Yes, I believe I understand now. So, your example would qualify because 7 is less than 15% of 47.

I also have my own number that I call "pressure", but I haven't found a correlation to chaos for it.

I think I see the premise for your number. The whole field is supplying more pressure than the high pressure horse can withstand. I have added that to my program to see if I find merit. Thanks.

It's not the whole pace picture.

I do a composite rating on the last 4 races degraded using Fibonacci for the BRIS pace ratings -- 2f, 4f, 6f and Late. That with my pressure rating, QSP and %M numbers give me a pretty good picture of pace. Then I also have regular Sartin style pace factors and my own closing points.

I am a firm believer that looking at anything just one way can give a wrong impression.

Hey Rick- Just for clarification, did you mean less than 15 speed points in the race? Thanks in advance for the clarification.

Hey Rick- Just for clarification, did you mean less than 15 speed points in the race? Thanks in advance for the clarification. — Tony Kofalt

Divide the highest QSP by the total QSP for all horses. If it is less than 15%, the premise is that chaos is possible.

I'm not sure if I have much to offer because, to me, "Chaos Race" means something very different than it seems to mean to you guys.

Not saying you're wrong, but to me it indicates... well, chaos. LOL

Now, I understand that in the mathematical sense, "chaos" really means that order exists where there seems to be no order.

But, my opinion is that when you find a CHAOS RACE, you (essentially) don't handicap it because the handicapping won't select the winner.

My belief being what it is, CHAOS could easily mean HANIDCAPPING WILL FAIL.

I find TWO INSTANCES that consistently produce CHAOS RACES:

• Very Low Odds Horse Loses
• Early Speed Fails

For me, Chaos is when early speed falls apart. Horses known to be closers often win and sometimes at a big price. Most really fast final times are run fast throughout, so when early speed falls apart, a history of high speed ratings is not always required to win. I believe the entire process is predictable.

Dave has a product entitled "Understanding Early Speed".... In one of the later chapters he defines four distinct race shapes based upon "pace pressure" (using Quirin Early Speed Points).... If there is "no discernable pace pressure" or in other words, pace pressure is not predictable, then you have a "chaos" race.... This "process" has served me well and I'll leave it to Dave to elaborate if he so chooses....

Or, I'm sure he'd be pleased if you purchased this excellent product!

BTW, I'm not a shill for Dave and I must admit I've purchased most all of his products.... I've both used and discarded many of his ideas; but without exception, I've found handicapping "nuggets" in all of them!

Dave has a product entitled "Understanding Early Speed".... In one of the later chapters he defines four distinct race shapes based upon "pace pressure" (using Quirin Early Speed Points).... If there is "no discernable pace pressure" or in other words, pace pressure is not predictable, then you have a "chaos" race.... This "process" has served me well and I'll leave it to Dave to elaborate if he so chooses....

Or, I'm sure he'd be pleased if you purchased this excellent product!

BTW, I'm not a shill for Dave and I must admit I've purchased most all of his products.... I've both used and discarded many of his ideas; but without exception, I've found handicapping "nuggets" in all of them! — Jack Price

Just awesome.

I just happen to have a link right here.
Understanding Early Speed

Thank you guys! much appreciated

An idea Pandy wrote about in one of his books was to add the ESPs to the E2 rating in BRIS.
I tried doing that using the first call, E1, best 2 of last 4 with promising results in evaluating thev early horses in the race shap.

I do a time degradation on the last 4 4f pace ratings. That's good for race shape, but I don't know how that fits into chaos.

Race 4 at CD, a classic chaos race. Formal Order got up at 9/1 off a 5/1 ML and 9/1 PL.