Disregard the above as I was hoping for a “fast” track….

Tony, since you have a strong opinion on R4 - #6 (Basic Truth), I say go for it! I agree that he will most likely be on the lead turning for home….

However, I’ve always had trouble getting the horses to do what I want in bottom of the barrel two-year old races (yes, I know they just turned three)…I think the #10 and the #6 will be the top two betting choices and the most likely winners of the race (respectively 2/1 (or less) and 5/2 – 3/1).

At first glance, I also like a prospective single in both Pick5 legs…the #4 (Gasoline) in R5. To me, he appears to have the most upside as a young, lightly raced and hopefully still improving gelding…he’s always well bet and this looks like a good spot to get his second win….

So, my ticket in the first Pick5 will be a caveman as follows: 1,2,4,5,7 / ALL* / 3,4,6 / 6, 10 / 4
*Note: Trying to create some value in leg 2 hoping someone can snap the #2 (I know, not likely!)

In the second Pick5, I’m trying to create value in the first leg as follows:
R4) A’s = 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 --- B’s = 6, 10
R5) A’s = 4
R6) A’s = 1,2
R7) A’s = 1 --- B’s = 7
R8) A’s = 2,5,8 --- B’s = 1,3,4,6,7 --- C’s = 9

Like you said, “there are many ways to project a race”!

Best of luck today!

KEY POINT:
In this age, there is no single skill that you can master...
that will improve your results...
more than learning to pick winning and losing favorites. — Dave Schwartz

Great Stuff.... Dave, thanks for sharing!

For anyone interested, I've attached a one page summary of Dave's 3-part discussion on "Concepts & POV".

Disclaimer: I do not pretend to be an authority or profess to be some genius handicapper…. This is simply my two cents.

To echo Dave’s remarks, in an earlier life, I was involved in a manufacturing industry as a sub-contract supplier to large corporations…specifically suppling sheet metal fabrications and machined components. Due to the high level of quality control required by our customers, we were given an on-going challenge for continuous quality improvement…. In other words, project specific improvement goals with measurable results.

To relate this to horse race handicapping, you would define your total process and then select an area within the overall process that required improvement…. For example, your process component of “contender selection”…. First you would need to establish (via your records) an existing baseline (or, if you do not have a baseline, you would need to spend some time and develop one)…. OK, let’s say one of your top three contenders wins the race 60% of the time…you feel you can do better and you set a new goal of 65% winners in top 3…you brainstorm with others; you read forums; you re-read handicapping books; you purchase new handicapping products/innovations; you decide to keep better records via a database; or whatever you feel can push more winners to the top…. Then you set a reasonable time frame to achieve your goal (let’s say six months)…. Then, at the end of your selected time frame, you measure your results against the goal you wanted to achieve…. This is a never-ending pursuit; so, rinse and repeat as necessary.

From reading some of Tom’s posts on this and other boards, I believe he worked in a QC field and perhaps could wade in on this discussion/approach….

Any critique of this concept is welcomed and appreciated.

How are you relating this to horse racing? Are you making the case for a bet against low odds horse to tilt the odds? — Biniak

It has nothing to do with betting against low odds horses.... It's about a money management strategy that teaches you how to make an optimum bet to accelerate bankroll growth (it's anti Kelly Criterion).... The product is called "The Opponent Method" and you can find it in Dave's Store…. You should check it out and weather or not you end of using this exact approach, you won’t be sorry you bought it!

You're right.... it's not for everyone.
However, I should have elaborated.... Gary helped me write VBA code that imported tote odds into my custom spreadsheet...it happened instantaneously at the push of a couple of buttons: (1) one for the track of choice and (2) one to import into excel spreadsheet…. I have no problem playing multiple tracks at one time (no hassle whatsoever).
I wonder if you could work something out with him?
No response needed…just food for thought.

ATRpro.... great value at $99.00 per year!

Dave has a product entitled "Understanding Early Speed".... In one of the later chapters he defines four distinct race shapes based upon "pace pressure" (using Quirin Early Speed Points).... If there is "no discernable pace pressure" or in other words, pace pressure is not predictable, then you have a "chaos" race.... This "process" has served me well and I'll leave it to Dave to elaborate if he so chooses....

Or, I'm sure he'd be pleased if you purchased this excellent product!

BTW, I'm not a shill for Dave and I must admit I've purchased most all of his products.... I've both used and discarded many of his ideas; but without exception, I've found handicapping "nuggets" in all of them!

Tony, that was a bad beat! The #2 ran great and you made a great pick! Great handicapping!

Also,
When playing horizontals, it’s important to remember the math…. Assuming, Tony is playing the early pick5 at Belmont and has found a single that should be a big price (#2 in race 4)…. Let’s assume Tony feels his “single” has a 25% chance of success and in the other four legs Tony feels he has an 80% chance to score.

On a “caveman ticket”, this means .8 x .8 x .8 x .25 x .8 = .1024

So, Tony has a 10% chance to hit this ticket or a 9/1 chance…. If he’s correct with his probability estimates and even though it’s hard to know exactly what the pick5 payout might be, he definitely has value at 9/1!

