I can get this info in Bris PDF for free — HorseSense

Why are you here? You're obviously smarter than any computer could ever be.

I'd say that one of my typical spot plays would have about 7 factors.

I've only taken a very light look so far. If my memory is right, I think Derby winners often have a race about three weeks out. It may not be the best approach, but I usually look at the Derby on the last couple of days before the race.

Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour? — Tony Kofalt

I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data.

Thanks, Tony. I appreciate your response.

Please keep this going. — Colty

We need folks like you. Thanks.

"HOW TO SELECT PACE L;INES" would make for a great topic.
Would like to see someone else post it. — Dave Schwartz

Yeah, mine is very complex.

I was also pointing out that hitting a high percentage does not ensure a profit.

I do have a spot play that has hit 9 of 45 (20%) and returning only 39 cents on the dollar.

Very interesting, Tony.

Is this an art projection or is there a mechanical element to it?

One thing I've come to is to look at the same basic concept in multiple ways, looking for phoney numbers. Like speed. I have a lot of different speed numbers. And pace... lots of different ways of looking at pace. Same for class. And form. Looking for weakness or superiority. And, I have my program select my pace lines.

I was never able to successfully identify a spot play. — Tony Kofalt

It's not easy. I just started working on spot plays again. I'm currently working 10 and 3 are at a profit, but it is still pretty early on with 119, 37 and 8 races. One has a 5% loss. I did pretty well at this 20 years ago, but I was able to bet online at that time... can't now.

I'm hoping to dig into this a little more this week. E, E/P, P or S-- is there any trend? High early pace or late pace ranking? — Jim Pommier

The caveat there is that past pace may not be relevant in today's field because the race pace could be quite different.

Yes, my point was that I got half-way there unintentionally. lol

But it isn't because they don't win races. They win a carload of them. They just lose so much money that it creates a highly playable race. — Dave Schwartz

Yes, I have one going right now that has hit 38.9% and still losing 17%. And, that wasn't even an intentional play against! I look forward to getting into the intentional ones!

I think there's a converse side to this. It is good to know when chaos is unlikely so traditional handicapping has greater reliability.

Wow!! 20-1. And picked BEFORE the race. This is definitely worth looking into. Great pick, Ranch. — andicap

Thanks!

looking at you Aqu5th example, the lone early, and favorite, was the best speed fig by a significent gap, — Tom

I can't fully explain why, but in chaos races the speed figs often make little difference. And speed figs get bet. I think that may partially explain Dave's idea of bet the rest.

Don’t mean to “redboard” but when I looked back at the AQU8 race I noticed the Pace Pressure was “zero”…. That can sometimes cause chaotic results as jockeys and trainers think about stealing on the front end and can consequently, go to fast (setting up for the closers)… For me, Pace Pressure = Zero is always an alert for careful handicapping. — Jack Price

That's basically the same as my thought. I guess we just get to that point a tiny bit differently. Somebody has to be on the front end and none of them belong there.

Excellent job Ranch!!! — Tony Kofalt

Thanks, Tony! I was yelling at the YouTube feed. lol

Thanks, Jack! It is always interesting to see what a serious handicapper is doing.

Particularly, to pre-classify a race based on expected volatility… I use an A,B,C,D, and F grading system with Grd A being highly predictable and Grd F being the most volatile — Jack Price

Is there anything you can share about your volatility ratings?