Recap of Top 4:

1: 3.60 6.60 12.40
2: 13.00 3.20
3:
4: 8.00 14.80
Out: 4.40 9.60
Ex: 27.30 31.90 29.60 24.50 40.50 5.00
Tri: 4.35
Super: 1.30
Double: 9.50 9.90 30.40 52.20 82.00 11.40
P3: 15.65 30.65 125.30 226.35 68.05
P4: 269.50 536.20
P5: 1,121.80

I didn't get the last two races right.

Would you consider posting a few selections here to help me understand your methodology? — Tony Kofalt

Well, it may be a crazy day at FG, but here are my picks today. I will try to post a recap later.

R1) 5 3 4 1E
R2) 4 6 1 8
R3) 5 1 9 4
R4) 10 3 11 9
R5) 1E 4 6 8
R6 ) 2 4 6 7
R7) 5 2 3 1
r8) 4 6 5 1
r9) 2 8 6 7

I don't know that I would necessarily be representative of Sartin Methodology, but those are my picks anyway.

Hi Ranch, I believe there is a website, paceandcap.com where the Sartin methodology is discussed. You may find it useful — Tony Kofalt

Thanks. I participate there. It's a very good site for Sartin methodology. It does focus primarily on one software product, though. But the host has been very welcoming to me. I have been posting selections there pretty much every day.

I wrote my first handicapping program around 1983, written in BASIC on a TI-99/4A computer, which was fairly powerful for a home computer of the era. Manual input from the DRF. I was just trying to see what I could do with fractional times. I didn't really understand a lot about what I was doing with the output calculations. Now I realize I had calculated what we today call f1, f2 and f3 and I did a few rudimentary factors off of those.

Today, my program is written in Harbour, a language which evolved from dBase and Clipper. My source data is Multicaps files. My output is to HTML, so I can read the files on almost any modern device, including my phone if need be. I've got output for all sorts of things, even silks (to make it easier to watch races). Most of the emphasis is on Sartin methodology, which, in large part, is based around what can be done with those fractional times I was working with in 1983. Needless to say, my program of today is far more advanced. I am still implementing new concepts that I learn or develop.

When I started betting to make a living I became wary of making changes as there is a fine line between winning and losing. — Tony Kofalt

I definitely agree with that!

How do you determine that a race is chaotic? — Dave Schwartz

I measure the early energy and when there are a lot of horses that have similar early energy, the race frequently falls apart. I split the horses into running style categories and when there are horses in only two categories, that's when I look for chaos. There tends to be a lot of horses that vie for the lead and can't hold it.

I like longshot closers in a chaos race for my contrarian urges.

I'm also a diehard contrarian. — William Zayonce

Is there anything in particular that tends to fuel your contrarian fire?

Yep, paper.

It reminds me of the windmill hole at miniature golf. I find it to be a terrible idea. The boxed in horses are boxed in for a reason.

Thanks for sharing.

I think the biggest change in me is how differently I see the races now compared to about 2 years ago. — Colty

Can you tell us more about the differences?

Where a race might be contentious, it can be helpful in horizontals, too. For instance, if you total the top 3 Quirin speed points and get about 18, that race could probably run early OR late. So, include both an early and a late in the horizontal. Just a general guideline, of course.

I like a strategy based on contra energy. If I start with early, I try to add late. And vice-versa.

I see. I get what you're saying. Maybe just a seminar with live races and people could toss up picks if they want.

I think my friend was making about $25,000 a year live at the track, not online. I think that is very good compared to what most people could do. He did have his bills paid off. But he was able to make a lot more at a regular job.

Always enjoy listening to people who do this well enough to go pro. Thanks. — Steven

Yes, I had a friend who went pro for a few years. I was always impressed with how detailed and thorough he was in some matters. He eventually decided he could make more money working a 9/5 and that racing was changing, so he went back to the grind.

I'd like to see some contests for typical racing. I remember the old Aqueduct Inner Dirt P4 contests. That was a lot of fun, though a bit long, the entire season. Maybe a one-day contest followed by discussion.

The horses I have seen have all been lousy at geometry and such.

I think it has to do with class, distribution of energy, proximity to the rail, position relative to the other horses vying for the lead, the composition of the track surface and such. The distance traveled is a fairly minor aspect in my opinion.

What about the trainer? — JRand

One trainer told me that if a jockey wasn't going to put his horses forward, he'd find a jockey who would.