Not all favorites are created equal.

Dave Schwartz

Playing Against Low Odds Horses
The real key to winning - IMHO - is to begin by determining if there is a BET AGAINST *FAVORITE in the race.

I'm back to winning - just in the past few days.

*When I say "favorite," I do not mean the post time tote favorite. My definition of a favorite is any horse that is projected to go off at below 3/1.

When I say, "Projected," I mean using what I call the "aML." That stands for Artificial Morning Line.

The low odds horses I don't play are not doing as badly as they have for me historically, but the process is much simpler now.

Historically, those horses have lost big money. The $net on such horses was $0.89 for like 8 years.

In my most recent play, I played 57 races. The low-odds horses -- those that actually went off at below 3/1... looked like this:

ALL UNDER 3/1  (57 races)
_____________________________
  Odds   Starts     Wins    Pct      $Net
  1.39       34       16   47.1%    $1.66
 <3.00       64       19   29.7%    $1.87

 Total       98       35   35.7%    $1.80


UNDER 3/1 and NOT BET
_____________________________
  Odds   Starts     Wins    Pct      $Net
  1.39       24        8   33.3%    $1.25
  3.49       47       10   21.3%    $1.37

 Total       71       18   25.4%    $1.33
 

UNDER 3/1 and BET
_____________________________
  Odds   Starts     Wins    Pct      $Net
  1.39       10        8   80.0%    $2.64
  3.49       17        9   52.9%    $3.26

 Total       27       17   63.0%    $3.03

Special note: In this sample of live races, I did NOT mark the actual PLAY AGAINST horses. (Wish I had.)

RanchWest

Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process?

Dave Schwartz

Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process? — RanchWest

Not willing at this time.
I will likely turn it into a workshop for my HSH guys.

It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil.

RanchWest

Thanks

Conley

It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil. — Dave Schwartz

Technology gotta love it, Dave!

Rich Val

Playing Against Low Odds Horses
The real key to winning - IMHO - is to begin by determining if there is a BET AGAINST *FAVORITE in the race. — Dave Schwartz

How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST?

Dave Schwartz

How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST? — Rich Val

WOW!
You're actually here!
Great to hear from you!

Folks, this is the guy who taught me the 7 Days in Utopia approach!

ANSWER: Not quite ready to go public with that, but I will DM you.

Dave Schwartz

I'd like to get on that list as well. — JRand

Sorry, but no.

Read this thread and you will understand.

Dave Schwartz

@JRand,
You CAN message me, of course.

But you CAN'T get the answer in return. :grin:

Dave Schwartz

I would prefer you didn't publish results that cannot be validated (especially for a small sample). Otherwise, it's just like the babble on Fox or the after the fact analysts on CNBC. I won't even mention the other fake news network. Sorry! — Biniak

You can prefer what ever you want, but I doubt you will ever get your preferences fulfilled.

If all the conversation on a forum is only for VALIDATED RESULTS then the bar is just too high and there will be zero new ideas put forth.

If I publish anything, it would be based upon SOME STUDY, but it can never be enough to call it rigorous, otherwise, the cost will be so high as to be unaffordable.

Tony Kofalt

↪Dave Schwartz

Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job

Dave Schwartz

Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job — Tony Kofalt

That changed last year.

A lot changed in 2021.

BTW, the changes can be very abrupt.
They're driven by the fact that the whales retool every year and bring out their new stuff in January.

Not all favorites are created equal.

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