And, how do we avoid math sucking us into an odds estimation instead of a winner predictor?

If we have the early horse with high speed ratings and good class factors and a good jockey and trainer, the money will almost always be drawn to that horse. Now, I know many of you can find the false favorites out of these types, but how do we get to the actual winner?

Excellent points, Tony. We certainly can't have a longshot winner and a favorite winner at the same time. So, finding a vulnerable favorite is sound.

But how do we get to the longshot? In some cases, I think we need to be somewhat of a contrarian. We know horses with high Quirin speed points will receive some support. But if early speed devolves to chaos, it's often a horse with low Quirin speed points that will get up at a high price.

Anyone have any other thoughts on how to actually get onto the high priced horse?

Thanks for sharing, Conley.

Has anyone given any thought to maybe our traditional handicapping is only geared toward low odds horses? Maybe we need to do something entirely different for longshots?

Interesting. PRX R8 is the race I didn't have in my Top 4... $47.20.

Thanks, Tony. I'd like to see what they find significant about a trip and see if I see anything of value in what they note.

I think it may possibly be helpful if fit into the time sequence. The scratch list is for 45 days. Let's say there's a vet scratch at 30 days and then no works. Or the works thereafter are shorter or slower. Could be a red flag.

My tracks right now are FG and PRX. At FG, only one horse had been a vet scratch and it vet scratched again today.

I think it would be good to model for the track being handicapped. Or, a simple approach would be to use the provided morning line. Tony has a good point about trainers impacting odds. Jockeys impact odds a lot, too. One big factor in jockeys winning is that their agent gets them good mounts. But jockeys tend to run hot and cold in the short term.

Just depends on whether you're trying to evaluate a realistic probability of the horse winning or you're trying to forecast the public wagering. I prefer the former.

Great work, Tom. I'd just point out that this could be implemented with any 5 factors. Using the Fibonacci scale, your equivalent odds line could be used. I suggest research based on modeling for anyone interested in pursuing such a direction. While you've already invented the wheel, maybe some might not want to use the BRIS Ultimate, for whatever reason.

I spend a lot time there, reading old threads. Lots of ideas to had. — Tom

Yeah, it seems like one should slow down on learning after a while, but I just keep learning and learning.

I wrote a report — Tom

Data is powerful.

I am a long time Sartin follower, but older Satin, not the newer stuff. — Tom

I am mostly on the older stuff, too. But I mix in some things from some of the better authors and a few ideas that are not really Sartin from the RDSS people. I throw in a few things I have developed from time to time.

Like I said, I had it Ass-Backwards. — Steven

We just needed Tony to explain it better than I did. :)

I just explained it Bass Ackwards.

We actually had it in our DOS product, the Handicapper's Notebook. (HNB) — Dave Schwartz

Interesting

Not easily available. — Dave Schwartz

This is known as Company Line data. I know it is included in the Multicaps files, but it is not documented... one of those mysterious "reserved for future use" elements. It's the 10 data elements starting at 1,192 in the Multicaps files and I assume in all of the BRIS single file format files. Sorry, I doubt that helps on other data files, but I suspect it is there in most data files. Just probably not documented.

Dave, your greatest asset is your health. Take care of that first and let everything else follow

Yes, thanks, Tony. I probably did not explain it very well.

PP's show which of the top 3 finishers went on to win their next race. I count all the instances of these next out winners. If I recall right, I think the next out winners are italicized in the PP's.

Next out winners are also coming out of what is called a key race if more than one horse has won its next race. I don't have a way of finding any horses except the top 3 finishers. A key race is considered to be a likely source for even more winners.

Sure, Tony. If it leads to any questions, let me know.

Tony, did that answer your question? These were my contenders and how they performed.