But, if his actual probability is .5 x .5 x .5 x .15 x .5 = .0094, he has a 1% or 99/1 chance of hitting his ticket….

Most of us know this, but just wanted to share a friendly reminder on how hard it is to hit the pick5! Most importantly, and even though it’s a best guess, it’s valuable to assign probabilities to each leg and make a forecast for success.

Not sure why I feel the need to share this; but, oh well....

Tony, I’ll wade in with the following comments…

Bel1) In my opinion, #6 looks like a clear winner and has a minimum 50% chance of winning this race…most likely will go off at 3/5 or less. However, they’re all basically “unknowns” and much like your opinion, I would like to try and beat the favorite (especially in these types of lightly raced, state bred races)…but, I would still use the #6 as an “A” along with two others… My initial preference would be the two longest prices on the board… Or, if one of the first timers was being bet at or below their morning line, I might consider… Regardless, I would definitely play against (not use) the #1 who figures to be the likely second choice!
An interesting trainer tidbit = Schosberg in the last 365 days is 4 for 8 with second time starters… #5 was well bet in her debut and has a bit of an excuse in her first attempt… With a ML of 12/1, I would most likely be using her!
Anyway, I would wait for a look at the tote board and most likely I’m using three A’s = #6, #5 and a last- minute decision on one of the first timers….

Bel4 / Turf Only) Sorry, I really can’t make a case for the #2… If she was turning back to a turf sprint off her last effort, I would wholeheartedly support your opinion! I just don’t see her turning the tables on the #4 who figures to improve in her second start for new trainer Atras… Anyway, I’ll certainly be rooting for you and your valiant strategy to single #2!
If I were playing, I would probably look first to all the MSW droppers as potential “A’s”… #1, #7, #8, #11 and #13 with a first preference = #8... For me, the #4 and #6 would be "C's" at best.

Tony, best of luck!

I’ve had “private messages” requesting more information about the “Art verse Science” pdf I shared a few months back…. For some reason, I’m unable to load an attachment on a PM so I thought I’d share a summary file for the Belmont Stakes in this thread (including answers to questions received).

Generally, if I'm playing "verticals", I'm looking to bet the Level 1 races only…. I use the statistical data as a “pre-handicapping”, starting point only and then, I do a deeper dive using my handicapping experience (the “art”) based on any race of interest.

The “will advise” reference refers to flagging non-contenders giving a second look to any horse with a “Betting Line” (BL) rank of <=5 and BL Odds <=25.

I’ve attached a larger sample of my research for any aspirations you may have to doing something similar…. Some of it is a little outdated; but, you’ll get the general idea.

Best of luck with your future endeavors!

Jack

FYI: If necessary to "unprotect" an individual worksheet, just select the "Review" tab and click on "Unprotect"...a password is not required.

Here's a corrected copy of the Excel TicketMaker as there was a small formatting issue....

Tony,
1stBET (Xpressbet) has a built in ticket maker (similar to DRF Bets) that lets you submit all your plays at the push of a button.... I attached a "sample" PDF for your review.

Also, since i don't use DRF, I made my own Excel TicketMaker as per the attachment.... Just enter your "info" in the "grayed out" cells and your good to go.

Good Luck,
Jack

Ranch,
Here is an idea for you to consider… I construct my PP’s by importing data from Access to Excel… All the horses are sorted by projected early pace and at the same time, I can get a “group” comparison of all the various “factors” I deem of value for each respective race… Then, as desired, I can scroll horse-by-horse and look at individual running lines populated in the excel formula bar… The last five running lines for Hawk of War are displayed in the example race (see attachment)… For reference and pertaining to something else you mentioned, I include all recent workouts in the “LAY” column…they are also displayed in the “Formula Bar” by clicking on the layoff days for each respective horse accordingly.

I just wanted to show you this example as you’re a smart guy and if interested, you could develop something similar….

BOL,
Jack

Tom, thanks for sharing this race…. Very interesting in that HDW speed figures paints a different picture…he gets a 69 final time fig for his last effort (133 1st call & and 113 2nd call)…and for the race two back a 63 final time fig (118 1st call and 104 2nd call).

To me, turning back to 6f from 7f; a 40-day freshening; using the HDW speed and pace figures; the jock switch to Camacho; and moving back up in class as positive trainer intent… I would guess the horse is sitting on an improved, winning effort???

However, with all that said, looks like lots of early pace pressure and no way I would take a short price on anyone in this race!

BOL!

here is nothing that will give you 80% within top 3 with a substantial amount of plays... — HorseSense

You’re probably right, but I’ve got some ideas to pursue….

BTW, I appreciate all your comments as it’s nice to have different perspectives….

I would contend (small pun coming) that the issue is not the win% on the top contenders.
The issue is figuring out which low odds horses to remove BEFORE selecting those contenders. — Dave Schwartz

Yes, big fan of your RVM (Race Value Metric) used to determine a playable race!

Morning Line can you you that too.... — HorseSense

FYI: Top 3 MLO ranks (including ties) = 70.5% of all winners...that's a little short of 80%!