I was never able to successfully identify a spot play. — Tony Kofalt

It's not easy. I just started working on spot plays again. I'm currently working 10 and 3 are at a profit, but it is still pretty early on with 119, 37 and 8 races. One has a 5% loss. I did pretty well at this 20 years ago, but I was able to bet online at that time... can't now.

I'm hoping to dig into this a little more this week. E, E/P, P or S-- is there any trend? High early pace or late pace ranking? — Jim Pommier

The caveat there is that past pace may not be relevant in today's field because the race pace could be quite different.

Yes, my point was that I got half-way there unintentionally. lol

But it isn't because they don't win races. They win a carload of them. They just lose so much money that it creates a highly playable race. — Dave Schwartz

Yes, I have one going right now that has hit 38.9% and still losing 17%. And, that wasn't even an intentional play against! I look forward to getting into the intentional ones!

I think there's a converse side to this. It is good to know when chaos is unlikely so traditional handicapping has greater reliability.

Wow!! 20-1. And picked BEFORE the race. This is definitely worth looking into. Great pick, Ranch. — andicap

Thanks!

looking at you Aqu5th example, the lone early, and favorite, was the best speed fig by a significent gap, — Tom

I can't fully explain why, but in chaos races the speed figs often make little difference. And speed figs get bet. I think that may partially explain Dave's idea of bet the rest.

Don’t mean to “redboard” but when I looked back at the AQU8 race I noticed the Pace Pressure was “zero”…. That can sometimes cause chaotic results as jockeys and trainers think about stealing on the front end and can consequently, go to fast (setting up for the closers)… For me, Pace Pressure = Zero is always an alert for careful handicapping. — Jack Price

That's basically the same as my thought. I guess we just get to that point a tiny bit differently. Somebody has to be on the front end and none of them belong there.

Excellent job Ranch!!! — Tony Kofalt

Thanks, Tony! I was yelling at the YouTube feed. lol

Thanks, Jack! It is always interesting to see what a serious handicapper is doing.

Particularly, to pre-classify a race based on expected volatility… I use an A,B,C,D, and F grading system with Grd A being highly predictable and Grd F being the most volatile — Jack Price

Is there anything you can share about your volatility ratings?

10 finished 4th for a $86.30 super on a dime. 10 was the second favorite and a logical horse.

Win pays $43.20 and the exacta with the favorite pays $64.75 on a buck. The 3 finished third. The tri paid $128.25 on a half buck.

Ranch... I think he held on... Great Call!!! — Jack Price

;
Thanks, Jack. And again it is the fav in second, as per Dave's pattern.

I see that Tony picked 1,5,10 and those are my traditional selections that my software picks.

8 is scratched. I'll take 3 and 7.

So, you're saying that your bets are 7 & 8 only. — Dave Schwartz

Yes, my selections are 7 and 8 only.

I'll try locating another chaos race. The 8th at AQU today, 4/1. The chaos rating is 3.36, above the 3.2 threshold.

The closers are 3, 7, 8, 11. All have low Quirin speed points.

The 3 has good speed ratings and would be a logical choice.

But I am going to swing for the fences on this one and reduce it to 7,8,11 with morning lines of 30, 15 and 30.

I'm going to go with 7 and 8 as having the staying power. We'll see. Post time is 5:01 Eastern.

Ranch, you mention the big race, and I agree that is positive, I have come up with a hierarcy of last race performance, that is my best case scenario. — Tom

Scott's up close is very strong.

But speaking of failure races... this has been a real problem for me. Every time I think it is important, I see some horse with 4 failures win at a huge price. Any thoughts on that? I've never been able to piece anything together on how that happens. Is it just form darkening?

If they shut off betting 2 minutes to post time, there would be chaos at Gulfstream, where they leave the gat 25 minute after[/i post time. — Tom

Incentive for that to be corrected.