This may require some thought but at first pass I don't like the idea. I also see some issues with jockey safety as well. I should study up on this as some folks believe it is a good idea. lol — Tony Kofalt

I really look forward to your POV.
I thought it would IMPROVE safety for the riders because you wouldn't have the guys coming through on the rail.

I actually hope you're right because CHANGE is the ENEMY of UNDERSTANDING.

You're very coachable.
Glad this is working out well for you.

Hope you guys don't mind but I'm going to move this to the handicapping forum.

Welcome, and Thank you.

Quick question about your Par Times:
Did you say that when I purchase the 2021 Electronic/Hard Copy Par Times this year I will get the 2022 Pars for free? And did you say on or before December 15th? — Conley

Yes. We do that every year.
In YOUR case, you can order now and we'll give you the 2022's when they're available.

Dave, I would take advantage of this but I believe that I literally own everything that’s not HSH specific. — Steven

Well, I'm going to build the new P&P just for you. :cool:

I believe I need to focus more on including the best speed horses. Here is my plan of attack.
!) it is acceptable for all of your contenders to show early speed of lay close to the pace.
2) it is acceptable to include a mix of speed type (early and late) on your tickets
3) it is NOT acceptable to build contenders when none of them figure to press or be involved early.
The exception would be an off the pace 'single'.
I don't know how I let this happen but the post race autopsy gave me the insight to implement a solution.
Any thoughts? — Tony Kofalt

My research on this - and where I began with the Early Speed Series - is to do something I call SUBSET HANDICAPPING.

You saw a hint of it in the 8-Point Horse post.

That is, asking the question, "What happens if the 8-point horse doesn't win?"

Assuming the Percentages & Probabilities 2022 product does well, I will continue to do more products. My prime focus will definitely be on SUBSET HANDICAPPING.

Teaser:
My belief is that late horses are not typically predictable.
It's more like saying "Late horses win when early horses lose."

Trust me when I say that the impact of that is almost as startling as the 8-point losers.

Great idea!

And, boy, do I agree.
At the very least it should be part of the equation.

Unfortunately, we don't have a system that allows "Likes."
It only supports "Loves," and no other choices.
Worse, the mechanism is not programmable.

But there are also other issues with that approach:
1. Many board members do not use that system.
2. It causes the reward system to be dependent upon the actions of others instead of the posters.

I have some other ideas for gamification, but it is not for the start up phase.

Of course. And he deserves credit for being profitable.

That’s interesting. I’ve heard lots of people (non pros) say they would be making more money working at McDonald’s than playing the horses. — Steven

Such is the difference between the true professionals and everyone else. One fellow on PaceAdvantage - in the discussion about our post about Whales talked about having a friend he called "whale" who was making about $80,000 per year.

While $80k would qualify him as a low-end professional in my mind, I'd never equate that with a WHALE betting $100m per year or more. In fact, the comparison is laughable.

That PA discussion can be found here.
WHALES: A little back story Part 1

I'd like to see some contests for typical racing. I remember the old Aqueduct Inner Dirt P4 contests. That was a lot of fun, though a bit long, the entire season. Maybe a one-day contest followed by discussion. — RanchWest

This would be for everyone, right?
i.e. not just as a Founding Members perk, right?

I know it seems like "What's the big deal?" BUT...
...the problem with contests is that someone has to devote an entire day to that endeavor just to keep score, moderate closing races, etc. Thus, the cost is measured in thousands of dollars for a weekend contest.

Few ideas:
1) Store discounts (between 15-25% depending on product and/or price)

2) Special Day Handicapping with Dave+betting etc

3) I was going to also say something like “Founding Member” title under your name so people know lol

4) Coaching 1-1 with Dave with learning new ideas such as “How to Use Pars for Handicapping” “Figuring What Wins at YOUR track” or basically having a seminar of different topics — Conley

I love all of these.
One-on-one is a little top heavy to support 100 guys, but the idea of a coaching group is awesome.

