Comments

  • BRIS E1/E2/LP
    I have been working on BRIS pace and speed numbers for a while now, and have found some interesting things about them. There is a relationship between pace and speed, that varies by distance.
    I will clean up my data and post some stuff this weekend.
  • Oaklawn Park Handicapping Info 2021-22
    Steven, should be OP instead of GP?
  • Percentages & Probabilities 2022 Seminar
    It is FAR more than I expected. You will not be disappointed.
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    The software looks great!
    Very easy to use - easier than adding up everything by hand. LOL
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    Steven, great job!
    I'm all in on anything you want to substitute. The real name of the idea is the Ultimate Lazy Guy's Oddsline. LOL.
    Thank you for the great work you put in.
  • The Ultimate Odds Line
    E1 in routes, E2 in sprints
  • What's Winning at Gulfstream II (Corrected)
    Good stuff!
    This site is looking promising.
  • The Ultimate Odds Line
    I remember Length Variant. That was a great product.
  • Kinky Handicapping - What's It About?
    I found my copy.
    The premise of the book is that various handicapping situations are described by "Kinky" comparisons.
    Some of the chapter titles are:

    The Inaccurate Conception-Will the horse that was the fastest be the fastest.

    Can there be intense action without love? -The tote board in lesser-of-evils races

    Menage A Trois - How to manage when there is more than one overlay scenario for the same race

    Secret Affairs - The obscure trainer mutuel fund

    All in all, a good book with lot of good ideas, even years later.
  • Your methodology?
    I spend a lot time there, reading old threads. Lots of ideas to had.
  • Another measure of class
    When I was using HTR and had a large database of races, I wrote a report that let me look any race anywhere and how every horse came out of it, where they ran what class, surface, etc, and what speed fig they earned. It was a very useful tool, especially for shippers from tracks I knew little about.
  • Your methodology?
    RW,
    I am a long time Sartin follower, but older Satin, not the newer stuff. Phase III and TPR.
    Lately, I have really digging into Dave's products and just bought Improve/Decline.
    I use BRIS and have been trying to come with things in their Ultimate PPs to use.
    I have come up with a paper and pencil method that is quick (longest thing about it is crossing out the scratches. I will post here this week. Just finishing up the instructions. I have been playing it for about 2 months with good results, using it as a tool.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    Conley,
    I do something very similar, starting at the bottom working up, looking for form cycles and trying to figure out how the horse fits to today's conditions and where his form is today.
  • Anything Better than APV or EPS for a Class Rating?
    My question for EPS/APV would be, what dat do you use?
    Lifetime, this year, this surface, this track?
    My own project of finding out what is winning shows that at FL and BEL the BRIS ACL (class) is hitting at 70%+ for the top 3 on dirt, but on turf, it drops to ~55%.
  • Finding out what wins
    I use most all races, unless it is a MSW with mostly FTS, but if there are 4 horses, I use it. That's why I put notes for MSW 2yos, so I can filter them out.
  • Finding out what wins
    I have enough races at Belmont to post after this weekend.
    Some interest stuff going on there.
  • Finding out what wins
    SRL SPEES LAST RACE
    SRB BACK SPEED
    CCL CURRENT CLASS LEVEL
    ACL AVERAGE COMP LEVEL
    PP PRIME POWER
    E EARLY PACE LAST RACE
    L LATE PACE LAST RACE
    E EP LAST, PLACE HORSE
    L LP LAST, PLACE
    PAY WIMN PAYOFF
    NH NUMBER OF HORSES
  • Finding out what wins
    OK, the attached spreadsheet is my model for FL race track in beautiful downtown Farmington. The data comes right off the 7 columns at the bottom of the BRIS ULTIMATE PPs, Speed last race, back speed, current class, average competitive level, prime power, early pace last race and late pace last race. I also added the E/L rankings 0r the place horse as well, out of curiosity.

    The numbers were taken as is, no substitutes, no influence from me. The summary box in the upper right corner is the "7-4-1" scoring for each column. Field size is included so I can look at small and large fields.

    Next step is break it down by sprint-route, and make Reynolds fields.
    Attachment
    WHAT WINS AT FL.ods (30K)