I came across a horse that might be relevent to not only paceline selection, but eliminating loe priced horses as weel. Today at Tampa Bay, R8, the 2-1 ML favorite looks suspicious at first glance. He dropped in class after a good race returning from a layoff, but not only didn't he win, he ran a significantly lower Beyer figure. Today, he is rising back up in class. — Tom

That one is hooked up tough in that one. I give the 1, 2, 3 and 6 a shot and the 5 has finished ahead of the 4. Should be an interesting race.

Just so you guys know, a few years ago I was struggling to win. Rich valentine came out of the woodwork and offered to coach me. We did 7 sessions over a couple of weeks that put me back on track. — Dave Schwartz

That's impressive.

You guys gotta know that winning players never share their secrets..... — HorseSense

That's funny.

I'm here to see if anybody is smarter than me.....or has stuff unforeseen in past 40 years :) — HorseSense

You've lost me. You can get everything out of free PP's. Who could be smarter than you?

I can get this info in Bris PDF for free — HorseSense

Why are you here? You're obviously smarter than any computer could ever be.

I'd say that one of my typical spot plays would have about 7 factors.

Perhaps I am missing your point, though — Dave Schwartz

My point was that maybe the horse has a great f1, but later in the race stops. Would you consider the great f1 or would you toss the race entirely?

Heck, we've got 4,000 factors per horse, so we sort of have everything. LOL — Dave Schwartz

Sadly, you're more compulsive than me. ROTFLMAO

I've only taken a very light look so far. If my memory is right, I think Derby winners often have a race about three weeks out. It may not be the best approach, but I usually look at the Derby on the last couple of days before the race.

Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour? — Tony Kofalt

I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data.

Thanks, Tony. I appreciate your response.

Then we take those 13 and average them to make Composite F1. — Dave Schwartz

Let's say a horse stops and is vanned off, for example. Do I assume correctly that you would not use any computations from that race? It seems to me that if, for any reason, a number like total Energy cannot be computed, i would not use any computation.

Also, let's say a horse has 3 lines. Would you omit best 3 of last 4, for example?

has anyone ever experimented with a metho Dave calls synthetic pacelines? — Tony Kofalt

No, the closest thing I have done is similar to the RDSS CSR rating. CSR uses a Fibonacci allocation for the speed ratings of the last 4 races. It's a somewhat helpful number. So, I did the same thing with the BRIS pace figs. It gives me another way of looking at pace. As I have mentioned before, I am always looking for whether a number is real or phoney and this gives me another point of comparison.

I know what F1, EP, SC and FW are.

I don't know what FT and PWR are.

And, I don't know the difference between SP and LP.

Can you help me with your definitions, please?

Okay, I'll go first.

First, I have a program and it selects my lines. At present, I only have dirt, turf and off turf. I admit that is probably inadequate. I need to add wet dirt and off turf wet and dry and wet turf. I don't change my lines. But I do have a report that includes the main pace calculations for up to 10 races, adjusted for distance, for every horse.

i select the line based on a point system, with preferred factors garnering points.

Here's what I look for:

1) A similar surface and distance. I prefer within 1/2 furlong up to 1 furlong. i prefer no more than three races back of races that match the surface and distance.
2) There is a preference for FAST/FIRM and also not sealed. Off turf does not have this preference.
3) I very much prefer a line within 7.75 lengths and more than 14 lengths is pretty much useless.
4) There is a strong preference to avoid lines with extreme variants.
5) Prefer not to use a 2 yo line
6) A mild preference for recency in days
7) A mild preference for races since the last claim
8) Prefer a good race as defined by Quirin
9) There's a few other minor points that mostly serve as tie breakers such as similar pars, same track, etc.

Tell me where I'm wrong.

Even if we're finding pass races, it's information. I think information is a key element to successful handicapping. Our information is important whether we are finding what everyone knows or we're onto what few people know. It's all part of zigging and zagging.

Please keep this going. — Colty

We need folks like you. Thanks.

"HOW TO SELECT PACE L;INES" would make for a great topic.
Would like to see someone else post it. — Dave Schwartz

Yeah, mine is very complex.

I was also pointing out that hitting a high percentage does not ensure a profit.

I do have a spot play that has hit 9 of 45 (20%) and returning only 39 cents on the dollar.

Very interesting, Tony.

Is this an art projection or is there a mechanical element to it?

One thing I've come to is to look at the same basic concept in multiple ways, looking for phoney numbers. Like speed. I have a lot of different speed numbers. And pace... lots of different ways of looking at pace. Same for class. And form. Looking for weakness or superiority. And, I have my program select my pace lines.