One issue I have with your suggestions is that this site will fail if everything is about me.
This site has to find its own way; make its own leaders & heroes. Sure, I'll be there and readily accept the mantle of responsibility for things, but the goal is to allow people to REACH THEIR OWN SUPER STAR STATUS.

Thank you for the GREAT IDEAS!
Keep 'em coming.

Benefit idea for founding members - 25% off any Dave Schwartz product otherwise than HSH. — Steven

Might be a little steep, but I like the concept.
Perhaps a lifetime coupon for such a discount.

Products with recurring revenue (such as HSH) have more room for discounts.

What do you think about a monthly Founding Members Coaching Meeting?

Tony was instrumental in my becoming a horizontal player in my betting. I was at theHarrisburg seminar and Tony and I corresponded on the bulletin board. Great podcast. Happy to hear that Tony is doing well. Dave has transformed my betting techniques with his manuals. Apart from the Sartin Pirco guys, he's the best there is. — Gerard Rodrigue

A lot of people might not know but @Tony Kofalt actually was the host at that seminar. He did all the work - and I just should up with computers & slidfes.

It would never have happened without him.

That's how we became lifelong friends.

Should I wait a little longer for the 2022 version of P&P ? — William Zayonce

If you buy it now, I'll just give you a full credit towards the new one when it is available.

Ok, I got you...so it's a little bit of manual estimation to get your actual turn times. That makes sense, was just making sure there wasn't some awesome set of turn data out there I wasn't aware of. — Dustin Korth

Well, there is in our software.

We see all the numbers as having 4 distinct fractions and the ratings attached to them.

I'm currently working on Percentages & Probabilities 2022, which will be available before Christmas. After that, my next publication will contain some high-level pace analysis materials that addresses factors and their potential value as a predictor.

Can't overdue those stats from a global perspective, though, because they are likely to change across track-surface-distance-pace shape.

I have been looking at the actual internal fraction around the turn. — Jim Chiamardas

That's how I see it as well.
Just wanted to make sure I understood.

Do you define "turn time" as the 4f time in a 6 furlong race or is it the actual fractional time from 1st call to 2nd call?

If you want to see an interesting analysis of Expected Performance Last Start vs Actual Performance This Start see https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/importance-of-previous-starting-prices/
The analysis relates to Australian racing and the article is on Betfair Australia site. Let me know if you can't access it. — John Rosier

That is an excellent article!
A bit more in-depth than the one I read on Sky Racing.

Thank you.

I'm not familiar with Harbour so I looked it up.

That is certainly NOT the dBase-Clipper -FoxPro-type of language software from the '80s. LOL

Wonderful to see that those old database engines are still supported.
Is the old CODE supported as well?

I would be interested in what you learnt about the Australian approach. Can you share it? — John Rosier

A couple of very cool ideas.

First, understand that the AUS PPs are just... lacking. What we take for granted in the depth and quality of data is literally like 50x what the AUS punters have!

When working with the AUS guys I was able to get their data. Would you believe that what we get for (say) $125 per month would cost over $3,000 over there - and would still be like 1/3 of ours!

So, when I say, that I learned some good stuff, I don't mean that it is readily available.

So, here's some cool ideas that I will be adding to our stuff.

RAN WELL
Think of it as sort of like Quirin's "Good Race."
Ran 1st,2nd,3rd
or
Within 2 lengths (3 lengths in a route)

But, instead, they measure it in lengths behind the winner.

EXPECTED TO RUN WELL
Imagine a table that has 2 columns.

• 1st column is ODDS.
• 2nd column is lengths behind

Now imagine that the Lengths Behind column represents the Average Lengths Behind for a horse in each of the given odds ranges.

Thus, one can look at a horse that is 5/2 and say that HE SHOULD RUN WITHIN 2.3 LENGTHS.
(Not the actual number.)

Imagine having that for each odds range.

CORRELATING ODDS TO LENGTHS & BACK
The upshot of this is that a particular performance (i.e. beaten lengths) can now be graded as "He ran like 2/1" or "He ran like 12/1."

Of course, the class levels are another cool thing, but I will leave that for another day.