Comments

  • What being a member here has done for me
    By the way, I am not suggesting that all races should be played from the top 3 odds horses. I am just saying that is where most winners will come from. Like, with the races above, 4 winners came from the 5th odds line horse and above. That's about 15%. That might give an idea of a reasonable distribution of selections in the long haul.RanchWest

    That would be an absolute fact.

    How do you leverage that to be profitable?
  • My New Software is coming: The STUDIO


    Oh, and I apologize for my tone in my original reply.

    I'm just amazed at how many people call me and say stuff like, "I only play 3 days a month. Can I get your software for free?"

    But nevertheless, you did not deserve my tone, so I apologize.
  • My New Software is coming: The STUDIO
    That's crystal clear.

    Trust me when I say that the $12 per month will be the best $12 you ever spent in terms of what you get.

    We're trying to build something special here.
    (And I am not talking just about the software.)

    You'll either buy in or not.

    For the record, my biz model is not the same as HTR.
    He does it his way and I do it mine.
    I like mine.
    (He likes his.)
    What matters to you is which one you like.

    Best to you, Slim.
  • My New Software is coming: The STUDIO

    Correct.

    Did you expect it would be free?
  • What being a member here has done for me
    I thought Jackie's Warrior was a good bet at even money.RanchWest

    Bring that up tonight and we can look at that race - whichever one it was.
  • My New Software is coming: The STUDIO
    Dave: I don't use HSH. How much will it cost me for the new software and data fees?Jim Michalak

    There will be several levels.
    Still working on pricing, but levels are:
    1. No-Data (worksheets and organization) $79 + $12 a month
    2. Basic (HDW) $147 + $12 per month
    3. Premium (HDW) $477 + $12 per month
    4. Pro (HDW) Includes HSH $1,600 + $12 per month


    The $12 per month is for subscription to this website which includes:
    Products from our store.
    Special stuff like picks from our software, etc.
    A lot for very little.
    If you have the software, it includes some very cool add-ins.

    HDW Downloads are $142 per month from HDW.
    All tracks, with results.
  • Fellow Won the Derby Trifecta with ALL button - Does that count?
    I’ve heard better lucky than good.Steven

    Point taken.
    If only that worked it the long run, right? LOL
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    Let's catch up after this weekend.
    I'd really like to run some ideas past you - especially on the note taking.
  • What being a member here has done for me
    While big scores are really nice, the every day bread and butter is winners that look to be sound wagers.RanchWest

    I think the above quote is really the game changer.
    It is a subtle difference, but do you see how the UNSPOKEN FOCUS has shifted from price=value to value=value no matter the price?

    This is how one becomes a long-term winner as opposed to being a Slot Machine Horse Player.
    (i.e. one who depends upon luck to have a winning day and almost never has a winning month.)

    And it is amazing how fast the transition occurs: Usually just takes A FEW DAYS.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    Experience does help. But I'd have to say that my experience with Thorograph played a big part. Especially the concepts around form cyclesTony Kofalt

    Tell us as much as you can, please, about that process.
    Or links to TGraph docs.

    BTW, HSH does have built in Rag-style numbers.
    Do you like those?
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    Is that something you are doing through HSH? Is there some automation involved in the form cycle weights or is that pretty much subjective?RanchWest

    HSH supports that - even via the systems.

    (Tony hasn't used HSH for a long time.)
  • What being a member here has done for me
    Gentlemen, THIS is what I want YOU GUYS to share with our handicapping world.
  • What being a member here has done for me
    @RanchWest

    You are awesome, man!

    Love that you are making real VALUE selections.

    I look forward to you teaching what you know real soon.
  • What about jockeys?
    Love the story.
    I've heard similar before.
    Had an old friend/client (early '90s) Jeff G. who had Robbie Davis' book for a while. The stories I got were really amazing.
  • What about jockeys?
    I think it would even better if broken down by surface/distance as well.Tom

    Oh, we'll do WAY MORE than that.

    I'm going to re-do our trainer stats as well, and those are already mind-blowing.

    We have the usual stuff like---
    wymjaua2gdj8w201.jpg

    But we've also got PERFORMANCE STATS.
    ghq69p5j01ua4kwa.jpg

    But I want to re-do them ad add a couple hundred more factors.
  • What about jockeys?
    It's in the Bris Ultimate PPs.
    As Richie Migliore says about early speed as a weapon,"They have to go where I've already been."
    Tom

    Excellent.
    A feature we need in The Studio.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    I asked Rich about this (above), but I should have asked you. I am a confused on the need to Sort by. Can you explain a little or give an example? Thanks for sharing!Biniak

    Easy.
    You have 10 pacelines for a horse.
    There are 3 issues:
    1. Which pacelines are QUALIFIED?
    2. How many do we want to SELECT?
    3. How should we ORDER them to determine which to select?

    1. Is similar surface, similar distance, lengths behind/ahead.
    2. Is a determination that should change depending upon the confidence we have in the selection.

    3. Is what you asked about.
    Imagine you have 10 pacelines.
    Step 1 slims that down to (say) 3 pacelines.
    If it slimmed it down to just one, you would need a sort, right?

    But with 3 pacelines, you need some way to ORDER them.
    Sort by:
    most recent
    closest distance
    fastest final time

    This particular sort will really only require "Most Recent" because there will never be a tie (unless the horse raced twice in one day. - It HAS happened.)

    But some of the other conditions require more sorts.

    THE POINT
    You will sort and take the TOP LINE (or top 2, 3 or whatever).

    Hope this explains it.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    My mistake.
    I forgot that I changed the rules about 5 years ago.
    Had to go look at the code.

    It appears that I changed it to 1st or 2nd, or less than 1.00 lengths.

    Good catch.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    Okay, I'm lost. I don't understand how the two example horses earned a G for the races marked. There's something I don't understand here.RanchWest

    Because they won those races.
    Or, they finished so close that it counts as a win.

    More specifically, #6 won her 5th race back which was:
    • Same surface as today.
    • Similar distance as today.
    • Same or higher class as today.

    What are you not understanding about that?