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Ques004: AI BEST HORSE - ODDS SENSITIVE (LONGSHOTS)The choices were due to research done by a simple engine I created a long time ago that crawled the data trying different odds ranges.
These were the significant breakpoints that produced changes in the factor makeup.
Thus, 4/1+ horses contain a better factor makeup than 7/2+ - more CONSISTENCY IN LIKENESS.
IOW, they were built not to fit the need for human conformity to a strategy but rather where the data took me. -
Ques001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPING↪Dave Schwartz Will that be for everyone to see like these videos are? — Mark
Yes.
It will all be public. -
Ques001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPINGThese videos are awesome! Dave you are doing a great job, and I can't wait to watch more. — Dave
Thank you.
I'm part way through the next one and will finish in the morning. -
Ques001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPINGI would like to see a video of the software in full screen mode going through all buttons and what they do. — Mark
That will come when we get to training - during the first wave of onboarding. -
Ques001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPING
First, excellent post and your thought process is a great start.
I will assume that you'd like comments.
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ABOUT BALOs...
BALOs, are literally BET AGAINST horses.
That means EVERY TIME you bet one you just took a SIGNIFICANT LOSS on every WIN spot ticket connected to them.
What we all need is to have a special bone installed into our heads that makes a horse player say, "I don't make bad bets."
The exception is to make a HEDGE BET that contains the losing proposition.
This demands that you bet significantly less on the BALOs.
If one is wagering a flat amount on every combination, it's not typically possible.
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ABOUT HORIZONTAL BETS...
They come with a built in drawback.
In horizontal wagers there is no way to BENEFIT by LEVERAGING a BALO!
In single-race bets you can actually take advantage of what you know that others don't!
In exactas, trifectas, and supers, you can KEY that BALO underneath.
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2024 HorseStreet Pars: Some Errors Now FixedFound one more error: AQU 1 1/8 was missing.
Adding it enabled me to improve all the route pars.
All files have been updated.
Just open your order and click the link.
If anyone has lost their order link, just email KelseyatHorseStreetdotcom and she'll take care of sending you your order link. -
2024 HorseStreet Par Times are Available Now!If you ordered the 2024 Pars, the Electronic version has been emailed to you.
Most came from Kelsey, my Customer Service VA.
If you don't see it, check SPAM. -
2024 HorseStreet Par Times are Available Now!Special Note: If you pre-ordered pars they will be emailed today.
The physical book orders are at the printer and should ship on Thursday.
And, Yes. I can see there is a glitch on our store page. -
Monty Hall InquiryI think you need to get past expecting profit if any win.
If this race is a good example of the races you bet, and usually you're betting horses that go off at 5/1 and above... consider this table:
NM Races. 201-PubChWIN BETS Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC <5/1 13,869 3,745 27.0 $1.68 1.81 1.04 $6.20 2.12 1.99 Above 21,504 1,264 5.9 $1.43 0.43 0.90 $24.32 11.48 5.59 Total 35,373 5,009 14.2 $1.53 1.00 0.98
This represents a 5,000-race random sample from 2023 of all horses below 5/1.
(There were obviously 9 deadheats.)
Of the 5,000 races, 3,745 winners were under 5/1.
That's 74.9%, leaving you just 25.1% of races producing winners such as the one above.
NM Races. 201-PubCh+174-rPSR WIN BETS Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC <5/1 r 1-3 11,135 3,180 28.6 $1.66 1.90 1.04 $5.82 1.95 1.86 <5/1 above 2,734 565 20.7 $1.73 1.42 1.04 $8.35 3.11 2.53 Above r 1-3 4,653 413 8.9 $1.59 0.63 0.95 $17.86 7.70 4.38 Above above 16,851 851 5.1 $1.39 0.37 0.88 $27.46 13.18 5.92 Total 35,373 5,009 14.2 $1.53 1.00 0.98
Imagine that your horses are ALL one of the best 3 horses in the field. (Here I've used PSR as an indicator Like BRIS Prime Power.)
