Thanks, RanchWest. The Derby sure felt like a chaotic race to my bankroll! :)) — Atakante

As a wise man once told me, turn the page.

Price too low? There may be an exotics option.

In short, value and profit go hand-in-hand and is based around winners. We're all going to lose races, but losing doesn't provide much value. So, we need to learn which situations win and which don't.

Primarily three ways:

1) Find the vulnerable favorites

2) Find the longshot setups, which often has to do with pace scenarios, such as chaos.

3) Embrace the solid horses even if the price is low.

By the way, I am not suggesting that all races should be played from the top 3 odds horses. I am just saying that is where most winners will come from. Like, with the races above, 4 winners came from the 5th odds line horse and above. That's about 15%. That might give an idea of a reasonable distribution of selections in the long haul.

I reviewed all of the races at PRX, TDN and FL today, 27 races. The winners as ranked in my odds line were as follows:

Ranked 1: 9
Ranked 2: 7
Ranked 3: 5
Ranked 4: 2
Ranked below 4: 4

So, it is mostly a matter of picking the right one from the odds line. I didn't do very well at that today. The finish of my win selections:

Winners: 7
Place: 6
Show: 8
Out: 6

The concept is not perfect, but it is a good jump into the fray.

Race 10 at CD, 5/7/22

There is a thread called Tom's Ultimate Odds Line. I hope there's still a Windows program there that uses files based around the BRIS single file format (including Multicaps files) and maybe other files. The last release had an additional computation formulated incorrectly and may have been withdrawn. Let me know what you find. I think Tom had released a spreadsheet. If you can't find anything, try the best odds line that you have. The idea is to begin with the favorites, which win so many races, and then see if you find a valid reason to abandon those. I think one of my problems was that I was always looking for the slightly higher odds horses, 4/1 or 5/1 or so, instead of accepting that a 2/1 horse can be a good bet. Yesterday, I thought Jackie's Warrior was a good bet at even money. He looked great on paper and on the track.

The objective is to make a profit. I say well done.

Does this approach work on races with many starters like the Kentucky Derby? For instance, was the Mine That Bird derby a chaos race? — Atakante

The rating for this race was 5.000, very much a chaos potential with 3.2 and above being potential chaos. But it might take several Derby races to establish any sort of pattern.

Do they lower the takeout for the Derby? :lol:

Posted my picks today. Had a very small profit on the day, hit for a lower percentage, 31%. Not every day is spectacular, but the process carried me through.

So if we have 3 lines to sort/weigh, might using a Fibonocci be useful?
Good thread! — Tom

Ted Craven told me how to compute CSR, Composite Speed Rating, which is the speed ratings of the last four races, time decayed through Fibonacci. So, I implemented that for BRIS speed numbers.

Well, I am always tinkering, so I applied the same concept to BRIS pace figures.

I tend to not trust individual numbers and computations... I look at things a lot of different ways and see if they all jive or what the outliers are. So, I take these Composite Pace Ratings (CPR? ha!) and compare them to other pace numbers, such as pace line Early Pace and Late Pace. Once I also look at %Median, %Median for the field, Quirin speed points, etc., I start to get an idea of what the pace should look like.

But, it seems to me, that this still doesn't accomplish what Tony is doing, looking at the actual time line for the form cycle. That concept really interests me.

As baseball manager Johnny Oates said, "Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet."

Another baseball quote I like is from Stan Musial. When asked his secret to being a great hitter, he replied, "Wait for your pitch and swing hard."

You're making me blush, Tony. I'm just a guy who is plagued by questions for which I seek valid answers.

It's a pretty subjective process for me right now. — Tony Kofalt

So, I assume your extensive experience guides you in making these calls, correct?

I find that usually use 3 pacelines each weighed a little differently based on the way I feel the form cycle is moving. This is a great thread — Tony Kofalt

Is that something you are doing through HSH? Is there some automation involved in the form cycle weights or is that pretty much subjective?

Ranch that is AWESOME. Enjoyed the fact that you found YOUR way and are willing to share it! — Biniak

Thanks. The important part of this is that it was a fairly simple tweak to my process. I was lost in the desert and didn't fully comprehend that I was.

By the way, I had at least 5 horses run 2nd. So, that's at least 16 of 21 in 1st or second. All from just a consistent, simple structure of process. The process is what I was lacking. Makes a huge difference. I had been just starting SOMEWHERE and ending SOMEWHERE. I can tell you, that doesn't work... at least it definitely doesn't for me.

Pretty much the short version of all I know is above. But it is the short version and I will gladly share as time permits. My speed analysis and pace analysis is actually quite a bit more detailed.