the stomach for the watered down product.

It has evolved into Aqueduct without the blue tarp.

TVG and Del Mar this year.

No doubt, Andy doe s a lot of good things at the track, a real asset to the racing community.

I will always respect that and never try to diminish his good deeds.
But he as some personality flaws that atre hard to get by.

Please don't take comments here as minimizing the man, onyt the inner boy, who needs a shorter leash.
Glad too ELP is runnung and not CAE!

It just shows it CAN be done when the effort is mad.

We walked on the moon. We got a track switch right.
Geezw louise, we is goooood!

The best thing about age is that it brings new perspectives.
--Ranchwest


...and new PRESCRIPTIONS!

Serling was rude to Dave twice recently, so I have lost interest in his schtick.

That video, no gone, of him berrating Anthony for losing his job told me that my "friendship" with him was
probably less than I thought.
I'm 72 this month, I no longer need to suffer AHs.

I was set straight by God's gidt to horseracing, Andy Serling, that there
is no racing there until Saturday.

I don't see any PPs for CD or ELP.
There are free PPs at the 365 site?
Where did you find them?

It is the perfect tool for a casual player or weekend player for sure.
Good job, Ranch.

tHE PUBLISHED RUNNING STYLES ARE OFTEN WRONG.

Truer words were never spoken!

Mark Cramer once wrote that when testing angles, he wouls look for twice as many place horses as winners to validate his samples.

Soiunded good to me, I looked at my records and found I hit twice a many places as wins,
So i afdopted the strategy of betting 1 unit win/3 units on any selections going off at 9-2 or higher.

Been very happy with it for years now

You can choose the filters and what content you want in the PDF, then it saves as a seoeraye file, which can be annotated, but not by Formulator itself.

I use the BRIS charts, alternative version, that shows the running line version.
This gives me a quick view of the race in terms of where the horses came from.
I can draw a mental line seperating front half and rear and see what horses made legit moves.
I look at the race wiyh my pace figures to who did real running and who got compromised.
I also like to compare times race to race.

https://paulickreport.com/news/integrity_art/the-change-ahead-void-claim-rules-will-soon-become-national-via-hisa/#:~:text=Claims%20will%20be%20voided%20if,positive%20for%20a%20prohibited%20substance.

Early speed, imho, is they key factor in most races. Many races are over 10 seconds into the running.

No massive data studies, but some bought and paid for observations that have proven usefull:

1. Many E horses can run as EP horses if they need to. Be very cautious labeling one a need-t-lead.

2. An EP horse drawn inside may be forced to send early.

3. An E horse drawn outside the other early speed may well sit off the pace.

4. When 2 E horses are side by side,, re-examine the QSPs. An E4 may well show moe early speed than expected and challemge or even out-pace an E6 . QSPs, if limited to the lat 3 lines are as much form as speed. The E4 might well be an E7 or E8 when in good form. I use Dave's definition of an improving horse as good reason to look at back-speed.

5. Dave's New Pace idea for rating early is tedious by hand, but excellent in practice.

6. The Rs/Pos method by Jim Crammer iis excellent and structured enough to take out a lot of indecision.Much detailed iFREE nformation at HDW.

7. If you use BRIS or have access to pace figuures, try adding the QSPs to the E1 or the E2 pace rating. I use B2L4 pace figs at E1.

8. If you play NYRA, use the Track Trends column for rail bias, very good information.


Great topic.

Rule 2: Don't assume you are, either! lol