Above r 1-3 4,653 413 8.9 $1.59 0.63 0.95 $17.86 7.70 4.38
I question that you can consistently bet 3 horses per race, Dutch, and expect to make profit long term. -
Monty Hall Inquiry
Understand that I am not being critical here.
I'm on your side.
#1 $28 6.4 $23 #3 $21 14.20 $11 #10 $10 5.30 $26
So, you bet $10 on the winner and should have bet $26.
Do you see that Dutching from a poorly estimated tote doesn't work?
Consider that 74% of all winners are bet down from their GATE ODDS, while the losers go up.
It does NOT average out!
I believe that if you play a couple of days of races and track how you bet vs. how you should have bet and you will see that this is the norm. If you are constantly seeing your winners' odds going do and your loser's odds going up, then you know your betting strategy is not sustainable.
You cashed a ticket but squandered a chance to make big money and basically broke even instead of winning $100.
Consider Howard Sartin's old approach with 2-horse betting.
He advocated a 60-40% split, with 60% on the low odds horse and 40% on the higher odds.
Now, consider the stat that I offered where I said that 74% of winners are bet down from their gate odds and the losers are bet up.
That's equivalent to saying, "I'm doing it backwards."
So what if you REVERSED it and played an ANTI-DUTCH?
WHAT?
How does that work?
Consider your original bet in the race: $60.
So, each horse gets the DIFFERENCE between $60 and his bet.
Let's pretend that's how we split the money.
Total = $121#1 $28 becomes $32 #3 $21 becomes $39 #10 $10 becomes $50
Use THOSE BETS to divide the money.
#1 $28 becomes $32 32 / 121 x 60 = $16 #3 $21 becomes $39 39 / 121 x 60 = $19 #10 $10 becomes $50 50 / 121 x 60 = $25
What do you think? -
Monty Hall InquiryFinished #10/3/6. The Even money favorite #8 was 4th. Wagered $60.00 and returned $63.00. — Jim Pommier
Questions
1. How did you split the money?
2. Why did you do it that way? -
Monty Hall Inquiry
This has the potential to be a very worthwhile conversation, but it really needs to be an interactive conversation as opposed to a Dave Lecture.
Some Basic Questions to Start
1) Are you interested in applying the Monty Hall approach to your 3 contenders?
2) Do you want to HANDICAP your 3 contenders down to a single play?
3) Do you want to bet all 3 horses in some sort of Dutch? -
Which Tracks Are Most Handicapable?
Ah... You're "Autumn Lotus" on PA!
Read that other post I made in your other thread on PA yesterday. That's where the meat of winning can be found. But most people would rather not work so hard.
How People Handicap (my reply on PA) -
Which Tracks Are Most Handicapable?
PEN & CT are most definitely in the list.
Go to the alpha list and you can find them easily.
All the tracks are there. -
The deTerminatorPS: In Chaos races, the AI often suggests how to handicap the race, when to do NO HANDICAPPING (yes, that's a thing), and sometimes even suggests who to put money on.
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The deTerminatorWhat makes this section of the program so neat is that there are so many ways to get OPINIONS & ADVICE from the AI.
For example, something that gets displayed this week is THE CHAOS METER, which PREDICTS the CHANCES that the race will be CHAOTIC.
This is NOT based upon things like field size, how many FTS, etc. In other words, it is not based upon "THERE'S NOT MUCH INFO IN THIS RACE, SO THE PRICE SHOULD BE HIGH."
It is based upon the likelihood that THE PUBLIC'S HANDICAPPING WON'T WORK or HOW CONFUSED THE PUBLIC WILL BE in this race, and is TOTALLY AI DRIVEN.
This will rock the world of tournament those who play tournaments, longshot, or focus on multi-race bets.
Dave Schwartz
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