My own thought is the same regarding looking for a better pace scenario and my sniffing out of such situations has improved a lot in recent years.
I must admit that I am still far below where I want to be in evaluating bad favorites. I have improved in this regard, but I feel I should have this alarm go off in my head more often.
Tony, if I might ask, what is your most common reason for including specific long shots on your tickets? Form? Pace? Trainer? Pedigree? Works? All button? WAG? Something else?
Quick Grid has a count of races at or above par minus 5. It is on the Speed Deep Dive grid. It is a comparison to BRIS pars, not raw times. Quick Grid uses BRIS data files (single file or Multicaps).
Do you define "foreign'' as having only foreign races showing or would it include any horse with any foreign races showing? For example, if a horse has one North America race showing and the rest are foreign, would you consider it a "foreign" horse?
You could get the wagering evaluation from the odds and also next out winners from the company line, but I assume you are wanting to compare based on your own favorite factors.
I'll play devil's advocate. I love the uncoupled angle. Jock on the #10 is the goto jock and has a high ITM %. I think he was entered a week ago, so that might explain the lack of a recent work. Should be forwardly placed, stamina might improve after the poor start last out. Should hit the board.